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The September 10, 2025 headline described a seasonal sales gap, not a lasting end to Chinese purchases. At that point, Reuters reported that China had booked no new-crop U.S. soybean cargoes during the main U.S. export window, while buyers covered near-term needs with South American beans. Later USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reports documented renewed U.S. sales—but continued competition from South America.
What did the 2025 headline mean?
Reuters reported on September 10, 2025, that traders tracking shipments had seen no Chinese bookings of new-crop U.S. soybeans. That was notable because the United States normally ships most China-bound soybeans from September through January, before Brazil’s harvest reaches the market. By the same date in 2024, Chinese buyers had booked about 12–13 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for September–November delivery, according to Reuters.
A booking is not the same as a shipment or a customs-recorded import. The 2025 report concerned traders’ observations of sales bookings at a particular point in the season; it did not establish that China had permanently stopped buying from the United States.
Why was China buying soybeans from South America?
Nearby supply fit the shipping calendar
Reuters reported that Chinese buyers had booked about 7.4 million metric tons, mainly from South America, for October 2025 shipment. Traders said that volume covered about 95% of projected October demand. They reported about 1 million tons booked for November, or roughly 15% of expected imports. These were trader-reported bookings, not USDA measurements.
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Brazilian beans were available to meet immediate demand while the U.S. marketing window was open. Reuters also reported that China’s soybean imports in January–July 2025 included 42.26 million tons from Brazil and 16.57 million tons from the United States. Those figures are imports recorded for that period, not forward bookings.
Tariffs outweighed a lower U.S. quoted price
In September 2025, traders told Reuters that U.S. soybeans were 80–90 cents per bushel cheaper than Brazilian soybeans for September–October shipment. But they said China’s then-applicable 23% tariff added around $2 per bushel to the cost of U.S. beans for importers. A lower pre-tariff price therefore did not necessarily make U.S. soybeans the cheaper delivered option.
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The tariff rate changed over time. USDA FAS described a 10% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans in its September 4, 2026 update; that later rate should not be substituted for the 23% figure Reuters reported for September 2025.
Why did Chinese buyers hold back from U.S. cargoes?
Reuters attributed the pause to stalled trade talks and tariff economics. The report also said China’s record soybean imports in May, June, July, and August 2025 had boosted inventories, partly as a hedge against possible fourth-quarter supply disruption. With stocks on hand and South American shipments available, buyers had less immediate reason to absorb the tariff-adjusted cost of U.S. beans.
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The longer-term shift was already visible in trade shares: Reuters, citing customs data, said the United States supplied roughly 20% of China’s soybean imports in 2024, down from 41% in 2016. That comparison describes the share of imports in those years; it does not by itself explain the causes of the decline.
Were billions in U.S. sales actually lost?
Not as a confirmed final tally. Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co, told Reuters that if China stayed out of the U.S. market until mid-November 2025, potential lost sales could reach 14–16 million metric tons. That was a conditional estimate tied to a specific scenario, not an audited measure of sales ultimately lost.
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Reuters also reported that USDA’s U.S. soybean export forecast at the time was 46.4 million tons for MY 2025/26, compared with 51.02 million tons the previous year. Those were figures reported in September 2025 and are not current export forecasts.
Has China resumed buying U.S. soybeans?
Yes. USDA FAS’s September 4, 2026 update said China had purchased 5.7 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. new-crop soybeans for MY 2026/27 as of August 13, 2026. The same update listed another 3.8 MMT sold to “Unknown Destinations.” FAS said such sales can indicate Chinese state-owned enterprise buying, but it did not confirm that all of those sales were China-bound.
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FAS reported that commercial buyers continued relying on South American origins under the 10% retaliatory tariff it described in September 2026, and that Brazil sent record volumes from June through August 2026. Renewed U.S. purchases therefore did not mean South American suppliers had stopped competing for Chinese demand.
A separate commitment marker has a different date and measure
In its 2026 annual report, USDA FAS Beijing said that by February 26, 2026, China had purchased or shipped 10.8 MMT toward a 12 MMT purchase commitment. The report separately noted 2.19 MMT marked “Unknown,” and cautioned that those sales were not confirmed as China-bound. It said purchases had been limited to state-owned enterprises because of the remaining additional tariff. A purchase commitment, purchases or shipments toward that commitment, and sales with an unknown destination are distinct measures and dates—not interchangeable totals.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What does the outlook say about China’s demand?
The 2026 FAS Beijing annual report forecast Chinese soybean imports of 108 MMT for MY 2026/27, 2 MMT above the attaché’s MY 2025/26 projection. The report cited feed demand and moderate growth in animal products. This is an attaché forecast, not a realized import total or official USDA data; it indicates expected demand, not which exporting country will supply it.
In the September 2025 Reuters report, Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting founder Johnny Xiang said, “If a China-U.S. trade deal is reached, the outlook for U.S. soybeans could improve significantly.” That assessment was explicitly conditional and reflected the trade environment at the time.
Quick Recap
How to read soybean trade figures without conflating them
- Bookings or sales: orders or sales reported before cargoes necessarily arrive; the 2025 October and November figures came from traders quoted by Reuters.
- Shipments: cargoes moving or shipped, which may be tracked separately from sales.
- Customs-recorded imports: beans recorded as entering China during a stated period, such as the January–July 2025 origin figures Reuters reported.
- Purchase commitments: agreed targets or commitments, not proof that every ton has been bought or shipped.
- “Unknown Destinations” sales: export-sales entries whose final buyer is not established; FAS cautioned that the cited unknown volumes were not confirmed as China-bound.
- Forecasts and estimates: projections or conditional scenarios, not observed outcomes. The 14–16 million-ton figure was an analyst’s conditional estimate; the 108 MMT figure was an FAS Beijing attaché forecast.
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