China sharply reduced its agricultural trade with the United States in 2025, and tariffs have pushed many Chinese commercial buyers toward South American soybeans. But China has not disappeared from the U.S. soybean market: USDA data published in September 2026 records substantial purchases of U.S. beans for the next marketing year. The shift is real, but it is neither a complete break nor proof that other importers can absorb the displaced U.S. crop.
How much U.S. trade with China fell
China dropped to sixth among U.S. agricultural export markets in 2025. The USDA Economic Research Service reported that total U.S. agricultural exports to China fell 66 percent from 2024, to $8.4 billion. That figure covers agriculture broadly; it is not a measure of soybean exports alone.
Soybean trade has its own chronology and measures. In its 2025 China oilseeds annual report, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast Chinese soybean imports of 106 million metric tons for marketing year 2025/26. That was a forecast, not a final observed import total. The forecast also describes China’s imports from all origins, not its purchases from U.S. farmers specifically.
Why Chinese buyers shifted toward South America
Tariffs affect the delivered price
USDA’s September 4, 2026 China oilseeds update says China’s 10 percent retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans has led commercial buyers to rely on South American origins. A tariff raises the cost of U.S. beans to Chinese buyers and makes them less competitive against alternatives. It is an important factor in sourcing decisions, but not the only one.
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Price, seasonality and logistics matter too
USDA’s 2025 annual analysis attributes Brazil’s share gains in China in large part to a persistent price advantage for Brazilian soybeans. The U.S. tariff also narrows the seasonal shipping window in which American beans are competitive. Availability, exportable supply and the logistics of moving a crop all constrain how quickly buyers can change origins.
In its September 2026 update, USDA said Brazil sent record volumes to China from June through August 2026. It identifies Brazil, the United States and Argentina as China’s three major soybean suppliers. The evidence points to trade diversion among established origins, not a simple switch that can happen without regard to price, harvest timing or shipping capacity.
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Is China buying U.S. soybeans again?
Yes, according to the latest purchase data in USDA’s September 4, 2026 update. As of August 13, Chinese buyers had purchased 5.7 million metric tons of U.S. new-crop soybeans for delivery in marketing year 2026/27. That is a reported sale for a future delivery period, not evidence that those beans had already been shipped.
The same USDA update listed another 3.8 million metric tons of new-crop U.S. soybeans sold to unknown destinations. USDA says such sales can indicate purchases by Chinese state-owned enterprises. They are not confirmed China sales, so they should not be added to the China-specific 5.7 million metric tons as though the destination were known.
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| Measure | What USDA reported | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Total U.S. agricultural exports to China | $8.4 billion in calendar year 2025, down 66 percent from 2024 | All agriculture, not soybeans alone; USDA ERS |
| U.S. new-crop soybean sales to China | 5.7 million metric tons as of August 13, 2026 | For delivery in marketing year 2026/27; USDA FAS |
| U.S. new-crop soybean sales to unknown destinations | 3.8 million metric tons as of August 13, 2026 | Destination is unconfirmed; USDA says these sales can indicate Chinese state-owned enterprise purchases |
| China’s soybean imports | 106 million metric tons forecast for marketing year 2025/26 | A dated 2025 USDA forecast covering all origins, not a final total or U.S.-only figure |
Who else is buying U.S. soybeans?
There is not enough destination-specific volume information here to name other countries as replacement buyers or say how much U.S. soybean production they can absorb. The broad decline in U.S. agricultural exports to China does not identify where soybean shipments went instead. Nor does a sale reported to an unknown destination establish a final buyer.
USDA ERS’s U.S. Agricultural Trade Data page provides monthly export tables and a top-ten soybean export-market ranking. The ranking was updated October 8, 2026, with the next update listed for November 6, 2026. Those destination-level figures are the appropriate basis for a current buyer ranking; the all-agriculture China figure is not a substitute for them.
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- Easy to Grow - Instructions included on each packet. Plus, we are available to answer all your questions. If these seeds don’t germinate, we will happily make it right for you.
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Can Brazil replace the U.S. in China?
Brazil is a major competing supplier and recently sent record soybean volumes to China, but that does not establish that it can replace all U.S. shipments. USDA identifies Brazil, the United States and Argentina as China’s principal origins and notes that production availability and logistics constrain shifts among them. A full comparison would also need current delivered prices, tariff treatment, shipping windows and verified sales volumes by destination.
The practical distinction is between China changing its source of soybeans and U.S. farmers finding different buyers. Brazil and Argentina are suppliers to China; they are competitors for that market, not alternative importers of U.S. soybeans. The available figures do not show that other importing countries can take all the U.S. volume China may forgo at comparable prices.
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