The EPA’s June 2025 proposal to cut Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credit value for imported renewable fuel and fuel made from foreign feedstocks prompted warnings that compliance costs—and potentially consumer energy costs—could rise. But that import-credit reduction did not become final policy: EPA’s March 27, 2026, rule for 2026 and 2027 omitted it. The warnings were forecasts from industry groups, not evidence of a measured increase in what consumers paid.
What the original proposal would have changed
The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requires refiners and other obligated parties to meet renewable-fuel requirements by blending fuel into the U.S. supply or obtaining Renewable Identification Number credits from parties that do. A RIN represents an ethanol-equivalent gallon of renewable fuel.
In its June 2025 proposal, EPA proposed reducing the number or value of credits generated by imported renewable fuel and renewable fuel made with foreign feedstocks. The agency described the approach as favoring domestic fuels and feedstocks. In practice, the proposal could have changed the economics of sourcing inputs such as soybean oil, used cooking oil and animal fat. It was a proposal, not a restriction that EPA later put into the final 2026–2027 rule.
EPA’s proposed biomass-based diesel targets were 7.12 billion RINs for 2026 and 7.50 billion for 2027. Those figures were proposal-era RIN totals, not final gallon mandates. For context, the 2025 biomass-based diesel mandate was 3.35 billion gallons, according to Reuters’ account of the then-current requirement and EPA’s 2023–2025 rule.
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Why trade groups warned about costs
Refiners and biofuel interests disagreed over how the proposed credit treatment could affect businesses and consumers. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) warned that reducing credit value could make renewable-fuel production assets less viable and raise compliance costs for obligated parties. Its head, Chet Thompson, told Reuters: “This credit restriction … will jeopardize the economic viability of renewable fuel production assets and raise overall compliance costs for all obligated parties, which ultimately harms U.S. consumers.”
The Advanced Biofuels Association likewise argued that the proposal could put a premium on domestic feedstocks relative to imported ones and raise costs. Reuters also reported industry analyses estimating that a domestic-feedstocks-only scenario could yield 4.45 billion gallons in 2026. That was an industry scenario, not EPA’s final projection or an observed production total. Biofuels industry groups and the American Petroleum Institute lobbied for mandates of at least 5.25 billion gallons; that was their position, not the rule EPA ultimately adopted.
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The coalition was not unanimous. Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor supported building domestic capacity rather than relying on imported used cooking oil or preferential treatment for Brazilian feedstocks. She told Reuters: “American farmers need all the demand they can get. We should be developing our capacity here, rather than relying on imported used cooking oil from China, or giving Brazilian feedstocks preferential treatment at the expense of U.S. producers and their farm partners.” These statements describe stakeholder arguments and forecasts; they do not establish that consumers experienced a particular price increase.
What EPA finalized for 2026 and 2027
EPA announced its final 2026–2027 RFS rule on March 27, 2026. It set applicable biomass-based diesel requirements at 9.07 billion RINs for 2026 and 9.20 billion RINs for 2027, including reallocation of small-refinery exemptions. These are RIN figures, not direct gallon totals, and they differ from the numbers in the 2025 proposal.
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Most importantly for the cost warning, EPA’s final rule did not include the proposed import RIN reduction. In its response to comments, EPA said the final volumes would likely require imported feedstocks. The agency estimated that domestic feedstocks would supply 4.5 billion gallons of biomass-based diesel in 2026 and 4.7 billion gallons in 2027. Those feedstock estimates are gallons, not RIN totals.
| Measure | Proposal-era position or figure | Final rule or later estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Status and date | EPA proposed the rule on June 13, 2025. | EPA announced the final rule on March 27, 2026. |
| Imported fuel and foreign-feedstock fuel | EPA proposed reducing the RIN value for imported renewable fuel and fuel made with foreign feedstocks. | The final rule did not include that proposed reduction; EPA said final volumes would likely require imported feedstocks. |
| Biomass-based diesel RINs | 7.12 billion for 2026 and 7.50 billion for 2027, in EPA’s proposal. | 9.07 billion for 2026 and 9.20 billion for 2027, in EPA’s final rule; the figures include reallocated small-refinery exemptions. |
| Domestic-feedstock output | 4.45 billion gallons in a 2026 domestic-feedstocks-only industry scenario reported by Reuters; not an EPA final projection. | EPA estimated 4.5 billion gallons in 2026 and 4.7 billion in 2027 from domestic feedstocks, and said imports would likely be needed to meet the final volumes. |
| Consumer-price effect | Trade groups forecast possible cost effects from the proposal. | A measured consumer-price effect attributable to the final rule is not stated in the cited sources. |
EPA’s proposal and final rule pages provide the agency’s descriptions of the respective actions: the June 2025 proposal and the March 2026 final rule. The agency’s response to comments explains its treatment of the proposed import provision and feedstock estimates.
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What the figures do—and do not—say about consumer prices
The original warning was that a change in RIN economics might increase compliance costs and that some of those costs could ultimately reach consumers. That is a plausible concern raised by industry stakeholders, not a documented pump-price or home-heating increase. The final rule did not adopt the import-credit reduction at issue, and the cited sources do not isolate a realized consumer-price effect from the final rule or from its omission.
There is a separate concern about delay. In March 2026, Clean Fuels Alliance America said six trade associations urged President Trump to finalize the RFS promptly, arguing that uncertainty and delay constrained domestic supply. The groups were Clean Fuels Alliance America, American Soybean Association, National Energy & Fuels Institute, National Oilseed Processors Association, North American Renderers Association and U.S. Canola Association. The alliance reported that the industry produced more than 5 billion gallons of biodiesel and renewable diesel in 2024, meeting 10% of U.S. on-road diesel demand, and had 6.5 billion gallons of existing capacity. It also said nearly 1.8 billion gallons of capacity had been idled the prior year, attributing that to regulatory uncertainty and delays. These are industry figures and the association’s stated explanation, not an independent measurement of how much production the final rule will add.
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The later debate highlights a trade-off: groups seeking stronger domestic production argued that predictable policy could support investment and supply, while EPA’s final feedstock estimates still anticipated imports. Neither position by itself establishes what consumers will pay.
Sources: Reuters, August 1, 2025; Clean Fuels Alliance America, March 17, 2026.
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