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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Average Brent crude prices rose 46% in March 2026 compared with February, according to the World Bank. The surge followed military action that began on February 28 and threatened Gulf oil production and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices reflected both actual supply disruptions and expectations about how long shipping and production might remain impaired.
How much did oil prices rise in March?
The figures describe different measures, so they should not be treated as interchangeable:
- Monthly average: The World Bank reported that average Brent crude prices were 46% higher in March 2026 than in February. This is a comparison of monthly averages, not a claim that prices rose 46% on one day or that every benchmark moved by the same amount. World Bank, April 2026.
- Intraday highs: On March 9, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) briefly reached $119.50 and $119.48 per barrel, respectively, before both fell below $90 later that day. These were intraday prices, not closing settlements or monthly averages. Associated Press, March 9, 2026.
- Quarter-end: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said front-month Brent began 2026 at $61 per barrel and ended the first quarter at $118 per barrel. The $118 figure is a quarter-end observation, not March’s average. EIA described the quarter’s rise as the largest inflation-adjusted increase in its data going back to 1988. EIA, April 7, 2026.
Why did geopolitical tensions push prices higher?
Oil prices can rise before a full supply loss is recorded. Traders price in the risk that future production or exports will be interrupted, as well as the cost and uncertainty of moving oil. In March, those expectations were joined by disruptions to shipping and production.
Hormuz shipping risk
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial route for crude oil and petroleum-product exports from the Gulf. In its March 12 report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said tanker traffic through the strait had nearly halted. It estimated that flows had fallen from around 20 million barrels per day before the war to a trickle, and separately described nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product exports as disrupted. These were estimates current at publication, not final full-month totals. IEA, March 12, 2026.
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Production shut-ins and damage
The IEA estimated that crude production curtailments had reached at least 8 million barrels per day, with another 2 million barrels per day of condensates and natural gas liquids affected. It cited reductions in Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. The same report said more than 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity in the region had shut because of attacks or a lack of viable export outlets. Each was a fast-moving estimate made on March 12, not a final tally for the month. IEA, March 12, 2026.
Uncertainty and the risk premium
Attacks, insurance and operational uncertainty, and doubts about the duration of the disruption all affected market expectations. The World Bank’s cross-episode analysis estimates that a 1% oil-production decline associated with a geopolitical shock raises oil prices by 11.5% on average. The report says this response is roughly twice the typical response to oil supply shocks in earlier studies. That is a general estimate across episodes, not a measurement of how much March’s price rise was caused by any specific volume of lost production. World Bank, April 2026.
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Expectations also help explain why prices could reverse sharply even as the underlying risk remained. A price move is not a direct meter of barrels already lost: it also reflects what market participants expect about future supply, shipping access, and the length of a disruption.
Why did Brent rise more than WTI?
Brent and WTI are crude benchmarks tied to different delivery locations and market conditions. Brent was more exposed to higher shipping costs and reduced flows from regions near Hormuz, while strong U.S. inventories and plans to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve helped limit WTI’s increase, according to EIA. For May-delivery futures, EIA reported that Brent’s premium over WTI averaged $11 per barrel in March and peaked at $25 on March 31. Those spread figures describe futures, not consumer fuel prices. EIA, April 7, 2026.
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What did the surge mean for fuel prices?
Crude oil is a major input to refined fuels, but retail prices also depend on refining, distribution, local supply and demand, and the specific product. EIA reported that U.S. average retail gasoline reached $3.99 per gallon on March 30, while diesel reached $5.40 per gallon. EIA said both were the highest in real terms in more than two years. These are U.S. retail observations, not global prices. Distillate and jet fuel rose more than gasoline, which EIA attributed in part to Middle East export disruptions and firm distillate demand. EIA, April 7, 2026.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Could emergency reserves bring prices back down?
On March 11, IEA member countries agreed to make 400 million barrels of emergency reserves available to the market. The IEA described the coordinated release as a buffer and stop-gap measure: reserves could help cushion a temporary shortfall, but lasting relief depended on restoring shipping through Hormuz and on how long the conflict continued. The available reporting does not establish that the reserve announcement alone caused any particular price decline. IEA, March 12, 2026.
The IEA also reported that observed global oil stocks stood at 8,210 million barrels in January 2026, the highest level since February 2021. That figure describes observed stocks at that time; it does not mean every barrel was immediately available in the right location or grade to replace disrupted Gulf flows. IEA, March 12, 2026.
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