No reliable evidence in the cited claim establishes that China is targeting or is on track to sell 60 million electric vehicles annually by 2030. A Gizmochina article published April 29, 2024, attributes that figure to unnamed “industry experts” but does not identify a forecaster or underlying model. It should be treated as an unattributed claim—not an official Chinese target or a settled forecast.
More traceable outlooks still point to China remaining a dominant force in electric vehicles, but they report market shares rather than validating 60 million annual sales. The distinction matters: a share of China’s own vehicle sales is not the same as China’s share of worldwide EV sales, and neither figure alone gives an annual unit total.
Where does the 60-million figure come from?
The figure appears in Gizmochina’s April 29, 2024 article, which says unnamed “industry experts” foresee China reaching a 60% share of the global market by 2030 and describes this as 60 million annual EV sales. The article does not name those experts, explain a forecasting method, or cite an underlying projection.
That leaves two separate claims without a traceable basis in the article: a 60% share of the global market and a 60-million annual sales total. The figure is not presented with enough sourcing to treat it as an official government target or a reliable consensus forecast.
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What do more recent forecasts actually say?
Major outlooks support China’s continued importance, but their figures use different denominators and vehicle definitions. They do not establish a 60-million annual Chinese sales total.
| Source and forecast vintage | Measure | Reported figure |
|---|---|---|
| International Energy Agency, Global EV Outlook 2025, Stated Policies Scenario | Electric cars and vans as a share of China’s total vehicle sales in 2030 | Around 80% |
| International Energy Agency, Global EV Outlook 2025, Stated Policies Scenario | China’s share of global electric car sales through 2030 | More than half |
| BloombergNEF, Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026, published June 16, 2026 | China’s share of global electric car sales in 2025 | 63% |
| BloombergNEF, Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026, published June 16, 2026 | China’s projected share of global EV sales in 2030 | 52% |
| BloombergNEF, Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026, published June 16, 2026 | EVs as a share of China’s domestic car sales | Almost two-thirds (64%) |
These are forecasts and reported market shares, not realized 2030 outcomes. The IEA’s “around 80%” describes electric cars and vans’ share of sales inside China. Its “more than half” describes China’s contribution to sales of electric cars worldwide. BloombergNEF’s 52% is likewise a global-sales share, while its 64% figure is domestic penetration. The percentages answer different questions.
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Why a market share does not prove 60 million annual sales
A percentage needs a defined denominator. To calculate a unit total from a domestic sales share, you would need a forecast for all vehicle sales in China in the same year and for the same vehicle categories. To calculate China’s share of global EV sales as units, you would need a forecast for worldwide EV sales. The cited outlook figures do not provide the matching total-market denominator needed to derive 60 million Chinese sales.
- Domestic penetration: the proportion of vehicle sales in China that are electric.
- Global contribution: the proportion of worldwide electric-vehicle sales that take place in China.
- Annual units: the number of vehicles sold in China during a year.
Those measures cannot be substituted for one another. Nor should “EV” be assumed to mean the same vehicle scope in every forecast: the IEA’s 2025 China penetration figure explicitly covers electric cars and vans, while the Gizmochina article does not explain the scope behind its 60-million claim.
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Why the IEA’s 2024 and 2025 figures are not a simple before-and-after
The IEA’s 2024 outlook put China’s share of global electric light-duty vehicle sales at almost 60% in 2023 and around 40% in 2030 and 2035 under its Stated Policies Scenario. Its 2025 outlook instead says China accounts for more than half of global electric car sales through 2030 under that scenario.
These figures differ in report vintage and stated vehicle scope. Without confirming that the underlying definitions and datasets match, they should not be described as a clean forecast revision or compared as if they were identical measures. For any outlook, check the publication year, scenario, vehicle category, and whether the percentage refers to China’s domestic market or global sales.
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What the forecasts mean for China’s EV position
The IEA’s 2025 outlook projects electric cars and vans at around 80% of China’s total vehicle sales in 2030 under its Stated Policies Scenario. BloombergNEF’s 2026 outlook describes EVs as already accounting for almost two-thirds (64%) of China’s domestic car sales and projects China will represent 52% of global EV sales in 2030. Taken together, these outlooks support a strong position for China in the market; they do not verify the specific 60-million annual-unit headline.
The IEA also writes: “In China, electric cars are already price competitive with conventional cars and so there is little reason to believe that electric car sales would be more affected by an economic slowdown than conventional cars.” That is the agency’s assessment of relative price competitiveness and sales exposure—not a unit-sales forecast.
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How to read the next headline about China’s EV market
- Ask whether the number is a target, a forecast, or an unattributed claim.
- Look for the named forecaster, publication date, scenario, and stated vehicle scope.
- Check whether the percentage is China’s domestic EV penetration or its share of global EV sales.
- Do not turn a sales share into an annual unit estimate without a sourced total-sales forecast using the same year and vehicle definition.
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