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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsThe 4% rule and age-based retirement savings benchmarks answer different questions. Fidelity’s age-based factors are planning guideposts for how much to accumulate while working; the 4% rule is a withdrawal heuristic for estimating how much to take from an invested portfolio after retirement. Reaching a salary multiple does not automatically make a 4% withdrawal sustainable, and a withdrawal rate is not a savings target.
The figures below are U.S.-focused guidance and modeled estimates, not universal standards or guarantees. They can help you assess whether you are on track and identify which assumptions need to fit your own retirement plan.
What each benchmark measures
| Question | Age-based savings factors | 4% rule |
|---|---|---|
| When it applies | During the accumulation years, before retirement. | After retirement, when drawing from an invested portfolio. |
| What it measures | Savings as a multiple of current income at selected ages. | An initial withdrawal as a share of the portfolio at retirement, with later inflation adjustments. |
| What it is for | A goalpost for assessing progress toward a retirement savings target. | A way to examine whether a withdrawal plan might last for a specified retirement horizon under particular assumptions. |
Neither measure determines the other. A salary multiple does not specify how much to withdraw, while a withdrawal percentage does not tell you how much to save at a given age.
Fidelity’s age-based retirement savings factors
Fidelity’s current U.S. guide, displayed September 25, 2026, suggests aiming for the following savings relative to current income:
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| Age | Fidelity savings factor |
|---|---|
| 30 | 1× current income |
| 40 | 3× current income |
| 50 | 6× current income |
| 60 | 8× current income |
| 67 | 10× current income |
These are Fidelity’s aspirational goalposts, not observed average balances or required thresholds. The company says the factors are based on a particular planning path: saving 15% of income each year from age 25, including any employer match; investing more than half of savings in stocks on average over a lifetime; retiring at 67; and seeking to maintain a pre-retirement lifestyle. Fidelity also recommends saving at least 15% annually, including employer match, as a general guideline. These are provider assumptions and guidance, not a regulator’s prescribed standard. Fidelity’s savings-factor explanation describes the model and its assumptions.
Why your target may differ
- Starting age and contribution rate: Starting later or saving at a different rate changes the accumulation path.
- Retirement date: Retiring earlier can mean fewer saving years and a longer period to fund.
- Spending goal: The 10× factor at 67 assumes maintaining a pre-retirement lifestyle. Fidelity gives 12× at 67 as an example for an above-average spending target and 8× for a below-average one.
The factors are not a pass-or-fail test. Fidelity notes that they are aspirational and intended as goalposts. The cited sources do not establish what share of people meet them, so they should not be read as typical real-world balances.
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How the classic 4% rule works
The classic rule begins with a withdrawal equal to 4% of the portfolio’s value at retirement. In later years, the dollar amount is adjusted for inflation; it is not recalculated as 4% of the portfolio’s changing balance each year. The approach is associated with William Bengen’s 1994 historical analysis and tests whether a starting withdrawal could last through a defined retirement period under the historical returns and portfolio assumptions examined.
That distinction matters. Withdrawing 4% of the current balance each year is a different strategy: the dollar amount can fall after a market decline, whereas the classic rule aims to maintain inflation-adjusted spending. The classic formulation is a heuristic based on historical testing, not a fixed investment return or a promise that every future portfolio will last. Fidelity’s withdrawal-rate overview explains the inflation-adjusted approach and the role of assumptions.
Why a 4% withdrawal is not guaranteed
Results depend partly on the sequence of returns: poor market performance early in retirement can do more damage when withdrawals continue, because money is being removed from a portfolio while it is down. Retirement duration, investment mix, inflation, and the ability to change spending also matter. Historical simulations show what would have happened under past periods and stated assumptions; they cannot ensure the same result in future markets.
How current withdrawal estimates compare
Different withdrawal estimates are not directly interchangeable. Their horizons, portfolio mixes, success targets, and return assumptions need to travel with the percentage.
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| Source and estimate | Conditions attached to the figure | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| Fidelity: 4%–5% first-year estimate | General guideline; first-year withdrawal followed by annual inflation adjustments. Fidelity says the result varies with longevity, inflation, market returns, retirement age, and investment mix. | A broad planning range, not a personalized recommendation. |
| Fidelity: 4.6% for 30 years; 5.0% for 25 years; 4.4% for 35 years | Historical examples at a 90% success rate, using a balanced portfolio of 50% stocks, 40% bonds, and 10% cash. | Longer horizons have lower figures in these examples; the values reflect Fidelity’s specified historical analysis. |
| Morningstar: 3.9% starting rate | 2025 report base case: 30-year horizon, 90% success target, and 30%–50% equities. Model data as of September 30, 2025; uses forward-looking capital-market return and inflation assumptions. | A modeled starting rate under Morningstar’s stated conditions, not certainty of success. |
| Morningstar: 4.4% using historical return assumptions | 2025 report sensitivity for a 50% stock / 50% bond portfolio, using historical rather than forward-looking return assumptions. | The different result illustrates how the method and assumptions can change the estimate. |
Morningstar’s 3.9% base case does not directly disprove the historical 4% rule: the two figures come from different analytical approaches and assumptions. Fidelity’s historical figures likewise belong to their stated portfolio and horizon. Morningstar’s 2025 retirement-income report describes its model and success target.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to use the benchmarks together
- Use the savings factors to check accumulation progress. Compare your savings with the factor for your age as a rough planning reference, while accounting for how your actual saving history, retirement date, and lifestyle target differ from Fidelity’s modeled path.
- Estimate retirement spending separately. Work out the annual spending your portfolio may need to cover, then account for other income such as Social Security or a pension. The salary multiple alone does not give you a withdrawal amount.
- Choose an appropriate withdrawal comparison. Match the estimate to a plausible retirement duration and portfolio allocation, and distinguish historical back-testing from forward-looking modeling.
- Consider flexibility and risk. A plan that can reduce withdrawals after weak returns has a different risk profile from one that requires inflation-adjusted spending regardless of market conditions.
- Revisit the assumptions as circumstances change. Retirement timing, expected spending, inflation, investment mix, and other income can all alter the plan.
The useful comparison is not “Which rule is right?” but “What phase of planning am I in, and do the assumptions fit my household?” An accumulation factor can flag a savings gap; a withdrawal estimate can frame retirement-income risk. Neither should be treated as a complete plan on its own.
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