Lower mortgage rates had not produced the strong pickup in home sales Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman expected, he said during the company’s August 2024 earnings call. His “Twilight Zone” remark described his surprise at the muted response; it was not a measurement of the housing market or an explanation of why buyers held back.
What Kelman meant by the “Twilight Zone” remark
Redfin reported second-quarter 2024 results on Aug. 6, 2024. On the earnings call, Kelman said: “I can’t remember a time when rates came down this far, this fast, and the market has been so muted in its response.” (The Motley Fool’s transcript of Redfin’s Q2 2024 earnings call.)
He was describing a gap between falling mortgage rates and the housing-market activity he had expected to follow. The comment reflected his perspective as Redfin’s CEO, not a formal finding that rates should have triggered a particular level of sales.
What the 2024 figures showed
GeekWire, citing Redfin data, reported that pending home sales were down 5.7% year over year, mortgage purchase applications were down 14%, and inventory was 30% below pre-pandemic levels. These figures describe the period covered by contemporaneous reporting in 2024; they should not be read as current market statistics. (GeekWire’s report on Redfin’s earnings and housing-market comments.)
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Redfin’s business results were a separate measure from housing-market activity. GeekWire reported Q2 2024 revenue of $295.2 million, up 7% year over year, and a net loss of $27.9 million. Those company results do not, by themselves, explain why home sales were slow.
Why lower rates may not have brought buyers back
Redfin pointed to several possible headwinds: still-high home prices, political uncertainty, and a shortage of desirable listings. The company presented these as possible factors, not as proven causes. The available reporting does not establish how much each contributed to buyer hesitation. (GeekWire.)
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A lower mortgage rate can improve the cost of financing a home, but that does not necessarily make a purchase affordable or appealing if prices remain high or buyers cannot find a suitable listing. The reported inventory shortfall also points to a constraint beyond the cost of borrowing: fewer homes available can limit transactions even when financing conditions improve. These considerations help frame the possibilities Redfin raised; they do not establish a definitive causal account.
What Redfin expected—and what it did not assume
Kelman expressed hope on the call that lower rates would help the market strengthen in 2025. That was a forecast voiced in 2024, not evidence of what happened in 2025 or of conditions in 2026. In the same call, CFO Chris Nielsen said Redfin was not making a significant assumption that recent rate declines would improve the market in its near-term guidance. The contrast matters: Kelman’s longer-range optimism was not the same as a near-term forecast built into the company’s guidance.
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How to read this story today
The headline captures a specific August 2024 moment: Redfin’s CEO was surprised that sales activity had not responded more strongly to recently lower rates. The figures and possible explanations above belong to that period. They cannot answer whether mortgage rates, home sales, affordability, or inventory are different now; a current assessment would require current market data.
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- DEDICATED BUYER QUALIFYING KEYS: Enter client's income, debt and expenses to pre-qualify them to only show properties they can afford. Include tax, insurance and mortgage insurance then compare loan options and payment solutions to give your client choices before they make an offer to buy
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