USDA cut its forecast for 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks by 86 million bushels, to 1.567 billion, in its September 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). The reduction was 39 million bushels larger than industry expectations. It reflects a sharply lower production forecast, partly offset by a reduction in expected domestic use; projected exports were unchanged.
What the September WASDE changed
The September WASDE lowered the forecast for corn remaining at the end of the 2026/27 marketing year. In the report’s words, the outlook was for “smaller supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks.” The marketing year begins September 1, so this is a forecast for the crop year running from September 2026 through August 2027—not a count of corn physically in storage on a particular date.
| 2026/27 U.S. corn balance-sheet item | September 2026 estimate | Change from August |
|---|---|---|
| Beginning stocks | 1.922 billion bushels | Down 23 million bushels |
| Production | 15.8 billion bushels | Down 213 million bushels |
| Total supply | 17.747 billion bushels | Down 236 million bushels |
| Feed and residual use | 5.950 billion bushels | Down 150 million bushels |
| Total use | 16.180 billion bushels | Down 150 million bushels |
| Exports | 3.3 billion bushels | Unchanged |
| Ending stocks | 1.567 billion bushels | Down 86 million bushels |
These are USDA’s September 2026 forecast figures as reported in the September WASDE and summarized by the Iowa Farm Bureau. The 2026/27 season-average farm price forecast was $4.80 per bushel, up 30 cents from August. That is a USDA marketing-year forecast, not a current local cash bid or a guaranteed price farmers will receive.
Why the ending-stocks forecast fell
USDA lowered production
The projected 2026/27 crop fell 213 million bushels from the prior month to 15.8 billion. USDA cut its yield estimate by 2.2 bushels per acre, to 178.5, and slightly reduced harvested area to 88.5 million acres. Together with the 23-million-bushel reduction in beginning stocks, the production change brought total projected supply down 236 million bushels to 17.747 billion.
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Lower use offset part of the supply decline
USDA reduced feed and residual use by 150 million bushels, to 5.950 billion, and lowered total use by the same amount, to 16.180 billion. Exports remained at 3.3 billion bushels. Because the projected reduction in use did not fully offset the decrease in supply, the ending-stocks forecast fell by 86 million bushels.
How much larger the cut was than expected
The 86-million-bushel reduction was 39 million bushels greater than the industry expected, according to the Iowa Farm Bureau’s recap. That comparison is about the size of the month-to-month cut, not a claim that the final stocks estimate was 39 million bushels below every trader’s forecast.
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Market movement around the report also shows why a tighter forecast does not guarantee that prices rise. Iowa Farm Bureau reported that December corn futures had climbed 18 cents to $5.43 ahead of the WASDE, then dropped 13 cents within an hour after its release; March futures moved from $5.58 to $5.45. Those are contemporaneous futures moves, not evidence that one balance-sheet figure alone caused the price change. Traders were responding to the full report and the expectations already reflected in prices.
Do not confuse the forecast with the later stocks report
On September 30, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released a separate estimate of old-crop corn physically held on September 1, 2026. NASS reported 2.10 billion bushels, 35% more than a year earlier. Of that total, 787 million bushels were on farms, up 22%, and 1.31 billion were off farms, up 44%. NASS also estimated June–August disappearance at 3.20 billion bushels, compared with 3.09 billion during the same period in 2025. See the USDA NASS Grain Stocks report.
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S&P Global reported the September 1 figure more precisely as 2.095 billion bushels, versus trade expectations of roughly 1.911–1.918 billion and the September WASDE’s 1.922-billion estimate for 2025/26 ending stocks. December CBOT corn futures fell 21.25 cents to $5.0075 per bushel on September 30, according to S&P Global Energy. The higher-than-expected stocks estimate was attributed in part to lower-than-expected feed and residual use, despite a downward production revision.
The two 1.922-billion figures refer to the same old-crop carryout in different report contexts: the September WASDE’s 2025/26 ending-stocks estimate and the September 1 old-crop stock level later revised by NASS. The WASDE’s 1.567-billion figure is different: it is the forecast for 2026/27 ending stocks. A physical stocks estimate and a marketing-year balance-sheet forecast are related, but they are not interchangeable.
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U.S. bushels and global stocks are different measures
The September report also put global 2026/27 corn ending stocks at 272.10 million metric tons, down 2.56 million metric tons from August, according to the Iowa Farm Bureau recap. That is a world estimate in metric tons; it should not be directly compared with U.S. ending stocks stated in bushels. WASDE is USDA’s monthly outlook for supply and use of major agricultural commodities, prepared by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. For a clear comparison, identify the crop year, geography, unit, whether the figure is a forecast or physical-stock estimate, and the comparison point—prior month, prior year, or trade expectation.
What was known after the September reports
As of October 8, 2026, the October WASDE had not been released; it was scheduled for October 9. The September 30 Grain Stocks report was later information than the September WASDE and could affect the starting-inventory picture in the next balance sheet. No October WASDE result should be inferred from the September figures.
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