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What happened to Brazil–China soybean trade in 2025?
Reuters reported that Brazil shipped 85.4 million metric tons of soybeans to China in calendar year 2025, an 18% increase from 2024, citing Brazilian government data. That is one reported measure of the bilateral trade flow.
A separate S&P Global analysis, citing China Customs import data, put Brazil’s 2025 shipments to China at 82.33 million metric tons. It reported that Brazil supplied 73.6% of China’s 111.82 million metric tons of total soybean imports, up from a 71% share in 2024. These figures come from different source series and should not be combined or treated as reconciled estimates.
The distinction matters: the Reuters figure describes Brazilian shipments as reported from Brazilian government data; the S&P figure describes Chinese imports attributed to Brazil by China Customs. The reports do not explain the gap between them.
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Why does Hedgepoint expect Brazil could gain sales in 2026?
China’s import demand was forecast to increase
In a Reuters report published February 26, 2026, Hedgepoint expected China’s soybean imports to reach 112 million metric tons in 2026, an increase of 4 million metric tons from the prior year. That is a consultancy outlook, not a completed import total.
Argentina’s expected smaller crop could shift supply opportunities
Hedgepoint analyst Luiz Fernando Roque said Argentina was expected to export less because of a smaller crop. He said that could put another 4 or 5 million tons “in the hands of the Americans or Brazil.” This was a potential allocation between two suppliers—not a commitment that all of those tons would be sold by Brazil, or specifically to China.
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Competitiveness and timing also matter
S&P Global’s February analysis identified Brazil’s price competitiveness, exportable surplus and tariff differences as factors that can support its position in China. Those advantages are not fixed: prices, trade terms and the timing of exportable supply can change, while China can buy from multiple origins. China Customs data cited by S&P put Argentina’s 2025 soybean shipments to China at 7.89 million metric tons, up 92.3% year over year.
What later 2026 figures do—and do not—show
By July 2026, S&P Global reported that Brazil’s industry group Abiove had raised its forecast for total Brazilian soybean exports in 2026 to 115.4 million metric tons. The National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC) projected July shipments of 12.49 million metric tons. Both figures concern aggregate Brazilian exports, not realized shipments to China.
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Those later projections are consistent with strong overall export expectations, but they do not establish how much Brazil had shipped to China during 2026 or whether the full-year bilateral forecast was on track. The July report did not provide a cumulative China-bound total.
How to compare the figures without mixing them up
| Figure | What it measures | Status and source |
|---|---|---|
| 85.4 million metric tons | Brazilian soybean shipments to China in calendar 2025; reported as 18% higher than 2024 | Historical figure citing Brazilian government data, reported by Reuters, February 26, 2026 |
| 82.33 million metric tons | Chinese soybean imports from Brazil in 2025; S&P reported a 73.6% share of China’s total imports | Historical China Customs figure reported by S&P Global, February 19, 2026 |
| 112 million metric tons | China’s expected soybean imports in 2026 | Hedgepoint forecast reported by Reuters, February 26, 2026; not a final total |
| 115.4 million metric tons | Brazil’s total soybean exports forecast for 2026 | Abiove forecast reported by S&P Global, July 28, 2026; not China-specific |
| 12.49 million metric tons | Brazilian soybean shipments projected for July 2026 | ANEC projection reported by S&P Global, July 28, 2026; not a realized China-bound total |
Another useful distinction is the reporting period. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecast 112 million metric tons of Brazilian soybean exports for marketing year 2025/26; that marketing-year estimate is not interchangeable with calendar-year totals. The same USDA report reproduced Trade Data Monitor’s figure of 72.5 million metric tons of Brazilian soybean exports to China in 2024. Different calendars and data providers can yield figures that should be labeled rather than casually compared.
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- Productive - Chiba Green Soybean germinates in 10-14 days when soil temps are 65-75°F. Plant 1” deep and space 4-6” apart in an area with full sun. This variety will grow 1-3’ tall with a spread of 12-16”. Beans will mature in 65-75 days, plant in USDA zones 3-10.
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So, will Brazil sell more soybeans to China in 2026?
It may, according to Hedgepoint’s outlook, because China’s imports were expected to grow and a smaller Argentine crop could create an opening for Brazil or the United States. But the available figures do not confirm a 2026 Brazil-to-China total, and Hedgepoint had not issued an exact bilateral shipment forecast. Treat the prospect of higher sales as a conditional market view, not a realized result.
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