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Why SanDisk Revenue Fell 38% in FY2023—and What to Watch on October 29

SanDisk’s 38% revenue decline was a fiscal 2023 comparison driven chiefly by lower prices per gigabyte. Its October 29, 2026 report is the next test of pricing, volume, mix, and customer commitments.
From TheFinanceBase Team4 min to read
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The 38% figure refers to SanDisk’s net revenue in fiscal 2023 compared with fiscal 2022—not a 38% drop in units sold. SanDisk’s filing says substantially all of the decline came from a 39% fall in average selling price (ASP) per gigabyte. The next test is its scheduled fiscal first-quarter 2027 report on October 29, 2026; as of October 12, the results were not yet public.

What the 38% decline measures

In its 2025 S-1/A, SanDisk reported that net revenue fell 38% in fiscal 2023 compared with fiscal 2022. Those fiscal years ended June 30, 2023, and July 1, 2022, respectively. The filing says substantially all of the decrease was driven by a 39% drop in ASP per gigabyte. SanDisk’s 2025 S-1/A presents these earlier flash-business results on a carve-out basis: SanDisk was not yet an independent public company in fiscal 2023.

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Revenue reflects both how much a company ships and the price and mix of what it sells. The filing’s explanation points chiefly to lower prices per gigabyte, amid a supply-demand imbalance, macroeconomic pressure, and product mix. It does not describe the 38% decline as a 38% reduction in shipments.

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Different end markets moved differently

The filing’s end-market figures show why the company-wide result should not be mistaken for one uniform change in customer demand:

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  • Cloud: Revenue fell 60%, alongside 28% fewer exabyte shipments and a 45% lower ASP per gigabyte.
  • Client: Revenue fell 40%, reflecting a 42% lower ASP per gigabyte.
  • Consumer: Revenue fell 21%; an approximately 30% lower ASP per gigabyte was partly offset by 14% more exabytes sold.

These are segment-specific figures, not interchangeable explanations for the full-company decline. In particular, the consumer figures show higher volume alongside lower revenue, while the cloud market experienced declines in both shipments and ASP.

How the downturn compares with SanDisk’s latest results

The most recent reported results before the October 29 event show a sharp reversal in revenue direction. SanDisk reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $20.25 billion, up 175% year over year. In its August 5, 2026 results release, the company reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $8.965 billion, up 51% sequentially. SanDisk attributed roughly one-third of that sequential increase to higher volume and two-thirds to higher pricing. See the fiscal 2026 results release.

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That is a useful contrast with fiscal 2023’s price-led revenue decline, not proof that another downturn cannot occur. The two periods reflect different pricing and demand conditions. SanDisk’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 end-market results also showed differing trends: datacenter revenue was $1.467 billion, up 233% sequentially; edge revenue was $3.663 billion, up 118%; and consumer revenue was $820 million, down 10%. The fiscal third-quarter release offers an earlier snapshot; the fourth-quarter and full-year figures are more recent.

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When SanDisk reports on October 29

SanDisk scheduled its fiscal first-quarter 2027 earnings call for October 29, 2026, at 1:30 p.m. Pacific (4:30 p.m. Eastern). The event is the next scheduled report, not a result already available as of October 12. SanDisk’s announcement gives the report and call details.

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For a useful read-through, separate what the company reports from what investors may infer. SanDisk’s releases provide ways to track revenue, pricing, shipment volumes, and end-market contributions. The October report’s actual results and any analyst-expectation comparison cannot be stated in advance.

What to compare in the release

  • Pricing and volume: Look for management’s breakdown of ASP or pricing trends relative to bit shipments. A revenue increase driven mainly by pricing differs from one driven mainly by volume.
  • End-market mix: Compare datacenter, edge, and consumer revenue and growth where the company reports them. Different end markets can move in different directions.
  • Growth rates: Keep sequential comparisons distinct from year-over-year comparisons; they answer different questions and can give different impressions of momentum.
  • Outlook: Compare any new guidance with the company’s latest reported guidance, if supplied in the release. Do not treat a company forecast as a realized result.
  • Customer commitments: Check whether SanDisk updates the scale and bit coverage of its New Business Model agreements relative to the figures it gave at Investor Day.
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Can customer agreements reduce NAND-cycle swings?

At its August 13, 2026 Investor Day, SanDisk said it had signed New Business Model agreements with eight customers. The company said those agreements represented approximately 50% of FY2027 bits and approximately two-thirds of FY2028 bits. Management described the contracts as using committed volumes, minimum financial guarantees, and structured pricing mechanisms, with the aim of making planning and revenue visibility more predictable and reducing exposure to traditional industry volatility. Those are management’s descriptions and intended effects.

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They do not establish that NAND has stopped being cyclical. The October report can show whether the agreements’ reported coverage changes and how pricing, volume, and end-market mix are evolving, but the existence of commitments alone does not prove that future revenue will be insulated from market swings.

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Separate targets from results

At the same Investor Day, SanDisk set FY2028–FY2030 targets that include mid-to-high-teen revenue growth and approximately 80% non-GAAP gross margins. These are forward-looking company targets, not achieved results or independent forecasts. SanDisk also cited a potential enterprise datacenter flash total available market of 1.2 zettabytes by 2030; that is the company’s market estimate, not an independently established industry statistic.

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