Kansas net farm income was forecast to rise 87% to $7.74 billion in 2025, but the May 2025 outlook from the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) attributed most of that increase to government payments—not to a broad-based surge in farm earnings. The figure is a projection, not a final measurement of what Kansas farms ultimately earned.
What the 2025 Kansas farm-income forecast said
RaFF, working with Kansas State University’s Department of Agricultural Economics, projected Kansas net farm income to increase 87% in 2025, reaching $7.74 billion. Its forecast put direct government payments at $2.7 billion, up $2.1 billion from 2024. Those payments accounted for 59% of the net difference in farm income between the two years.
That distinction matters: net farm income combines more than sales of crops and livestock. The forecast also included government payments and insurance indemnities, while accounting for expenses and non-cash adjustments.
How the forecast expected other components to change
| Component | May 2025 forecast for Kansas |
|---|---|
| Net farm income | $7.74 billion in 2025, up 87% from 2024 (RaFF forecast) |
| Direct government payments | $2.7 billion in 2025, $2.1 billion more than in 2024; 59% of the net difference in income (RaFF forecast) |
| Crop receipts | Increase of $621 million, or 8%, in 2025 (RaFF forecast) |
| Production expenses | Decrease of $172 million, or 1%, in 2025 (RaFF forecast) |
| Federal crop-insurance indemnities | Increase of $99 million in 2025 (RaFF forecast) |
These are forecast values from RaFF’s May 2025 outlook, not confirmed year-end results. The forecast’s expected increase in crop receipts assumed yields would recover from recent lows under normal weather conditions.
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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsWhy government payments drove the increase
In its June 18, 2025 coverage of a Kansas farm-income webinar, the Kansas Reflector quoted Kansas State University professor and extension specialist Jennifer Ifft: “What drove that sharp increase that we see from 2024 to 2025? The answer is government payments.” The comment captures the forecast’s central point: payments made up the largest identified driver of the projected jump.
Payments can lift a farm-income estimate even when market receipts are under pressure. For 2025, RaFF projected crop receipts to rise, but the additional $2.1 billion in direct government payments compared with 2024 was a much larger change than the forecasted $621 million increase in crop receipts.
For context—not as a Kansas figure—the outlook cited a USDA Economic Research Service national forecast of U.S. net farm income rising from $139 billion in 2024 to $180 billion in 2025 in nominal terms. A $33 billion increase in direct government payments was identified as the major national driver.
Crop and livestock conditions were not moving together
The statewide outlook combined sectors with different recent trajectories. RaFF projected Kansas crop receipts to increase $621 million, or 8%, in 2025, with increases expected across four major commodities. It also projected lower feed, fertilizer, pesticide, fuel, and oil expenses, partly offset by higher costs for purchased livestock, labor, and property taxes.
Livestock
RaFF expected Kansas livestock receipts to maintain solid levels. Cattle and calves represented 89% of projected livestock receipts, and their 2025 cash receipts were forecast to remain stable at $15 billion.
Longer-running divergence
The Kansas Reflector’s webinar coverage described livestock receipts as having risen by more than $5 billion since 2020, while crop receipts had fallen about $1.6 billion from 2020 to the 2025 projection. The latter figure includes a projected 2025 value; it is not a comparison of two fully measured historical years.
What the forecast says about farm-level finances
A statewide total does not mean every operation was profitable. Kansas Reflector reported that, in the farms represented by Kansas Farm Management Association data, about half would have lost money in 2024 without government payments. That finding applies to the farms in that data set; it should not be generalized to every Kansas farm.
Farm finances differ with the mix of crops and livestock, sales prices, yields, expenses, insurance outcomes, and eligibility for payments. A statewide net-income estimate is useful for understanding the sector as a whole, but it cannot tell an individual farmer whether their operation made money.
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RaFF said its model used equations calibrated with historical USDA Economic Research Service, Risk Management Agency, and Farm Service Agency data. It incorporated national and regional projections from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri (FAPRI-MU), adjusted those projections using the latest USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service prospective planting report, and included input from Kansas State agricultural economists.
The report said its net cash farm income calculation follows USDA ERS methodology: cash receipts, government payments, and insurance indemnities are counted against cash expenses in the calendar year the cash flows occur. Net farm income then adjusts net cash farm income for non-cash income and expenses and changes in inventory values.
The outlook cautioned that it did not fully account for tariff announcements and did not consider market uncertainty. It also warned that relatively small proportional changes in cash receipts or production expenses can dramatically alter the net farm-income outlook. The projected 2025 increase should therefore be read as a model-based estimate under its assumptions, not a guarantee.
Why the forecast pointed to a lower 2026
RaFF projected Kansas net farm income to fall 24% to $5.84 billion in 2026, mainly because direct government payments were expected to return toward historical-average levels. This was also a forecast in the May 2025 outlook. It illustrates how a year with unusually high projected payments can produce a sharp rise in aggregate income followed by a decline, even without assuming that crop and livestock revenues move in lockstep with payments.
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