Bird flu can push egg prices higher by reducing the number of laying hens and the eggs they produce. But the latest U.S. data do not show prices currently climbing year over year: retail egg prices in August 2026 were 3.5% higher than in July, yet 23.0% lower than in August 2025. USDA’s current forecast calls for a 29.4% decrease across calendar 2026, not another nationwide surge. New outbreaks could still interrupt that recovery.
Why does bird flu affect egg prices?
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), often called bird flu, can lead to the loss of laying hens. When outbreaks reduce layer flocks, farms produce fewer eggs. If available supply tightens relative to demand, prices can rise. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) attributes egg-price increases during the outbreak that began in 2022 to reductions in egg-layer flocks and egg production.
The price effect is not necessarily immediate or identical everywhere. Retail prices reflect more than the number of eggs produced, and the official material cited here does not assign a precise share of price changes to demand, retailer margins, distribution, or other costs. A national retail measure also cannot tell you what a particular store will charge or whether it has eggs in stock.
Are egg prices still high in 2026?
The answer depends on the comparison. USDA ERS reported that national retail egg prices rose 3.5% from July to August 2026, but were 23.0% below August 2025. A one-month increase and a year-over-year decline can both be true; they describe different periods.
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| Measure | Reported change | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Retail, August 2026 versus July 2026 | Up 3.5% | Observed month-to-month change in the USDA ERS retail series. |
| Retail, August 2026 versus August 2025 | Down 23.0% | Observed year-over-year change in the USDA ERS retail series. |
| Retail, calendar year 2026 forecast | Down 29.4%; forecast interval: -32.9% to -25.2% | USDA ERS forecast, not an observed result or a promise about any month’s price. |
| Farm-level, August 2026 versus July 2026 | Up 49.1% | USDA ERS farm-level series; not the price consumers pay at retail. |
| Farm-level, August 2026 versus August 2025 | Down 59.4% | USDA ERS farm-level series; not directly comparable to the retail price paid by shoppers. |
The figures are from USDA ERS’s Food Price Outlook – Summary Findings, updated September 25, 2026, using August 2026 CPI data. The forecast covers the full calendar year and is expressed as a percentage change; it is not a dollar-per-dozen estimate. The cited official material does not provide a directly comparable August 2026 national retail dollar-per-dozen value, so a specific checkout price cannot be inferred from these percentages.
Will egg prices go up again?
They could rise if new outbreaks cause significant losses in laying flocks, but a renewed nationwide increase is not USDA’s current baseline forecast. ERS forecasts that retail egg prices will decrease 29.4% in calendar 2026, with a forecast interval of -32.9% to -25.2%. Forecasts can change as disease conditions and market supply evolve, and the interval is not a guarantee that every household or month will follow the same path.
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USDA’s poultry-and-eggs outlook points to improving supply: projected 2026 table-egg production and exports were revised higher, reflecting a rebuilding domestic laying flock and healthy demand from international partners. ERS also says replacement pullets have been sufficient for routine flock turnover and unpredictable HPAI losses. Those conditions support recovery, while leaving the market exposed to disruption if outbreaks intensify.
How much have egg prices changed in recent years?
USDA ERS reports these annual changes in retail egg prices. The figures below describe year-over-year annual price changes, not prices per dozen or changes in a single month.
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| Calendar year | Retail egg price change |
|---|---|
| 2022 | Up 32.2% |
| 2023 | Up 1.4% |
| 2024 | Up 8.5% |
| 2025 | Up 21.9% |
These annual increases help explain why shoppers experienced a substantial run-up before the 2026 decline forecast. They should not be mistaken for a forecast that the same pattern will continue: the latest USDA outlook instead projects lower retail prices for 2026.
What do the bird-flu outbreak figures show?
A USDA Agricultural Marketing Service report dated April 24, 2026 recorded 15.2 million commercial table-egg layer depopulations across 24 HPAI outbreaks in five states during 2026 through that date. The same weekly report noted no new outbreaks that week and five weeks since the last significant outbreak. This is a dated snapshot, not an October 2026 cumulative total, and should not be read as one.
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For the dated figures, see USDA AMS’s Egg Markets Overview – April 24, 2026. USDA APHIS provides background on highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry; its page was modified February 2, 2026.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What this means for a household grocery budget
National statistics show broad trends, not the price of a carton at a specific store. Local prices can vary by location, product, and retailer, and the available figures do not establish whether a particular seller has eggs in stock or offers a better deal. When comparing prices, use the same product and unit—such as price per dozen—and compare stores in the same area. Do not treat a farm-level price movement or a national annual forecast as a direct prediction of your next grocery receipt.
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
