On October 8, 2026, The Block reported that TD Cowen raised its bitcoin price forecasts but kept its Strategy (MSTR) target at $260 with a Buy rating. The analysts’ explanation is that a higher bitcoin price can lift Strategy’s earnings potential, while capital-structure expansion, share issuance, preferred-stock activity, and cash-reserve building can dilute how much of that gain reaches each common shareholder. The forecast and rating are TD Cowen’s opinions as reported by The Block. They are not guidance from Strategy and not a guaranteed outcome.
What TD Cowen reportedly said
The Block attributes the update to analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete. Their revised model reportedly places bitcoin near $109,000 at the end of 2026 and $280,000 by 2029. The same article contrasts those figures with a $80,000–$90,000 fourth-quarter base case from QCP Capital. None of these is an observed price or a confirmed future level.
| Bitcoin price view | Who it comes from | Horizon | Level | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Updated TD Cowen model | TD Cowen, as reported by The Block | End of 2026 | About $109,000 | Analyst forecast |
| Updated TD Cowen model | TD Cowen, as reported by The Block | 2029 | $280,000 | Analyst forecast |
| Base case | QCP Capital, as reported by The Block | Fourth quarter 2026 | $80,000–$90,000 | Scenario, not a market observation |
The MSTR target needs more care, because two TD Cowen figures now appear in Strategy-related material. Strategy’s Q1 2026 results presentation includes an April 20, 2026 TD Cowen row with a $385 target, a Buy rating, and a $125,000 bitcoin forecast. The horizon for that $125,000 figure is not stated, so it cannot be compared directly with the end-2026 figure above. The Block describes the $260 target as unchanged, but it does not explain how the target moved from $385 to $260 if it did, so “unchanged” should be read as The Block’s characterization.
| Date | Firm | Rating | MSTR target | Bitcoin view cited | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 20, 2026 | TD Cowen | Buy | $385 | $125,000 (horizon not stated) | Strategy Q1 2026 results presentation, analyst table |
| October 8, 2026 | TD Cowen | Buy | $260 | About $109,000 at end-2026; $280,000 by 2029 | The Block |
Why a higher bitcoin price does not flow one-for-one to MSTR holders
Strategy’s common shares are a claim on the company, not a claim on a fixed amount of bitcoin. The company can grow its bitcoin holdings while the bitcoin attached to each share barely changes, or even falls. Strategy’s investor briefing filed with the SEC states that MSTR holders have no direct claim on specific bitcoin, and that MSTR is a corporate equity rather than a spot bitcoin ETF. The mechanisms below explain how the gap opens.
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Aggregate holdings versus holdings per share
The useful question is how much bitcoin sits behind each share, not how much bitcoin the company owns. A simplified hypothetical, not Strategy’s figures, shows the effect. Suppose a company holds 1,000 BTC and has 100 million shares, so each share is backed by 0.00001 BTC. It then issues 30 million new shares and spends the proceeds on 100 BTC. Total holdings rise 10%, to 1,100 BTC, but the shares number 130 million. Bitcoin per share falls to about 0.00000846, a drop of roughly 15%.
The outcome depends on the price at which new shares are sold. If the company issues shares for more bitcoin-backed value than each existing share already represents, bitcoin per share can rise. If it issues them for less, the same arithmetic runs in reverse.
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Debt and preferred stock rank ahead of common equity
Strategy’s investor briefing describes MSTR as common equity that is junior to debt and preferred stock. Any value that a rising bitcoin price creates first has to cover those senior claims before reaching common shareholders. The Block’s account of TD Cowen’s view ties the dilution argument to this structure: capital raised through preferred securities and debt sits ahead of common holders in the claim order.
Preferred-stock repurchases and new issuance
The analysts said preferred-stock repurchases could consume part of the benefit for MSTR holders. Repurchasing preferred stock reduces a senior claim, which can be useful, but the cash used is cash not spent on bitcoin. Issuing new common shares changes the per-share math directly, as the example above shows.
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Cash reserves versus immediate bitcoin purchases
Strategy’s August 10, 2026 investor briefing reported a $4.65 billion USD reserve, which the company described as a $36.68 billion net reserve after debt and preferred stock. Reserves can cover obligations and give the company room to maneuver, but money held in reserve is not buying bitcoin. The analysts’ point is that reserve building can dilute the benefit of bitcoin appreciation even when it has strategic value.
Market value relative to net asset value
Strategy’s mNAV compares its market value with the net value of its bitcoin holdings after debt and preferred stock. When mNAV is above 1, new shares can be sold for more than the bitcoin backing each share. When mNAV is below 1, selling shares means issuing equity below the net value behind it, which is generally dilutive to bitcoin per share. The August 10 investor briefing showed mNAV of 1.06x. The October 8 report put Strategy at roughly 1x, after a June low of 0.63. Both figures come from different sources and are dated, so they show a range rather than a trend.
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The October 8 figures, side by side
The October report and the August investor briefing use different sources, so the table below is not a continuous data series. It shows the figures available for each date.
| Metric | August 10, 2026 (Strategy investor briefing) | October 8, 2026 (The Block) |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin holdings | 840,447 BTC | 848,000 BTC (Strategy figures as reported) |
| USD reserve | $4.65 billion | Not stated |
| Net reserve after debt and preferred stock | $36.68 billion | Not stated |
| mNAV | 1.06x | Roughly 1x (Saylor Tracker, after a June low of 0.63) |
| Unrealized profit on holdings | Not stated | Approximately $4.5 billion (Strategy figures as reported) |
| MSTR share price | Not stated | Around $150 |
The holdings figures differ by about 7,550 BTC between the two dates, but the sources are different, so treat that change as indicative. The implied upside to the $260 target at the October 8 price of about $150 was roughly 73%. That figure is a single-day snapshot. It has no bearing on where the stock trades after publication.
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How to read a sell-side target
- A price target is an analyst’s estimate, not a company commitment. Strategy’s Q1 2026 presentation says third-party analyst views are not endorsed by the company, can change, and are not investment advice.
- Read the target together with its date, its rating, and the bitcoin assumption behind it. A $260 target and a $385 target from the same firm months apart reflect different inputs and dates.
- A target that rises or falls does not, by itself, show whether the per-share outlook improved. The useful question is what happened to the share count, senior claims, and reserves that the analysts were modeling.
What the analysts wrote
According to The Block, TD Cowen’s analysts wrote in their Thursday report: “Capital structure expansion and associated dilution temper the per-share benefit.” This is a sentence reproduced by a secondary source. The full TD Cowen report is not reproduced in The Block’s article, and the figures available do not show enough model inputs to rebuild the $260 valuation or to estimate a precise dilution effect.
Quick Recap
What to watch in Strategy’s filings
- New common share and preferred issuance, and the prices at which shares are sold relative to the bitcoin backing each share.
- Preferred-stock repurchases and whether the cash spent reduces senior claims or displaces bitcoin purchases.
- Reported reserve levels, both the USD reserve and the net reserve after debt and preferred stock.
- Bitcoin holdings per share, which is the figure that shows whether dilution is outrunning accumulation.
- mNAV, and whether the market keeps valuing the company near or below its bitcoin net asset value.
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