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How do event contracts work?
The CFTC describes event contracts as financial contracts tied to the outcome of an event. Many use a yes-or-no format, have a fixed payout—usually $1—and expire at a specified time. A contract’s price reflects what traders collectively appear willing to pay for an outcome; it is not an objective probability, guarantee or assurance of profit.
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For example, in the CFTC’s illustration, a “yes” contract costs 70 cents and pays $1 if the event happens. The gross gain would be 30 cents before costs. If the event does not happen, the buyer loses the amount invested. The actual net result can be lower after fees and taxes.
Event contracts can have uses beyond speculation. The CFTC describes hedging real-world risks—for example, a farmer protecting against losses from a freeze—and says aggregated forecasts can sometimes outperform polls or other forecasting methods. Federal Reserve economists Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz and Jonathan H. Wright wrote in a February 2026 discussion paper that Kalshi’s macroeconomic markets could offer researchers and policymakers high-frequency, continuously updated forecasts with information about the distribution of possible outcomes. The paper’s authors said their views did not necessarily represent the Federal Reserve Board’s and that the work could be preliminary. Neither use establishes that an individual trader is likely to profit.
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Why might you avoid trading them?
You can lose your full investment in a position
With a binary contract, being wrong can mean losing the amount you put into that position. A small stake may look manageable, but multiple positions can add up to substantial exposure. Even a correct prediction can produce a poor or negative net result if the price paid, costs and taxes leave too little—or nothing—to gain.
Fees, other costs and taxes reduce net returns
The displayed contract price is not the same as your net return. Before placing a trade, identify any commissions, fees, penalties or other costs, and understand how taxes may apply to your activity. The CFTC advises customers to examine costs and contract obligations; tax treatment depends on circumstances, so do not infer it from the market’s quoted price.
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Contract wording and settlement can be harder than the headline event
A contract may not resolve according to the casual meaning of its event description. Read the exact resolution criteria, what evidence counts, who makes the settlement determination and when the contract expires. The CFTC says customers are entitled to transparent contract terms and settlement information. If you cannot tell what would count as a “yes,” or when the decision will be made, you may not be able to assess the risk well enough to trade.
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Some contracts—particularly more complex ones—may attract fewer participants and have comparatively lower liquidity, according to the CFTC. You might be able to trade out before settlement, but only if a counterparty is available at a price you accept. Do not assume you can close a position quickly or on favorable terms just because the platform displays a current price.
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Other traders may know something you do not
In a CFTC advisory, the agency described a case involving a trader affiliated with a YouTube channel who likely had advance knowledge of video content relevant to a market. Kalshi assessed a $20,397.58 penalty and a two-year suspension; the CFTC said the amount included $5,397.58 in disgorged profits and a $15,000 penalty. The case is a specific example of an information-advantage risk, not proof that all markets are manipulated or all traders have privileged information.
Registration and protections can vary by platform
The CFTC warns that customers dealing with unregistered entities operating outside the United States may have little or no protections. Before considering any platform, verify its registration status and that its app is authentic. Access, available contracts, legal status and protections can also vary by platform and jurisdiction.
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Who regulates prediction markets in the United States?
There is no settled answer that applies to every dispute. The CFTC has maintained that it has exclusive jurisdiction over relevant event-contract markets, while states have argued that yes-or-no contracts can resemble gambling and fall under state authority. The question is contested, so do not treat either side’s position as a final nationwide resolution.
On March 16, 2026, the CFTC published an advance notice seeking comment on how its core principles and regulations apply to prediction markets, which contracts may be contrary to the public interest, and related cost-benefit questions. A request for comment is not itself a final rule or a resolution of the broader jurisdiction dispute.
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On October 8, 2026, the Associated Press reported that the NFL filed a brief supporting New Jersey’s request for Supreme Court review of the federal-state dispute. The report does not establish what the Court will decide. The NFL’s brief said that more than half of prediction-market trading volume on the first Sunday of the 2026 season—$1.8 billion of $3.3 billion—was connected to the NFL; that is the NFL brief’s figure as reported by AP, not an independently audited market-wide measurement. The NFL’s statements about consumer harm and game integrity are advocacy by a party in the dispute, not judicial or regulatory findings.
What to check before deciding
- Could you afford to lose the full amount at risk? Consider your total exposure across positions, not just the stake on one contract.
- Can you explain the contract’s resolution rules? Know what evidence counts, who decides and when settlement occurs.
- What will the trade cost? Check commissions, fees, penalties and other charges, and consider tax consequences.
- Could you exit if your view changes? Look at the market’s liquidity and do not rely on being able to sell at a particular price.
- Have you checked the platform? Verify registration status, the authenticity of its app and what protections apply where you live.
- Does trading fit your goal? If you want to form an expectation rather than take financial exposure, forecasts or polls can provide information without requiring an event-contract position. The available evidence here does not establish a complete comparison of their accuracy or costs.
When avoiding them is a reasonable choice
Avoiding prediction markets is a reasonable choice if you cannot afford to lose the stake, do not understand the contract’s settlement terms, need reliable access to your money, or are uncomfortable with uncertain liquidity, information advantages or changing regulatory arrangements. You do not need to decide that every prediction market is illegitimate to decide that trading one is not right for you.
The reviewed sources do not establish a representative rate of consumer losses, addiction prevalence or average retail-trader outcomes. There is therefore no sound basis here for claiming that every participant loses—or for promising that any particular participant can make money.
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