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The two stocks named in this headline—and whether either is actually more than 35% below its record high—cannot be verified from the available information. Without the companies and a date for the price comparison, it would be misleading to label either stock a buy. A large share-price decline is a reason to investigate, not proof that a business is impaired or undervalued.
Why the two stocks cannot be identified here
The available source does not identify the two companies in the headline or verify their record highs, current prices, or drawdowns. It discusses software stocks generally and gives examples from an investment fund’s portfolio commentary; those examples are not established as the headline’s picks. Assigning their names or figures to the two unidentified stocks would risk attributing the wrong performance and investment case.
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Forager Funds describes a broad software sell-off amid concern that artificial intelligence could let customers build alternatives to established software. Its commentary names Catapult (ASX:CAT), Bravura (ASX:BVS), and Sage Group (LON:SGE), among other companies, as examples in its own portfolio discussion—not as the two stocks in this headline. Its company figures and share-price movements refer to those examples and stated periods, not to the unidentified picks. Forager Funds’ commentary is an investment manager’s view, not confirmation of the headline’s claims.
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What a 35% drawdown does—and does not—tell you
A drawdown measures a share price against a prior high. It does not, by itself, show whether revenue, earnings, customer demand, or the company’s competitive position has worsened. Nor does it establish that a stock is cheap: that depends on the price relative to future cash flows and the risks to those cash flows.
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Before treating a decline as an opportunity, an investor needs to know the comparison’s dates and currency, whether the “record” means an intraday high or a closing price, and whether the quoted current price is adjusted for relevant corporate actions. Those details are not established for the headline’s two companies.
How to assess an identified software stock
Once the companies are known, evaluate each business and its valuation separately. A useful review would compare:
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- Drawdown and timing: Confirm the record high, the measurement date, and how much of the decline reflects a broad sector sell-off versus company-specific news.
- Revenue and earnings: Check recent company filings for growth, margins, and guidance. A falling share price can precede deteriorating results, but it can also reflect lower expectations rather than an already-impaired business.
- Cash generation and debt: Examine operating cash flow, investment needs, and debt obligations to understand whether the company can fund its operations and adapt.
- Customer retention and reliance: Look for evidence about renewals, customer concentration, and how deeply the product is embedded in customers’ workflows.
- Valuation assumptions: Ask what future growth and profitability the current price requires. A stock can remain expensive after a steep decline if expected results have fallen as much as—or more than—the share price.
- Exposure to AI competition: Consider whether AI could make the product easier to replace, put pressure on pricing, or instead help the provider improve its offering and lower development or support costs.
How AI risk may differ across software companies
Forager’s view is that AI may benefit some established software providers as well as threaten them. It argues that valuable data and systems deeply embedded in business operations may make certain incumbents more resilient, while acknowledging that some companies could lose customers, face pricing pressure, or see their products become less valuable. That is Forager’s investment opinion; it does not establish that either unidentified stock has those protective characteristics or is a sound investment.
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What would be needed to support a buy case
A defensible case for either stock would require identifying the companies and checking the claimed drawdowns against dated market data, then weighing that price history against current filings, valuation, and competitive risks. Until those facts are established, the headline’s description cannot be treated as a verified list of opportunities.
Forager states that its commentary represents internal fund views and is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold a security. Its discussion should be read as attributed opinion, not personalized investment advice. An investor should make decisions based on verified information and their own circumstances.
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