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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesChina’s African swine fever outbreak caused a severe but temporary pork-market shock. From late 2018 to early 2021, China lost an estimated 27.9 million metric tons of pork output—about 18 percent of the production expected under normal conditions. Imports replaced only about one-fifth of that loss, while consumer pork prices rose 109 percent and stayed at record levels for 14 months. The resulting import surge redirected global trade, but China’s production returned to its pre-outbreak level in 2021.
How did African swine fever affect China’s pork market?
African swine fever (ASF) reached China in 2018 after spreading from Europe, then moved across the country in less than a year, according to the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS). The disease is highly lethal to pigs, and the outbreak led to a sharp decline in China’s swine herd and pork production.
ERS estimates that China lost 27.9 million metric tons of pork output over the 30-month decline-and-recovery period from late 2018 to early 2021. That was 18 percent of the output estimated as normal—that is, what production might have been without the epidemic. The figure measures cumulative production lost during the period, not the size of the pig herd at one point in time.
A contemporaneous ERS report put China’s swine inventory 41 percent below its year-earlier level in September 2019. That inventory comparison is a snapshot, not an alternative estimate of the total pork-output loss.
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Why did China import so much pork?
With domestic supply sharply reduced, China bought more pork abroad. But imports could not replace most of the missing production: ERS says they made up only about one-fifth of the output lost to ASF. The shortfall left total pork supply tighter even as foreign shipments increased.
The demand surge affected exporters including the European Union, the United States, Canada and Brazil. U.S. pork and pork-product exports to China reached $1.3 billion in 2019, a 128 percent increase from 2018, using U.S. Census Bureau trade data, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). That is export value, not a measure of tonnage or a ranking of suppliers by volume.
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At the time, ASF-related production losses were also lifting broader international meat trade. The FAO’s December 2019 outlook forecast world meat exports of 36 million tonnes, up 6.7 percent from 2018, principally because China was importing more amid domestic losses. Those figures were a forecast and contemporaneous assessment, not final audited trade results.
How did China’s pig epidemic affect pork prices?
Reduced domestic supply showed up in Chinese consumer prices. ERS estimates that pork prices rose 109 percent and remained at record levels for 14 months, from November 2019 through January 2021. This is a historical measure of China’s outbreak-era price spike, not an indication of current prices.
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The combination of higher Chinese import demand and tighter supply also raised frozen pig-meat quotations internationally, according to FAO’s 2019 outlook. The market effects were uneven: the evidence establishes a significant demand boost for exporting countries, but does not provide a complete, comparable ranking of suppliers’ export volumes or shares of China’s imports.
Did China’s pork production recover after African swine fever?
Yes. ERS reports that official Chinese pork production returned to its pre-ASF level in 2021, completing a roughly 30-month decline-and-recovery cycle. As domestic production rebounded and prices fell, exports to China from major suppliers declined. The outbreak’s “long shadow” was therefore a lasting reminder of how quickly animal disease can redirect trade—not evidence that China remained in a continuous pork shortage.
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Why did an outbreak in China matter to the world market?
China’s scale helps explain the global reach of the shock. USDA FAS’s current 2025/26 marketing-year estimate puts Chinese pork production at 59.38 million metric tons, or 49.7 percent of global production. These are revisable estimates, not statistics about the 2018 outbreak, and they do not establish present import demand or prices. They do show why a major disruption to Chinese production can have consequences well beyond China.
What the outbreak does—and does not—say about ASF
A 2019 ERS account described ASF as a disease that does not affect people, but is highly lethal to swine; it also reported that no vaccine or cure was then available. That is the account’s historical description, not current veterinary guidance. The market figures in this article concern pork supply, prices and trade rather than risks to human health.
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