If you want to trade real-money event contracts, compare Kalshi, Polymarket’s distinct U.S. and offshore venues, and event-contract offerings distributed through brokerages or sports companies. They differ in structure, markets, access and rules; none should be assumed available or lawful for every person or location. If you want forecasting without a conventional cash market, the available evidence here is not enough to recommend a specific service.
What a prediction market price means
In a prediction market, participants buy and sell contracts tied to an event outcome. The Congressional Research Service (CRS) describes prices as emerging through continued trading toward an equilibrium. A CFTC-hosted public-comment submission describes a common yes-or-no contract: a trader buys the side they think will happen, and the price can be read as the market’s implied probability. In that example, a correct side typically pays $1 per contract.
That price is not certainty, an objective forecast or a guarantee of what will happen. It reflects what participants are willing to trade at; it can also be affected by the particular contract, its rules and the available liquidity. The mechanics in the public-comment submission are a stakeholder’s description, not a CFTC determination.
How the main alternatives differ
These are examples identified by CRS, not a complete or ranked directory. The activity figures below are historical category shares reported in its 2026 snapshot, not current totals or measures of liquidity in any individual contract.
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| Option | Structure and distinctions | Reported activity snapshot | What is not established here |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | CRS characterizes Kalshi as a CFTC-regulated exchange and reports a broad range of event categories. | About 87% of Kalshi’s $39.7 billion traded in the prior year was sports-related, according to CRS as of February 2026. | Current eligibility by location, specific contract rules and settlement sources, fees, funding costs, and liquidity for a particular market. |
| Polymarket | CRS distinguishes a large offshore exchange, which it says claims to block U.S. users, from a smaller CFTC-approved exchange available to U.S. customers. They are distinct venues; do not assume their access, rules or settlement are the same. | Sports accounted for 38% of Polymarket’s $36.2 billion traded in the prior year, in the same CRS snapshot. | Current venue-specific eligibility, contract rules and settlement sources, fees, funding costs, and liquidity for a particular market. |
| Brokerage or sports-company distribution | CRS names Robinhood, DraftKings and FanDuel as offering event contracts, with differing business practices. Their mention does not establish identical exchange structures or inventories. | Not stated in the CRS figures cited here. | Current product availability, exchange structure, market inventory, eligibility, fees, contract rules and settlement, and liquidity. |
| Forecasting without a conventional cash market | Manifold and Metaculus were considered as possible alternatives, but the available material does not substantiate their current mechanics or terms. | Not stated. | Whether a given service currently fits this use case, and its mechanics, access, rules or terms. |
The two sports percentages describe each platform’s reported prior-year traded volume, not the share of all non-sports markets, and they do not tell you how liquid a specific contract is. The figures come from CRS’s 2026 snapshot and should not be treated as current totals.
Choose by the kind of market you need
If exchange structure is your priority
Kalshi is the example CRS identifies as a CFTC-regulated exchange. That distinction may matter to someone comparing venue structure, but it does not establish that a particular contract is available to you, legally settled nationwide, or a good fit. Confirm the current rules and your own eligibility before acting.
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If you are comparing Polymarket
First identify which Polymarket venue you mean. CRS describes an offshore exchange that claims to block U.S. users and a separate, smaller CFTC-approved exchange available to U.S. customers. Treat each as its own option rather than transferring assumptions about access or contract terms from one to the other.
If you are considering a brokerage or sports-company offering
Robinhood, DraftKings and FanDuel are additional names to compare, not interchangeable substitutes. Check the particular product’s contract inventory and structure rather than assuming that an event contract offered through one has the same rules, fees or availability as one offered through another.
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If you want forecasting rather than a cash trade
Do not assume that a forecasting service works like a real-money exchange or offers cash-settled contracts. The current mechanics and terms for Manifold and Metaculus are not established by the available material, so verify those directly before treating either as a substitute.
Check the contract and your access before trading
Platform names alone do not answer whether a trade is accessible, affordable or comparable. Review the actual contract and your circumstances, because current fees, eligibility and settlement terms were not independently verified in the sources summarized here and may change.
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- Check your location and eligibility. Read the platform’s current access terms for your jurisdiction and account type; do not infer permission from another state, country or venue.
- Read the contract rules. Identify the precise event definition, what counts as an outcome, the resolution source and the settlement process. A contract’s wording governs what it pays on, not a general interpretation of the event.
- Calculate the full cost. Confirm trading fees and any funding or withdrawal costs in the current terms. No current fee schedule is established here.
- Assess liquidity in the specific market. Check the actual prices and ability to enter or exit the contract you want. Platform-wide volume figures cannot establish liquidity for that contract.
- Consider the unsettled legal landscape. The federal and state treatment of event contracts, especially sports contracts, remains contested. Review current legal and platform information rather than treating any broad description as nationwide clearance.
Why legality and availability are not simple nationwide yes-or-no questions
The CFTC administers the federal derivatives framework, but the boundary between event contracts and state or tribal gaming authority is being litigated. CRS reports that current CFTC leadership asserts exclusive federal jurisdiction over contracts on registered designated contract markets, while states have challenged that position. CRS also notes the CFTC may review exchange self-certifications and that the Commodity Exchange Act identifies categories, including gaming and certain unlawful activities, that may be deemed contrary to the public interest. These points describe an evolving dispute, not settled permission everywhere.
In February 2025, then-Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham said that the “current Commission interpretations regarding event contracts are a sinkhole of legal uncertainty and an inappropriate constraint on the new Administration.” CRS reproduces that statement; it is Pham’s attributed view at that time, not a neutral finding that resolves the legal questions.
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