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Arkansas Farmers’ Projected 2025 Crop Losses: Corn, Cotton, Rice and Soybeans

A University of Arkansas report projected negative 2025 state-average net returns for corn, cotton, long-grain rice and soybeans. Here’s what the estimates include and why farm results vary.
From TheFinanceBase Team2 min to read
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A University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture analysis projected negative 2025 state-average net returns for all four major crops it examined: corn, cotton, long-grain rice and soybeans. The estimates are modeled projections—not final results—and range from a projected loss of $85.02 per acre for soybeans to $352.75 per acre for cotton.

Projected 2025 net returns by crop

The figures below come from The State of the Arkansas Crop Economy in 2025 (MP588), by University of Arkansas agricultural economists Hunter D. Biram, Ryan Loy and H. Scott Stiles. They are state-average expected net returns per acre, calculated from projected revenue less the report’s operating-cost and rent assumptions. A negative return means modeled revenue did not cover those costs.

Crop Expected net return per acre
Corn −$273.71
Cotton −$352.75
Long-grain rice −$258.84
Soybeans −$85.02

These are the report’s projections based on information and assumptions available in 2025, not verified realized outcomes. The MP588 report presents expected yields, prices, revenue, operating costs and rent alongside the net-return estimates.

What the estimates include—and leave out

The analysis combines expected crop yields and prices with operating expenses and a rent assumption. The state-average yield projections were linked to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production Report of August 12, 2025; expected prices were drawn from USDA’s August 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. These inputs make the figures a snapshot of expectations at the time, not a guarantee of what any farm would earn.

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MP588 cautions that its state-level expected net returns may be an upper-bound estimate. The authors noted that yield projections may have been lower because late plantings followed record rainfall in April 2025. The crop-return figures also are not complete farm-level profit-and-loss statements: the illustrative crop budgets exclude fixed costs such as equipment loans, depreciation and other overhead.

Why an Arkansas farm’s result may differ

A state average cannot account for every farm’s yields, crop prices, input bills or financing. Land-rental terms matter too; county-level examples in the report use particular crop-share assumptions, which should not be treated as universal. Location, production system and each operation’s cost structure can all change the outcome.

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The report describes pressure from the relationship between crop prices and the prices farmers pay for inputs. Its authors characterized the gap between output prices received and input prices paid as the greatest in at least 25 years—a description made in the 2025 report, not a claim about conditions in 2026. The release also discussed fertilizer and other input expenses, labor, rent and interest. In one rice-budget illustration, per-acre interest expenses were $15 higher than in 2021; that comparison applies to the report’s example, not every borrower or farm.

What the report said about farm assistance

The October 2025 release discussed the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) and Supplemental Disaster Assistance Program (SDRP). Hunter Biram said assistance through those programs would not fully close the gap in multiyear declines in net farm income. That assessment reflects the release’s 2025 context; it does not establish current eligibility, payment terms or program availability.

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Where to read the analysis

The university’s October 8, 2025 news release summarizes the findings, while the full MP588 report provides the underlying crop budgets, county examples and scenarios. Both sources concern the 2025 analysis; no current 2026 forecast or verified final per-acre result for 2025 is established here.

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