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Probably—but not every phone will simply get 13% more expensive. Gartner forecasts a global average smartphone-price increase of about 13% versus 2025 as DRAM and NAND costs surge. In practice, shoppers may encounter higher list prices, less RAM or storage, fewer entry-level models, and weaker trade-in or carrier promotions. Budget and midrange Android phones face the greatest pressure; premium iPhones and Galaxy models have more room to absorb costs but are not immune.
How much could smartphone prices rise?
Gartner estimates combined DRAM and SSD prices could rise 130% by the end of 2026, while its separate semiconductor forecast puts annual DRAM-price growth at 125% and NAND-flash growth at 234%. Those are component forecasts, not handset-price increases. Gartner’s more useful consumer estimate is a 13% average global smartphone-price increase versus 2025: a scenario in which a $400 phone costs about $452, a $700 phone about $791, and a $1,000 phone about $1,130. These calculations illustrate the percentage only; they are not predictions for particular models or U.S. retail prices.
Read the full forecasts at Gartner’s smartphone outlook and Gartner’s semiconductor forecast.
Four prices are involved
- Component cost: What a phone maker pays for memory, processors, displays and other parts.
- Wholesale price: What the manufacturer charges distributors or carriers.
- List price: The advertised device price before incentives.
- Transaction price: What you actually pay after trade-in credits, installment subsidies, taxes and promotions.
A 125% DRAM increase cannot produce a 125% retail increase because memory is only one part of a phone’s bill of materials. Manufacturers can absorb some cost, change specifications, cancel models, renegotiate suppliers or reduce marketing and distribution expenses. Conversely, a phone can become more expensive in real terms while its list price stays unchanged if it includes less hardware or fewer discounts.
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Why AI data centers are raising phone-memory costs
- AI training and inference require enormous data-center systems.
- Those systems use high-bandwidth memory (HBM), server DRAM and enterprise SSDs.
- Memory suppliers have a strong incentive to allocate scarce factory capacity to those higher-margin products.
- Less capacity remains for the conventional DRAM and NAND used in phones.
- Phone manufacturers then face higher contract prices and must pass costs through prices, specifications, product counts or promotions.
A smartphone does not need to contain HBM for this effect to reach it. The competition is for wafer capacity and supplier allocation, not necessarily for the identical finished memory package. S&P Global describes AI-driven HBM demand tightening conventional DRAM supply, while TrendForce reports pressure on mobile DRAM and NAND as AI-server demand expands (S&P Global; TrendForce).
RAM and storage are separate cost problems
DRAM (LPDDR)
LPDDR is temporary working memory for the operating system and apps. More RAM helps with multitasking and on-device AI, but it also increases a phone’s exposure to DRAM pricing. TrendForce projected average smartphone DRAM capacity at approximately 8.5GB in 2026, about 10% higher year over year, even as very low-memory models are phased out (TrendForce’s Q2 2026 report).
NAND flash (UFS storage)
NAND is persistent storage for apps, photos, video, downloads and system files. Manufacturers can keep a starting price intact by offering less storage in the base model, charging more for 512GB or 1TB tiers, or reducing the number of configurations. TrendForce says mobile-memory prices continued rising in the second quarter of 2026 (TrendForce).
Which phones face the most pressure?
| Segment | Likely 2026 response |
|---|---|
| Entry-level | Highest risk of a price increase, less RAM or storage, cancelled models, fewer launch markets and weaker discounts. |
| Midrange | Higher prices, fewer configurations, older processors or cameras, and less aggressive promotions. |
| Premium | Better ability to absorb costs, but possible higher starting prices, pricier storage tiers and reduced launch incentives. |
| Foldables | High exposure because they already use expensive designs and commonly offer large memory configurations. |
| Refurbished and older models | Potentially better value if new entry-level devices become less compelling. |
Budget phones are especially vulnerable because margins are thin, memory is a larger share of manufacturing cost, and buyers are highly price-sensitive. Gartner says entry-level devices will be disproportionately affected; TrendForce and Omdia identify price-sensitive vendors as more exposed than premium brands (Gartner; TrendForce; Omdia).
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The hidden price increase: getting less for the same money
Watch for specification shrinkage as carefully as sticker prices. A manufacturer may respond by offering:
- Less RAM or storage at the same price.
- An older processor or camera system.
- A smaller battery or slower charging.
- Fewer accessories in the box.
- Shorter software-support commitments.
- Lower trade-in values or smaller launch credits.
Omdia forecasts global smartphone shipments will fall about 7% in 2026 amid memory constraints and geopolitical pressures. Weak demand may restrain prices, but it can also make low-end production uneconomic, prompting vendors to reduce output rather than discount aggressively (Omdia).
Why iPhone and Galaxy prices may behave differently
Apple, Samsung and other premium vendors have stronger margins, purchasing power and, in Samsung’s case, substantial vertical integration. That gives them more options than low-cost brands, but not immunity. They can preserve margins by raising prices, charging more for storage, reserving features for higher tiers or reducing promotions.
For a U.S. baseline, Apple currently lists the iPhone 17 from $799 with a carrier-connectivity discount and $829 when connecting later; the iPhone 17 Pro starts at $1,099 (Apple iPhone 17; Apple lineup). Samsung’s March 2026 MSRP sheet lists the unlocked Galaxy S26 512GB at $1,099.99 (Samsung MSRP sheet). These are snapshots, not promises about future launch prices.
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Other possible cost pressures
Processors and modems
Android Central reported that Qualcomm told customers of planned double-digit chipset increases beginning September 1, 2026. No public Qualcomm pricing bulletin was verified, so treat this as secondary reporting rather than a confirmed schedule (Android Central). If accurate, more expensive application processors or modems would compound memory, display, camera, battery and assembly costs.
Tariffs, currency and logistics
Trade restrictions, tariffs, exchange rates and shipping costs can create regional differences, but their effects depend on product origin, classification, exemptions and policy dates. Omdia includes geopolitical pressure in its shipment outlook; there is no single tariff percentage that can responsibly be added to Gartner’s 13% global forecast.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why prices may not jump immediately
Existing inventory may have been bought under earlier contracts. Major brands negotiate supply in advance, and carriers can hide changes behind subsidies or 24- and 36-month bill credits. Companies may also accept lower margins while demand weakens. TrendForce notes that contract timing differs by vendor; Omdia says Apple’s premium mix and supply relationships provide some protection while Samsung benefits from vertical integration (TrendForce; Omdia).
Gartner says meaningful memory-price relief may not arrive until late 2027. New fabrication capacity requires equipment, process qualification, product allocation and inventory rebuilding, so supply cannot normalize instantly (Gartner).
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Should you buy now or wait?
Buy now when
- Your phone is damaged, unreliable or no longer receiving security updates.
- A current model has an unusually strong trade-in or carrier offer.
- You need a specific high-storage configuration.
- A promotion covers most of the purchase cost without requiring an unsuitable plan.
Wait when
- Your current phone remains supported and dependable.
- You can tolerate higher launch prices in exchange for new cameras, battery improvements or longer support.
- You are willing to buy the previous flagship after a new release.
The practical middle ground
- Compare net cost after trade-in, not just list price.
- Compare identical RAM and storage capacities.
- Calculate the full cost of any 24- or 36-month carrier plan, including required service.
- Consider last year’s flagship instead of a new budget model.
- Check certified refurbished inventory with a warranty.
- Keep a supported phone longer if its battery and performance remain adequate.
Ways to reduce the impact
Consider certified refurbished
Apple Certified Refurbished (Apple) and Samsung Certified Re-Newed (Samsung) can lower the upfront price. Check battery condition, warranty, return period, repair history, software-support horizon and exact storage capacity.
Use trade-ins strategically
Compare manufacturer offers at Apple Trade In and Samsung trade-in with reputable resale marketplaces. Account for condition rules, shipping, fees, payment risk and the possibility that a promotional value expires.
Do not mistake monthly payments for a bargain
Carrier credits can require a new line, an upgraded plan, a qualifying trade-in and continued service for the entire credit period. Compare total device payments, plan costs, activation fees and the balance due if you leave early.
What the 2026 warning really means
The defensible conclusion is not that every smartphone will cost exactly 13% more. AI-driven demand is tightening memory supply, and that creates upward pressure on average prices. The most visible effect may be a less favorable deal: more money for the same class of phone, less RAM or storage at the old price, fewer low-cost models, or weaker promotions. Buyers who need a phone soon should compare net prices and specifications now; those with a reliable, supported device can reduce risk by waiting, buying an older flagship or choosing a warranted refurbished model.
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