The 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) could exceed the 2.8% increase beneficiaries received in 2026. Forecasts reported in 2026 put the next adjustment at 3.5% to 3.6%, but those figures are estimates—not an official Social Security Administration (SSA) decision. The calculation depends on third-quarter CPI-W data, and SSA had not announced the 2027 COLA as of October 4, 2026.
Why could the 2027 COLA be higher?
The 2027 estimates reported by Kiplinger were above the 2.8% adjustment SSA set for 2026. The comparison is a forecast against an official past adjustment, not a guarantee that benefits will rise by 3.5% or 3.6% next year.
The COLA formula uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). It does not simply adopt the inflation rate most often mentioned in general news coverage. SSA compares the CPI-W average for July, August and September of the year being calculated with the average for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA took effect. SSA explains the formula and announcement timing.
What are the 2027 COLA estimates?
| Figure | Source and basis | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5% | The Senior Citizens League estimate, reported by Kiplinger in 2026, based on August data. | Forecast, not an SSA determination. |
| 3.6% | Projection by David Payne, Kiplinger staff economist, reported by Kiplinger in 2026. | Forecast, not an SSA determination. |
| 2.8% | SSA’s official 2026 COLA, based on the CPI-W increase from the third quarter of 2024 through the third quarter of 2025. | Official adjustment for 2026. |
Kiplinger’s report on the 2027 estimates distinguishes the two projections and their inputs. Neither is the figure SSA sets under its formula.
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Why can the estimate change?
The formula depends on the entire July–September CPI-W quarter. A forecast made before all three months’ figures are available relies on an incomplete quarter and can move when the remaining data arrive. As Shannon Benton, executive director of The Senior Citizens League, put it in Kiplinger’s report: “Of the three CPI-W figures used to calculate the COLA, two are already in.”
That is why high prices or a headline inflation measure alone cannot establish the final COLA. The relevant result is the CPI-W comparison specified by SSA, not a direct translation of another inflation index into a benefit increase.
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When will SSA announce the 2027 COLA?
SSA says it will announce the next COLA in October 2026. As of October 4, 2026, it had not announced the 2027 adjustment. The estimate remains provisional until the agency releases its determination. See the SSA COLA overview for its announcement window.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What does a 3.5% or 3.6% estimate mean for an individual benefit?
It does not translate into one universal dollar amount. The dollar effect depends on the beneficiary’s current benefit, and the figures above are not final. These estimates alone therefore do not establish how much any particular person’s monthly payment would change.
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For context, SSA’s official 2026 COLA fact sheet states that the 2.8% adjustment reflects the CPI-W increase from the third quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2025.
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