The latest forecast identified for Social Security’s 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) was 3.5%, according to an August 2026 report citing The Senior Citizens League. That is a projection, not an official Social Security Administration (SSA) decision. As of October 7, 2026, the SSA had not announced the 2027 COLA in the sources reviewed.
What is the 2027 Social Security COLA forecast?
The Senior Citizens League’s forecast was 3.5% in August 2026, down from its 3.6% estimate in July, as reported by Kiplinger. The estimate was provisional: the September inflation data needed for the calculation had not yet been released when the August forecast was reported.
That figure is not an SSA determination, and it should not be treated as the amount benefits will rise. Forecasts can change as the relevant inflation data arrive.
When will the official 2027 COLA be announced?
The SSA’s COLA page said the agency would announce the next adjustment in October 2026. A CBS News report anticipated an announcement on October 14, following release of the September Consumer Price Index data. That date was a reported expectation, not a substitute for the SSA’s announcement.
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For the official figure, check the SSA’s COLA information page. The 3.5% estimate is not official unless and until the SSA announces it.
How does the SSA calculate the COLA?
The annual adjustment is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The SSA compares the CPI-W average for the third quarter—July, August, and September—with the relevant third-quarter average used for the last COLA determination. The change in those averages determines the adjustment under the agency’s method.
That is why July and August readings alone cannot settle the 2027 COLA. The full third-quarter comparison, including September data, is needed before the official percentage can be established.
How does the forecast compare with recent COLAs?
The last settled comparison is the 2026 COLA: the SSA set it at 2.8%. The increase began with Social Security benefits payable in January 2026; the SSI increase began December 31, 2025, according to the SSA’s 2026 COLA fact sheet.
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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →A projected 3.5% for 2027 would be higher than 2026’s 2.8%, but it is below the 2023 COLA. So the phrase “biggest boost since COVID” needs a specific comparison year: the 3.5% estimate should not be described as the largest adjustment of the pandemic period or as a final figure. The forecast coverage characterized it as among the largest in recent years, not a record.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What would a 3.5% forecast mean for your own benefit?
The percentage is a national adjustment, not an individual net-benefit promise. Multiplying a current gross benefit by 3.5% would only produce an illustration based on the forecast; it would not establish your personal payment or take-home increase. Your own adjusted benefit and any deductions are reflected in your SSA notice.
The SSA says benefit notices are available through the Message Center in a my Social Security account. Check that notice for your personal amount rather than relying on a forecast or a generic calculation. The SSA estimated nearly 71 million beneficiaries would receive the 2026 Social Security COLA in its 2026 fact sheet.
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