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Nebraska’s real gross domestic product fell at a 6.1% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)’s original state estimate, released June 27, 2025. The BEA identified agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting as the leading contributor to the decline. That is an industry-level explanation, not evidence that agriculture was the only cause.
What the 6.1% figure measures
The BEA reported a 6.1% decrease in Nebraska real GDP from the previous quarter, expressed at an annual rate. It is not a 6.1% year-over-year decline. Annualizing a quarterly change expresses the pace as if it continued for a full year; it does not mean Nebraska’s economy contracted by 6.1% during the quarter itself. The figure is the original estimate in the BEA’s June 27, 2025 release.
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In that release, Nebraska and Iowa tied for the largest state real-GDP decreases. Across states, real GDP fell in 39 states; reported results ranged from 1.7% annualized growth in South Carolina to 6.1% declines in Nebraska and Iowa. These comparisons refer to the same measure and original release vintage.
Why agriculture mattered
The BEA named agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting as the leading contributing industry to Nebraska’s first-quarter decline. The category is broader than crop farming, and the BEA’s cited state release does not establish that corn or soybeans alone caused the result. Nor does identifying the leading industry mean it was the only contributor.
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Local context helps explain the pressure farmers were facing, but it should be distinguished from the BEA’s official industry attribution. The Nebraska Examiner’s June 2025 report quoted Creighton University economist Ernie Goss describing falling prices for key crops alongside persistent fertilizer costs as squeezing farmers and reducing spending on agricultural equipment. Goss also said manufacturing contributed to Nebraska’s lower GDP, particularly amid job losses. These are attributed interpretations, not a full BEA breakdown of the quarter’s decline.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What later BEA data changes—and what it does not establish
The 6.1% rate should be treated as the original June 2025 estimate, not automatically as the latest value. In its 2025 annual update, the BEA revised state quarterly GDP estimates from 2020 Q1 through 2025 Q1. Its January 2026 annual-update article does not state Nebraska’s revised Q1 2025 rate, so the original figure cannot be substituted for that revised number.
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The same BEA update says agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting reduced Nebraska’s real GDP growth in 2024 by nearly one percentage point. The agency attributes that annual decline mainly to increased livestock purchases and decreases in inventory change and cash receipts for corn. This is useful context about Nebraska agriculture, but it describes 2024 annual estimates—not a complete explanation of the first-quarter 2025 result.
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How to read the headline without overreading it
- It was real GDP: the measure adjusts for price changes, rather than simply reporting the dollar value of output at current prices.
- It was annualized quarter-over-quarter: it does not mean output fell 6.1% year over year or during Q1 alone.
- Agriculture led: the BEA identified the industry as the leading contributor, not the sole cause.
- The number has a vintage: 6.1% is the original release estimate; later revisions covered the quarter, but the cited annual-update article does not provide its revised Nebraska rate.
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