Easter demand can add pressure to the egg market, but it does not explain the full run-up in prices. The main driver of the recent U.S. spikes was a supply shock: highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) reduced laying flocks and egg production. Prices can also stay high at grocery stores after wholesale prices fall because retail pricing and contracts adjust more slowly.
The timing in the original headline is no longer current: Western Easter fell on April 5 in 2026 and is scheduled for March 28 in 2027, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Easter date table. The latest retail-price observation covered here is August 2026, not a current shelf price.
Why egg prices rose so sharply
HPAI outbreaks forced the depopulation of egg-laying hens and reduced the supply of eggs. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) identifies those flock and production losses as central contributors to the recent price increases. During the outbreak wave from mid-October 2024 through early March 2025, 50.7 million egg-laying hens were depopulated, according to USDA ERS.
Retail egg prices rose 32.2% in 2022, 1.4% in 2023, 8.5% in 2024 and 21.9% in 2025. Those are annual changes reported by USDA ERS; they show how the market continued to experience pressure even after the exceptionally large 2022 increase.
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Why Easter demand is only part of the story
Holiday demand can tighten an already constrained market, but it is seasonal rather than a complete explanation for multi-year price increases. In a March 20, 2026 market update, USDA said much of the Easter and Passover business had already been completed and demand was easing. That timing is consistent with a short-lived seasonal influence, not a reason by itself for persistently high prices.
Why grocery prices can lag wholesale prices
Wholesale egg prices often react quickly to shifts in supply and seasonal demand. Grocery prices may move more slowly: retailers use pricing strategies and contracts that can soften short-term wholesale swings, so a fall in wholesale prices does not necessarily show up immediately on store shelves.
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The gap was visible in USDA ERS’s April 2025 figures: the average retail price was $5.12 per dozen, while the monthly average wholesale price was $3.74 per dozen. Wholesale prices had fallen from $8.20 per dozen in February 2025. These are historical figures for those months, not current prices.
What the latest U.S. data says about prices
In the USDA ERS September 2026 outlook, retail egg prices rose 3.5% from July to August 2026 but were 23.0% lower than in August 2025. A monthly increase and a year-over-year decline can both be true: they compare different periods.
USDA ERS forecast that retail egg prices would decrease 29.4% in 2026, with a forecast interval from -32.9% to -25.2%. This is a forecast, not a final full-year result. USDA did not provide a national average retail dollar price per dozen for August 2026 in the figures summarized here, so these percentages should not be mistaken for a current shelf price. Local prices depend on where and when someone shops.
Could rebuilding supply bring prices down?
USDA expected production to rise in 2026 as the laying flock rebuilt and replacement pullets became available. It also revised table-egg production and exports upward for the year, citing flock rebuilding and international demand. That points toward improving supply, although forecasts can change and do not guarantee a particular price at a particular store.
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As another indication of rebuilding, the Associated Press reported that U.S. egg-type chick hatchings rose 8% from July 2024 to July 2025, citing LEAP Market Analytics executive director Mark Jordan. Chick hatchings are a supply signal, not a direct measure of how quickly grocery prices will change.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What this means for shoppers
National market data can explain the direction of prices, but it cannot tell a shopper what a dozen eggs costs at a nearby store today. For a useful local comparison, check prices at the same time and compare like with like: the same dozen size, grade and production claims. The available market evidence does not establish that organic, conventional, or any particular brand will be cheaper.
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