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What is the 2026 farm income forecast?
The latest USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) farm-sector forecast, updated September 3, 2026, projects net farm income of $158.4 billion for calendar year 2026. That is $4.3 billion, or 2.6%, below the updated 2025 estimate in nominal dollars. After adjusting for inflation, the forecast decline is $9.1 billion, or 5.5%. If realized, 2026 net farm income would still be above its inflation-adjusted 2006–25 average. USDA ERS’s farm income and wealth statistics provide the underlying forecast.
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Net cash farm income tells a somewhat different story. ERS forecasts $176.4 billion in 2026, up $0.7 billion, or 0.4%, from 2025 in nominal dollars. In inflation-adjusted terms, it is forecast to fall $4.6 billion, or 2.5%. USDA defines net cash farm income as cash receipts from farming plus cash farm-related income, including federal government payments, minus cash expenses.
| Measure | 2026 forecast | Change from 2025 | What the comparison means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net farm income | $158.4 billion | Down $4.3 billion (2.6%) nominally; down $9.1 billion (5.5%) after inflation | USDA’s broad measure of farm-sector profits |
| Net cash farm income | $176.4 billion | Up $0.7 billion (0.4%) nominally; down $4.6 billion (2.5%) after inflation | Cash receipts and related income minus cash expenses |
All figures in the table are USDA ERS forecasts published in 2026, comparing the 2026 forecast with the updated 2025 estimate. Nominal figures are not adjusted for inflation; inflation-adjusted changes better show the projected change in purchasing power.
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Why the outlook differs by farm sector
USDA projects total inflation-adjusted cash receipts of $540.3 billion in 2026, a decline of $18.0 billion, or 3.2%, from 2025. The aggregate masks a split: animal and animal-product receipts are forecast to fall $25.5 billion, or 8.1%, while crop receipts are forecast to rise $7.5 billion, or 3.1%. These are sector-level projections, not a prediction for every operation.
Crop receipts
In nominal dollars, crop cash receipts are forecast at $253.0 billion, up $14.6 billion, or 6.1%, from 2025. The projected increase is not uniform across crops or driven by the same factor: corn receipts are forecast to rise $6.8 billion, or 11.3%, mainly because of higher quantities sold; soybean receipts are projected to rise $4.3 billion, or 10.0%, mainly because of higher prices. A stronger aggregate crop-receipt forecast therefore does not establish that every crop producer will see higher income.
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Animal and animal-product receipts
The inflation-adjusted forecast for animal and animal-product receipts is lower by $25.5 billion, or 8.1%, from 2025. The cited ERS figures do not establish the same outlook for every livestock or animal-product business, so the sector-wide decline should not be read as an individual farm’s expected result.
Are farm costs and balance sheets improving?
Costs remain a counterweight to receipts in the forecast. USDA expects production expenses to reach $492.8 billion in 2026, an increase of $21.2 billion, or 4.5%, in nominal terms from the 2025 estimate. After inflation, the increase is $7.1 billion, or 1.5%. Fertilizer, lime, and soil-conditioner expenses are projected to rise $5.3 billion, or 15.3%; pesticide expenses are forecast to fall $1.4 billion, or 6.6%. The expense categories do not all move together.
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Balance-sheet indicators are also mixed. Farm-sector debt is forecast to rise $26.4 billion, or 4.6%, to $605.1 billion in 2026. USDA projects the debt-to-asset ratio to increase from 13.34% in 2025 to 13.54% in 2026. Working capital, by contrast, is forecast to rise 3.5% nominally in 2026 after falling 15.0% in 2025. The projected recovery is modest relative to that prior-year decline.
What does the forecast say about farm households?
Sector income and household income are different measures. ERS forecasts median total farm household income of $108,460 in 2026, up 1.2% from 2025 after inflation adjustment. But median farm income earned by farm households was negative $495 in 2025 and is forecast at negative $467 in 2026; median off-farm income is forecast at $93,975 in inflation-adjusted dollars. Many farm households rely substantially on income earned away from the farm, so the household forecast should not be mistaken for a forecast of farm-business profitability.
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Why do USDA’s 2026 forecasts differ?
Forecasts change as USDA updates estimates and assumptions. In February 2026, the USDA Office of the Chief Economist and World Agricultural Outlook Board projected net farm income rising from $179.8 billion in 2025 to $183.3 billion in 2026. The later ERS farm-sector forecast, updated September 3, 2026, instead projected $158.4 billion for 2026 and a decline from its updated 2025 comparison. These are separate forecast vintages, not figures to combine into a single trend. For the current farm-sector outlook, use the September ERS release and identify its date and measure. USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board publishes long-term projections; ERS publishes the farm-sector forecast.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How certain is the 2026 outlook?
It is conditional, not a final accounting of the year. USDA’s baseline projections rely on stated assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, and assume no shocks. New events or updated data can change the outlook. USDA ERS explains its baseline projection assumptions.
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