Official development finance to Southeast Asia fell to US$26.1 billion in 2024, down 9.8% from US$28.9 billion in 2023. The Lowy Institute’s 2026 Southeast Asia Aid Map analysis identifies traditional bilateral partners as the main source of the decline, while multilateral development banks stepped up. China’s finance also fell, so it did not replace the retreating bilateral funding. The 2024 figures are the latest year with comprehensive data; 2025 figures are estimates and projections, not confirmed totals.
What the 2026 report measures
The Lowy Institute’s report examines official development finance (ODF) flowing to Southeast Asia. ODF is broader than official development assistance (ODA): it covers multiple forms of official development finance, rather than only the narrower ODA category. The report-linked analysis presents 2024 as the latest year of comprehensive data and supplements it with estimates and projections for 2025. Read the Lowy Institute’s 2026 analysis.
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The Institute’s interactive Southeast Asia Aid Map describes a separate dataset tracking US$290 billion across 130,000 projects from 2015 through 2023. It lets readers compare finance by donor, recipient, sector, and time period, and explore country profiles with project-level detail. Those scope figures describe the map’s 2015–2023 dataset, not the full period of findings in the 2026 report.
Why did regional finance fall in 2024?
Traditional bilateral partners supplied US$8.7 billion in ODF in 2024, a decrease of US$1.1 billion, or 11.6%, from the previous year. Japan’s reduction drove the overall decline, even as France, Germany, South Korea, and the United Kingdom increased their finance. The Lowy analysis says multilateral development banks (MDBs), including the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, stepped up as bilateral donors pulled back.
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The shift matters because a stronger contribution from MDBs did not prevent the overall regional total from shrinking. It also means that “aid” is not a single source or financing channel: the balance between country-to-country partners and multilateral institutions changed in 2024.
Did China fill the shortfall?
No. Chinese ODF to Southeast Asia was US$3.67 billion in 2024, down 22.7% from US$4.74 billion in 2023. China’s share of bilateral ODF averaged about 20% across 2015–2024, but was around 14.5% from 2022, according to the Lowy Institute’s analysis. China therefore did not offset the retreat from other bilateral partners in 2024. Lowy’s analysis of China’s role provides further context.
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Infrastructure finance is concentrated among a few funders
Six financiers accounted for 90% of Southeast Asia’s infrastructure spending in 2024. The largest named shares were:
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| Financier | Share of regional infrastructure spending in 2024 |
|---|---|
| China | About 31% |
| Japan | 21% |
| Asian Development Bank | 17% |
| World Bank | 10% |
These are shares of infrastructure spending, not of all ODF. China’s infrastructure share was 39% across 2015–2024, compared with about 31% in 2024. The figures show that China remains a major infrastructure financier even as its overall ODF to the region declined.
What development finance supports
The Lowy Institute says ODF continues to support infrastructure, health, education, social assistance, and domestic policy reform. It particularly supports lower-income Southeast Asian countries and emerging economies such as Indonesia and the Philippines. The Institute also assesses that a higher share of regional ODF goes to social protection than the global average, but that this focus has stagnated outside crisis periods. The available analysis does not state a numerical share for social protection.
Finance across these areas can come through different donors and modalities, including grants and loans. The figures summarized here do not provide a full 2026 breakdown by financing modality, recipient, or sector, so they should not be used to infer how much each country or program received.
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What to make of the 2025 outlook
The Lowy Institute’s initial estimate is that total ODF fell by at least another US$800 million in 2025. A separate report-linked projection puts the additional reduction from traditional bilateral partners at US$1.76 billion. Both are forward-looking estimates or projections, not comprehensive observed totals, and the second figure concerns traditional bilateral partners rather than all ODF. They should not be added together as though they were two confirmed declines in the same category.
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