The World Bank projects East Asia and Pacific (EAP) growth of 4.5% in 2026, citing support from economies producing and exporting high-tech goods amid a global surge in AI-related activity. But that regional forecast is not evidence that AI is boosting every country or household: growth projections vary sharply, and adoption across businesses and the wider economy remains limited. The separate warning about AI concentration comes from the Bank’s broader World Development Report 2026, which says dependence on concentrated AI capabilities can leave developing economies with tools that do not meet their needs.
Why did the World Bank raise its East Asia and Pacific growth outlook?
In its October 6, 2026 release, the World Bank projected EAP growth of 4.5% for 2026. The Bank said the region’s integration into global value chains has helped some economies benefit from demand for high-tech goods linked to the global rise in AI-related activity. This is a forecast, not a final measure of growth already recorded.
World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific Carlos Felipe Jaramillo said: “East Asia and Pacific’s deep integration into global value chains and economic dynamism have positioned the region to benefit from the surge in global AI-related activity,” the Bank’s October 6 release reports.
Which economies are projected to grow faster or slower?
The regional headline conceals significant differences. The World Bank revised its 2026 forecasts upward for Viet Nam, Malaysia, and Thailand, while projecting slower growth for China and Pacific Island countries.
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| Economy or group | World Bank 2026 growth projection | Context in the October 6 release |
|---|---|---|
| Viet Nam | 7.4% | Forecast revised upward; the release links regional gains in part to high-tech production and exports. |
| Malaysia | 5.1% | Forecast revised upward; the release links regional gains in part to high-tech production and exports. |
| Thailand | 2.0% | Forecast revised upward, though the projected rate remains below the regional headline. |
| China | 4.4% | Domestic demand is constrained by a soft labor market and property-sector adjustments. |
| Pacific Island countries | 2.2% | High energy prices and limited buffers weigh on growth. |
All figures are World Bank projections for 2026, as reported in its October 6, 2026 release; they are not observed final growth rates. The release’s contrast matters: export-oriented high-tech activity can support some economies, while domestic constraints and exposure to energy costs shape others’ outlooks.
How is AI affecting growth in East Asia and the Pacific?
Manufacturing and exports show the clearest near-term connection
The World Bank’s regional outlook points to high-tech production and exports as one channel through which economies are benefiting from the global AI-related surge. That is a link between regional growth and activity in supply chains; it does not establish that AI adoption is widespread among local businesses or that AI alone caused the projected growth.
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Adoption across firms remains limited
The Bank says AI use in EAP is less prevalent than in advanced economies. Businesses face barriers that include the cost of adoption, a shortage of expertise, and security and privacy concerns. The regional outlook therefore distinguishes visible industrial momentum from broader adoption across firms and public services.
The Bank’s recommendations focus on making adoption workable: improve business conditions, energy and digital infrastructure, financing, and skills; adapt AI to local needs; and use government as both a user and regulator to strengthen public services, digital foundations, rules, and regional cooperation. The World Bank’s EAP outlook page describes the region’s adoption challenges and policy priorities.
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The World Bank says AI has not yet significantly affected jobs that can be automated in EAP, but it is already changing what employers seek. Firms need AI expertise as well as analytical and social skills. The Bank reports that 13% of EAP jobs fall into a category requiring complex thinking and judgment, compared with 39% in advanced economies. Those shares describe the job categories reported by the Bank; they are not estimates of the proportion of jobs that AI will eliminate.
IFC Regional Vice President for Asia and the Pacific Sarvesh Suri said: “The private sector can play a central role in translating AI’s promise into more and better jobs across East Asia and Pacific,” the October release reports. The report’s policy emphasis on skills and locally adapted adoption is relevant to whether firms can turn technology use into productive work.
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What are the risks of AI concentration for developing countries?
The concentration warning is from the World Bank’s broader World Development Report 2026, not a specific statistical finding in the October EAP growth forecast. The Bank’s summary says that concentration of AI can create dependency risks and affect whether available tools meet developing countries’ needs.
For developing economies, the concern is not simply whether AI tools exist. If access and capabilities are concentrated, countries may depend on systems they have limited power to shape, adapt, or govern. That risk is distinct from the immediate EAP evidence: adoption remains uneven, businesses face practical barriers, and the Bank calls for AI to be adapted to local needs. The two reports address connected but different questions—one examines the region’s outlook and adoption conditions, while the other raises the broader development implications of concentrated AI capability.
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