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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates at its next scheduled decision because it just raised them and still says inflation is elevated. But there is no Fed rate decision today, October 4, 2026: the next two-day FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27–28. The latest decision, on September 16, raised the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%.
There is no Fed rate decision today
October 4 is not an FOMC decision day. The Fed’s calendar lists the next meeting for October 27–28. The latest posted decision came on September 16. The Fed’s monetary policy page and calendar were last updated October 1, 2026.
Why a near-term cut is not the obvious next move
The Fed just raised rates
On September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12–0 to raise its target range by a quarter percentage point, to 3.75%–4.00%. The Committee said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, domestic spending was resilient, productivity growth was strong, capital investment was robust, job gains had kept pace with the workforce, and unemployment had changed little. At the same time, it said, “Inflation remains elevated,” and described the increase as supporting a timelier return to its 2% inflation goal. The September 16 FOMC statement does not promise another increase or rule out a later cut; it explains the decision officials made at that meeting.
September projections put inflation above the goal
The September Summary of Economic Projections put the median participant projection for 2026 PCE inflation at 3.7%, compared with the Fed’s longer-run 2% goal. The median projected federal funds rate at the end of 2026 was 4.1%, above the 3.875% midpoint of the new target range. Those figures are individual participants’ projections of appropriate policy based on information available at the meeting—not a collective promise, a vote, or a guarantee that rates will finish the year at that level. See the September 2026 projections.
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Williams says officials need more information
New York Fed President John C. Williams said on September 29 that inflation was 3.7% and that the balance of risks had shifted: the economy appeared resilient, while the risk to price stability had increased. He cited energy costs and rising demand for some AI-related goods as inflation risks, but said he had not seen evidence that those price increases were spreading into broader, persistent inflation. Williams said the September move gave officials time to gather more information. He also said another increase late in the year could be appropriate if the economy followed his forecast, while emphasizing that the forecast was his and that incoming data would matter. His view is not an FOMC decision. His remarks are available from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
What Trump’s attacks do—and do not—tell us
The political dispute is real, but it is not evidence of how the next vote will go. The Associated Press reported that Trump criticized the September increase and accused Fed policymakers of acting politically. AP also quoted Chair Kevin Warsh defending the action on inflation grounds: “The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long.” Warsh said the Committee judged that it had not met the standard for confidence that inflation would return to its objective. Those reported remarks document disagreement; they do not establish that presidential criticism changes the Committee’s economic assessment or determines a future vote. See the Associated Press report.
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What could change the outlook before the October meeting
The September decision and projections make a cut an uncertain, rather than obvious, next step. Before the October 27–28 meeting, relevant considerations include whether inflation is moving toward the 2% goal, how labor-market conditions evolve, and what incoming economic data show. Actual Committee decisions can differ from the individual projections published in September. Neither Williams’s speech nor the September projections settle the October outcome.
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