The United States supplied 21% of China’s soybean imports in calendar year 2024, while Brazil supplied more than 70%, according to World Bank data cited by the Associated Press. Brazil’s price advantage and expanding supply help explain the shift, but the reported shares should be read as attributed figures: the underlying World Bank series and calculation are not specified in the AP report.
What the 21% figure measures
The 21% figure is the U.S. share of China’s soybean imports in calendar 2024, as AP reported it from World Bank data. AP reported Brazil’s share at more than 70% for the same period. These figures describe China’s import sourcing, not the U.S. share of global soybean trade or the amount of soybeans China bought in a particular marketing year.
The exact World Bank series, denominator definition, and calculation behind the reported percentages are not identified in the available AP account. Treat the figures as reported statistics, not as a newly verified calculation. USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) separately puts the U.S. share of global soybean trade at 26% in 2023/24; that is a different market and period, so it should not be compared directly with the 2024 China share.
Why Brazil gained ground
Price and currency
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Beijing identifies Brazil’s persistent price advantage as a major reason its share of China’s soybean imports has grown. USDA ERS also points to the weak Brazilian real as a factor that can improve the competitiveness of Brazilian exports. Buyers weigh delivered prices, not just the price at origin, so currency movements can affect which supplier offers the better deal.
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Brazil has expanded soybean-growing area and invested in production and marketing-chain infrastructure, according to USDA ERS. Those investments support its ability to supply large export volumes and move them to market. USDA FAS Beijing describes the longer-term shift directly: “In recent years Brazil’s share of the Chinese soybean import market has grown at the expense of the United States.”
Harvest timing and purchasing terms
China’s import choices also reflect seasonal availability, relative prices, credit and delivery terms, local preferences, and quality, USDA ERS says. Harvest timing matters because the supply available from each origin changes over the year. USDA FAS Beijing also highlights seasonal shipping windows when discussing competitiveness. A buyer’s decision is therefore not determined by one headline price or by production totals alone.
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U.S. supply and domestic demand
Rising U.S. domestic soybean use has weighed on exports, USDA ERS notes. When more of the crop is used at home, less may be available for export markets, all else equal. The available figures do not quantify how much this factor contributed specifically to the U.S. share of China’s imports in calendar 2024.
Keep calendar-year shares separate from marketing-year volumes
A later USDA FAS Beijing report gives a different kind of statistic: U.S. soybean arrivals in China totaled 22.9 million metric tons in marketing year 2024/25, down 8% from the previous marketing year. This is a volume for a marketing-year period, not a calendar-year market share. It cannot be used as the denominator for, or a direct confirmation of, AP’s 21% calendar-year figure.
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Trade reports also differ in what they count and when. USDA FAS Beijing says discrepancies between China’s reported arrivals and exporters’ combined departures make import forecasting difficult. For historical country-and-commodity trade data, USDA ERS directs users to FAS’s Global Agricultural Trade System.
What later tariffs do—and do not—explain
USDA FAS Beijing’s 2025 analysis discusses additional Chinese tariffs announced in March 2025 and their expected effects on later U.S. competitiveness and shipping windows. Because those measures came after calendar 2024, they are later context, not an explanation for the 21% share reported for 2024. More generally, trade-policy costs can influence supplier comparisons, but the period must match the claim.
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- Productive - Chiba Green Soybean germinates in 10-14 days when soil temps are 65-75°F. Plant 1” deep and space 4-6” apart in an area with full sun. This variety will grow 1-3’ tall with a spread of 12-16”. Beans will mature in 65-75 days, plant in USDA zones 3-10.
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How to compare soybean suppliers fairly
A meaningful supplier comparison needs more than a single market-share percentage. The factors identified by USDA ERS and USDA FAS Beijing include:
- Delivered price and currency: Compare costs at destination and account for exchange-rate effects.
- Seasonal availability: Consider when each origin’s crop and export shipments are available.
- Production and logistics capacity: Look at the ability to produce, transport, and export the required volume.
- Commercial terms and product needs: Include credit, delivery terms, local preferences, and quality.
- Trade-policy costs: Apply tariffs and other relevant policy costs to the correct period.
These factors explain why market share can shift without any one cause accounting for the whole change. The cited reporting establishes Brazil’s price advantage and longer-term expansion as important context, but it does not assign a precise portion of the 2024 shift to each factor.
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