Possibly—but the ranking is a forecast, not a confirmed result. In 2025, IWSR projected that alcohol-free beer would overtake ale by global volume and become the world’s second-largest beer category after lager. The available figures establish the forecast and the category’s growth through 2024; they do not show whether the crossover actually happened.
What does “second-largest beer category” mean?
The forecast is about global beer volume, not sales value, revenue, or popularity in a particular country. In IWSR figures reported by BeverageDaily on July 15, 2025, lager accounted for 92% of global beer volume in 2024. Ale and alcohol-free beer each represented roughly 2%, with the percentages rounded. IWSR expected alcohol-free beer to pass ale in 2025.
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That is a substantial gap between lager and the other categories, and a much narrower contest for second place. The figures make the projected crossover plausible, but a forecast is not a later measurement. The sources cited here do not establish the current global ranking.
How fast was nonalcoholic beer growing?
IWSR data reported by BeverageDaily put alcohol-free beer’s global volume growth at 9% in 2024. The same report said overall beer volume was declining, making the alcohol-free category’s growth notable against that backdrop.
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IWSR’s 2025 no- and low-alcohol outlook separately forecast an 8% gain for no-alcohol beer from 2024 to 2025. These figures are not contradictory: one describes reported 2024 growth; the other is a forecast for the following period. IWSR also identified the United States and Brazil as expected contributors to incremental value growth. That is a value measure, distinct from the global-volume ranking.
Why might the category be expanding?
Susie Goldspink, IWSR’s Head of No and Low Alcohol, told BeverageDaily that moderation is becoming more mainstream across generations. She also pointed to better product quality, broader availability in major retailers and on-trade venues, and marketing as factors supporting no-alcohol beer. These are the explanations she offered, not proof that any single factor caused the category’s growth.
Goldspink described the market as having more good no-alcohol beer brands and said product quality offered a taste experience equivalent to the alcoholic version. The brands named in the report illustrate two routes into the category:
- Established beer brands with alcohol-free versions: Heineken 0.0, Budweiser 0.0, Corona Cero, Leffe 0.0 and Guinness 0.0.
- Specialist producers: Lucky Saint, Big Drop and Athletic Brewing Company.
HEINEKEN’s 2024 half-year report said Heineken 0.0 grew 14% in the first half of 2024 and described it as the leading nonalcoholic beer brand globally. That is the company’s own claim for its reporting period, not an independently established brand ranking.
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Nonalcoholic beer’s outlook varies by market, and broader no- and low-alcohol figures should not be mistaken for beer-only statistics. IWSR data reported by FoodNavigator in January 2024 found that ten leading no/low markets—the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Spain and South Africa—accounted for around 70% of global no/low volume. Across those markets, no/low consumption grew 5% by volume in 2023, with a forecast compound annual growth rate of 6% from 2023 to 2027. Those figures cover no/low drinks overall; the report said beer and cider together made up 72% of the no-alcohol category.
The consumer mix also suggests that growth does not mean every buyer is abstaining. In IWSR figures reported by FoodNavigator, 43% of no/low consumers in 2023 were “substituters”—people who move between full-strength, low-alcohol and alcohol-free products depending on the occasion—up from 41% in 2022. This describes no/low consumers in the reported markets, not a worldwide beer-only share.
Is nonalcoholic beer already bigger than ale?
The evidence cited here does not confirm that. IWSR’s 2025 projection was that alcohol-free beer would overtake ale during 2025; the underlying comparison placed both at roughly 2% of global beer volume in 2024. To say whether the crossover came to pass, readers would need a newer observed global volume dataset using comparable category definitions.
When evaluating a future ranking or growth claim, check whether it measures volume or value, beer or all no/low drinks, and which period and geography it covers. Also note whether a number is a forecast, an observed market estimate or a company-reported brand figure.
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