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U.S. refiners entered an unusually strong margin environment in 2026 as conflict and shipping disruption tightened global supplies of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. refineries ran at an average 95% utilization in the third quarter, while crack spreads for key fuels rose sharply from a year earlier. But “printing money” is shorthand: a wider refining margin is not the same as every refiner earning a windfall, and it does not guarantee the strength will last.
Why disruption can lift U.S. refining margins
Refiners buy crude oil, process it and sell products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Their margin can improve when product prices rise faster than the cost of the crude they can obtain. That can happen when conflict or shipping problems disrupt fuel production and transport, leaving buyers to compete for supplies from other regions.
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That was the pattern described by the EIA for the second quarter of 2026. Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz led international buyers to seek alternative sources, helping raise U.S. refinery margins, production and exports. The EIA said U.S. refiners processed the most crude for a second quarter since 2019, when U.S. refining capacity was 4% higher. EIA’s July 15 review reported that the year-over-year average gasoline crack spread rose 60% in the quarter, while distillate and jet fuel crack spreads more than doubled.
The EIA’s October 5 review found that U.S. refineries averaged 95% utilization in the third quarter, the highest third-quarter crude processing since 2019. Compared with the year-earlier quarter, the average gasoline crack spread more than doubled, while distillate and jet fuel spreads almost tripled. The agency attributed the strength to tight global supply.
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What a crack spread measures—and what it does not
A crack spread is an indicator of the difference between the value of selected refined products and the cost of crude oil. It helps show whether market prices are becoming more favorable to refiners, but it does not account for every cost of running a refinery or represent a company’s audited profit.
For example, the EIA’s New York Harbor product crack spreads compare spot prices for RBOB gasoline, ultra-low sulfur diesel and jet fuel with Dated Brent crude. Its 3-2-1 crack spread estimates the value of two barrels’ worth of gasoline and one barrel’s worth of diesel against the cost of three barrels of crude, then divides the difference by three. Those measures are useful market signals, not a complete calculation of any one company’s results. The EIA explains crack spreads and refining margins here.
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How exports and inventories show the pressure on fuel markets
Higher U.S. exports are one sign that overseas buyers were bidding for available products. In the second quarter of 2026, U.S. distillate exports averaged 1.56 million barrels per day, 30% above the five-year average. Jet fuel exports averaged 356,000 barrels per day, more than twice the five-year average, while U.S. jet fuel production was 24% above its five-year average, according to the EIA.
Exports can support refinery economics, but they also connect U.S. supply to global demand. At the week ending September 25, U.S. distillate stocks were 13% below their five-year average and gasoline stocks were 7% below theirs; jet fuel stocks were 3% above their five-year average. Those inventory figures help explain why tightness in one fuel market may matter even when another product has a more comfortable supply cushion.
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Why a strong market does not mean every refiner earns the same
Company results depend on more than the headline crack spread. A refiner’s crude access and crude quality, product yields, throughput, outages, export mix, operating expenses and compliance costs can all change the outcome. Consolidated earnings may also include businesses beyond refining or accounting items that do not reflect recurring operations.
Chevron illustrates the scale of the change for one company, not the whole industry. The Associated Press reported that its quarterly refinery profit was six times as large in 2026 despite the company processing less crude and selling fewer products, attributing the increase to higher refined-product prices. The AP account is a company example, not a measure of what all U.S. refiners earned.
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PBF Energy’s first-half 2026 filing shows why reported figures need context. The company described improved refining margins from favorable crack spreads and crude differentials, higher throughput and more barrels sold, partly offset by higher Renewable Fuel Standard compliance costs. Its results also included a $313.0 million lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustment and a $356.5 million insurance recovery gain, as well as expenses related to a refinery fire and other matters. Those special items should not be treated as interchangeable with operating margin, net income or cash generation. PBF’s SEC filing provides the company’s reported detail.
Will the high margins last?
There is no guarantee they will. The International Energy Agency’s September 2026 outlook projected global oil supply averaging 100.7 million barrels per day for the year, 5.7 million barrels per day below 2025, and said a full recovery in Middle Eastern producer supply had been deferred until 2027. In its August report, it said Atlantic Basin refining margins reached all-time highs in July as diesel, jet fuel and gasoline cracks surged amid seasonal demand, supply shortfalls and depleted stocks, while global refinery throughput remained well below the prior year.
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The EIA’s August outlook expected tight refined-product markets to support U.S. refiner margins through year-end. It cited lower Russian product exports, resumed conflict around the Strait of Hormuz limiting flows from Saudi and Kuwaiti refineries, and reduced crude runs in China. That was a forecast made at that time, not a guarantee: renewed shipping flows, refinery restarts, export restrictions, changes in demand, inventory rebuilding, crude differentials or rising operating costs could alter the picture quickly.
For an investor assessing a refiner, the useful question is not simply whether the industry has a strong crack spread. Compare the same reporting periods and separate refining-segment results from consolidated earnings; margin per barrel from total throughput; recurring operations from inventory, insurance or outage items; and domestic sales from exports. A favorable market can raise earnings, but it cannot erase company-specific costs or volatility.
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