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SpaceX shares jumped in early October 2026 after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas argued that the stock looked inexpensive relative to its expected growth, reiterated an Overweight rating and set a $300 price target. That is an analyst’s valuation case—not a SpaceX forecast, a guarantee of future returns or proof that the shares are undervalued.
What happened to SpaceX stock?
Benzinga reported on October 5, citing Benzinga Pro, that SpaceX shares gained 7.35% on Friday, October 2, to close at $158.96. The same report said the shares were up 3.6% to $164.63 on Monday morning. Those are dated market snapshots, not current quotes.
The report linked the move to a Sunday note from Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, titled “Cheap and Getting Cheaper,” in which he reiterated an Overweight rating and a $300 price target. Benzinga disclosed that Morgan Stanley had co-managed a SpaceX offering in the prior year and received investment-banking fees from the company. That relationship is relevant context when weighing the bank’s analysis; it does not by itself establish whether the analysis is right or wrong.
What does “cheap and getting cheaper” mean?
The headline multiple is not low
Jonas’s reported argument was about valuation relative to forecast growth, not about SpaceX having a low headline valuation. At a cited share price of $159, Morgan Stanley estimated SpaceX at about 30 times forecast 2028 EV/EBIT, compared with about 16 times for a group of mega-cap AI companies. EV/EBIT compares enterprise value—the value of a company’s operations attributable to both debt and equity holders—with earnings before interest and taxes. On that measure alone, SpaceX was more highly valued than the peer group.
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The growth adjustment changes the comparison
Morgan Stanley’s reported growth-adjusted comparison put SpaceX at 0.3 times EV/EBIT-to-growth, versus a 0.5-times median for the peer group. Benzinga said the same metric at Jonas’s target would be about 0.6 times for SpaceX, compared with 0.5 for Amazon, 0.7 for Alphabet and 0.8 for Meta. These are analyst estimates, not objective measures of intrinsic value. The result depends on forecasts for earnings and growth, and on the companies selected as peers.
In other words, the thesis is that SpaceX’s projected growth could make its higher headline multiple look more reasonable. If that growth is delayed, smaller than expected or less profitable than assumed, the adjustment can look much less persuasive. The comparison does not establish that SpaceX is cheaper under every valuation method.
How does Morgan Stanley’s SpaceX valuation work?
Benzinga described Jonas’s analysis as a sum-of-the-parts model: it estimates the value of separate businesses and adds them together. The components below are Morgan Stanley estimates as relayed by Benzinga on October 5, not segment values disclosed by SpaceX.
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| Business or comparison | Reported estimate | What it represents |
| Space and connectivity | $127 per share | Value Jonas attributed to SpaceX’s existing space and connectivity operations. |
| AI at a cited $159 share price | $32 per share implied by the market | The remainder after subtracting the model’s space-and-connectivity value from the cited share price. |
| Enterprise AI | $165 per share, after a 50% execution-risk discount | Model value assigned to the prospective enterprise AI business. |
| Connectivity | $118 per share | Connectivity component in the reported sum-of-the-parts model. |
| External launch | $8 per share | Launch services sold outside the company. |
| X/Grok | $8 per share | Value assigned to X and Grok in the model. |
The contrast is central to the bullish case: the market-implied AI value in the report’s cited-price calculation is far below the model’s AI estimate. But those figures answer different questions. One is a residual implied by the analyst’s estimate of existing operations and a particular share price; the other is a model value for a prospective business after a risk discount. Neither is a valuation disclosed by SpaceX, and the comparison depends on the assumptions behind both calculations.
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Why do compute capacity and pricing matter so much?
Jonas’s reported AI thesis is sensitive to how much computing capacity SpaceX can deploy and what customers will pay for it. Benzinga said Visible Alpha consensus assumed $17.60 per watt across 4.1 gigawatts. Against that benchmark, Jonas estimated that each additional $10 per watt could add more than $40 billion to consensus revenue—more than one-third of fiscal 2027 revenue—without changing deployed capacity. He also estimated that recent short-term neocloud contracts were priced at $30–$50 per watt.
Those are unusually consequential assumptions, not settled contract terms or company guidance. The reported calculation shows why a change in price per unit of capacity could materially alter the revenue outlook; it does not prove that SpaceX can deploy the assumed capacity on schedule, secure customers at the estimated rates or turn that revenue into profit. Jonas reportedly said compute deployment and pricing “can swing even next year’s revenue by potentially a multiple.” Benzinga is the source for that quotation; the original Morgan Stanley note was not available.
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What catalysts and risks did the October report identify?
Potential catalysts cited at the time
Benzinga’s October 5 report said a Starship Flight 15 was then expected in late October or early November. Jonas reportedly described a successful ship catch as a development that “could be the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO.” This was his forward-looking opinion, not a confirmed outcome or a guarantee of a stock reaction.
The report also said third-quarter earnings were expected in late October and could offer an early look at the economics of Cursor and Grok Bot. Both the launch timing and earnings expectations were forward-looking statements in the October 5 coverage; they may have changed since then.
Downside scenario and broader uncertainties
Benzinga reported that Jonas believed a test of $100 within the following 12 months would require a clear slowdown in AI progress, a severe Starship testing setback or material dilution. That is one analyst’s description of a downside scenario, not a price forecast or a complete list of risks. The thesis also depends on executing ambitious technology and infrastructure plans, winning customers, achieving expected pricing and producing earnings growth sufficient to support the valuation.
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Share supply can affect trading independently of those operating assumptions. The Associated Press reported that, on August 6, SpaceX shares rose 6.1% to close at $114.92 after more than 900 million shares became newly available following a lockup expiration. That earlier event is historical context, not an explanation for the October move.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What do SpaceX’s disclosures establish?
In a June 4, 2026 announcement, SpaceX said it had launched a roadshow for 555,555,555 Class A shares at an expected offering price of $135, with SPCX proposed as its Nasdaq ticker. The announcement named Morgan Stanley among the book-running managers and directed investors to the prospectus and other SEC filings for full information and risk factors. These are issuer-provided offering details; they do not validate Morgan Stanley’s later valuation estimates.
For operating context, the Associated Press reported that SpaceX recorded a $541 million loss on $7.8 billion in revenue for the three months through June, alongside sharply higher research-and-development and infrastructure spending. Those are historical quarterly figures reported in August, not a forecast for future results. They illustrate why revenue growth and valuation should not be treated as interchangeable with profitability.
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How should investors read the stock move?
The October rally and Jonas’s valuation argument are related news, but they are not the same kind of evidence. The reported price change describes trading over specific periods. The $300 target, peer multiples, sum-of-the-parts values and compute-pricing sensitivity are Morgan Stanley’s estimates as reported by Benzinga. SpaceX’s offering announcement and reported quarterly results are company-related disclosures. Keeping those categories separate makes the thesis easier to assess without mistaking an analyst model for a company commitment or a market quote for a measure of fair value.
This is market reporting, not a personalized investment recommendation. The original Morgan Stanley note and primary October 5 exchange data were not available for independent review, so the detailed analyst figures and quotations here are attributed to Benzinga’s report.
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