U.S. trade officials have argued that finding buyers in more countries can open growth opportunities for American agriculture and reduce reliance on a small group of markets. That is a policy rationale, not proof that diversification or a federal promotion program has already increased exports. The figures have also changed since the 2023 report that prompted the claim: USDA says the top five destinations received 56% of U.S. agricultural exports in calendar 2025.
What trade officials meant by diversification
In a report published December 8, 2023, Agriculture.com’s Chuck Abbott described remarks by Doug McKalip, then the U.S. chief agricultural negotiator, and Alexis Taylor, then USDA undersecretary for trade. Speaking at an American Peanut Council conference, officials framed diversification as a way to pursue growth in new markets while reducing exposure to contraction or volatility in established ones.
Taylor said, “Diversification is an important tool for maximizing growth opportunities for your industry as well as a way to hedge risk of market contraction and general volatility in the global marketplace.” She added: “While we remain committed to our established consumer base around the world, we are also setting our sights on those growth opportunities … in places like Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.” These comments state the administration’s rationale; they are not an independent assessment of the strategy’s effects. Agriculture.com’s 2023 report
How concentrated are U.S. farm exports now?
The 2023 report said four major customers—China, Mexico, Canada, and the European Union—would account for nearly $6 of every $10 in U.S. food and agricultural export sales in the fiscal-year outlook it discussed. That is a historical figure for four markets, not a current USDA statistic.
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USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) reports that the United States exported $171 billion in agricultural goods in calendar 2025. The top five markets—Mexico, Canada, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea—received 56% of those exports, down from 62% in calendar 2024. The 2025 five-market figure is not directly comparable with the 2023 report’s four-market figure because the market group and period differ. USDA ERS agricultural trade data
Mexico was the largest U.S. agricultural export market in calendar 2025. China ranked sixth; exports there fell 66% from 2024 to $8.4 billion. ERS associated that decline with reciprocal tariffs and lower U.S. soybean demand. These rankings describe 2025 and should not be read as a permanent order. USDA ERS Countries & Regions
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Why pursue additional markets?
Concentration makes export sales more exposed to changes in a few destinations. If demand contracts or conditions become volatile in a major market, a broader set of customers may offer other outlets. At the same time, reaching additional buyers can create opportunities to sell more agricultural products. These are plausible aims of diversification, not guaranteed outcomes: the available figures do not establish that spreading exports across more markets causes total sales to rise or volatility to fall.
The 2023 report also cited $193.1 billion in U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal 2022 and a USDA forecast, at that time, of a 12% decline in fiscal 2024 exports from the fiscal-2022 record. Those were a historical value and a forecast, not a statement of what ultimately happened in fiscal 2024. Fiscal-year figures should not be mixed with ERS’s calendar-year 2025 totals.
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What is USDA’s Regional Agricultural Promotion Program?
The Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP) is a USDA cost-sharing initiative intended to support efforts to promote U.S. agricultural products in overseas markets. Agriculture.com reported that $300 million was available in its first year. In 2024, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service announced a second round intended to provide another $300 million in grants to 67 partners, subject to legal and administrative requirements. USDA FAS’s second-round announcement
The funding announcements establish the program’s purpose and planned support; they do not demonstrate that RAPP caused a particular increase in exports or made U.S. sales less concentrated. Assessing those effects would require outcome evidence beyond the announcements.
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How exporters should think about choosing markets
The official argument for diversification does not mean every exporter should enter the same destinations. A market that looks promising for one crop or value-added product may be unsuitable for another. The 2023 report mentioned Taiwan, Kenya, and Indo-Pacific Economic Framework talks as examples of market-access activity at that time; those examples do not amount to a current ranking of destinations.
For an exporter evaluating opportunities, the relevant questions include:
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- Demand: Is there a demonstrated need for the specific commodity or product?
- Concentration: Would sales there broaden the customer base, or add further dependence on the same demand drivers?
- Market access: What tariffs, rules, or trade arrangements apply, and what is the current status of negotiations?
- Risk: How might volatility or contraction in that market compare with risks in existing destinations?
- Practical fit: Can the exporter meet the market’s requirements and serve it reliably?
The cited reporting does not supply country-by-country costs, tariffs, logistics, or commodity suitability, so it cannot identify the best destination for an individual business. USDA ERS’s Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States (FATUS) provides fiscal-year trade values, commodity groups, and destination data for further analysis.
What the evidence supports—and what it does not
The data show that U.S. agricultural exports remain concentrated among a small group of destinations, though the leading group’s share was lower in calendar 2025 than in 2024. The policy case for diversification is to seek growth and reduce reliance on established markets. Neither the trade figures nor RAPP’s grant announcements establish that diversification has increased exports, caused the change in concentration, or reduced risk for a particular exporter.
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