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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteEgg prices rose again in August, even as grocery prices overall were flat for the month. The latest U.S. CPI report, released September 11, 2026, shows the seasonally adjusted egg index up 2.9% from July. USDA’s separate retail-price measure, which is not seasonally adjusted, rose 3.5% over the month but remained 23.0% below its August 2025 level. The longer-running reason prices have been elevated is a smaller egg-laying flock after avian flu outbreaks; USDA expects production to recover and forecasts lower average egg prices in 2026.
What does the latest CPI report say about egg prices?
The newest available report as of October 3, 2026 covers August, not September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published it on September 11; the September CPI report is scheduled for October 14. In the August report, the CPI-U egg index increased 2.9% from July on a seasonally adjusted basis. The broader meats, poultry, fish, and eggs grouping rose 0.1%.
For context, food purchased for home consumption was unchanged from July and 2.2% higher than a year earlier. All-items CPI rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the 12 months ending in August. These figures describe different baskets: the egg index is not the same as either grocery inflation overall or inflation across all consumer spending. See the BLS August 2026 CPI release.
Why do BLS and USDA show different monthly increases?
The BLS egg index rose 2.9% month to month after seasonal adjustment. USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) reports that its retail egg-price measure rose 3.5% from July to August without seasonal adjustment. The numbers are not competing readings of an identically defined measure: they come from different measures and adjustment bases.
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The year-over-year comparison is different again. USDA ERS says its retail egg-price measure was 23.0% lower in August 2026 than in August 2025. That decline can coexist with a one-month increase: prices may rise from July while remaining well below the level a year earlier. USDA’s figures are in its September 2026 Food Price Outlook summary.
Why have eggs been expensive?
Avian flu reduced the laying flock
USDA ERS attributes elevated egg prices since 2022 to the continuing highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak, which has reduced the number of egg-laying hens and egg production. With fewer eggs reaching the market, supply is tighter. Restoring production takes time because the laying flock must be rebuilt.
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BLS’s retrospective account says the 2022 avian-flu waves were the main contributor to that year’s steep egg-price rise and affected nearly 60 million egg-laying birds. Prices moved back toward more typical levels in the first half of 2023 as supply recovered. See the BLS retrospective on food prices and the pandemic.
Price history shows how sharply the market can move
USDA ERS reports these annual retail egg-price changes: 32.2% higher in 2022, 1.4% higher in 2023, 8.5% higher in 2024, and 21.9% higher in 2025. Farm-level prices followed a different and more volatile path; they are not the prices shoppers pay at the store.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches| Year | Retail egg prices | Farm-level egg prices |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Up 32.2% | Up 163.1% |
| 2023 | Up 1.4% | Down 28.3% |
| 2024 | Up 8.5% | Up 43.1% |
| 2025 | Up 21.9% | Up 31.6% |
These annual changes are USDA ERS figures, not BLS CPI month-to-month changes. A farm-price increase or decrease does not translate one-for-one or immediately into the price of a particular carton.
Are egg prices expected to fall?
USDA ERS’s September 2026 outlook raised its projection for 2026 table-egg production and exports, citing rebuilding of the domestic laying flock and healthy international demand. It also lowered its projected average egg price for the third quarter based on recent prices. ERS said fewer HPAI detections occurred in the first quarter of 2026 than in the same quarter of 2025, and replacement pullets were sufficient for ordinary flock turnover and unpredictable outbreak losses. Read the USDA ERS Poultry & Eggs market outlook, updated September 18, 2026.
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For the full year, USDA ERS forecasts that the average retail egg price will fall 29.4% in 2026, with a forecast interval from 25.2% to 32.9% lower. That is a model-based forecast, not an observed result or a promise about what any shopper will pay. ERS says its forecasts use statistical models fitted to recent trends; they can change as conditions and data change. Outbreak losses, flock rebuilding and other market conditions affect how the forecast translates into prices over time.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Does the CPI tell you what a carton should cost?
No. CPI measures changes in prices paid by consumers, not a universal shelf price. CPI-U reflects spending patterns for urban consumers and covers more than 90% of the U.S. population; it excludes rural nonmetropolitan residents, farming families, Armed Forces members, and people in institutions. The index is useful for tracking a national trend, but it is not a quote for a specific household, store, location, egg size, or production method.
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The August 2026 CPI release and USDA ERS summary do not establish a national dollar-per-dozen price for that month. A shopper’s bill can differ from the index movement because the index tracks price change rather than the price of every carton on every shelf. BLS explains the scope of CPI-U in its CPI questions and answers.
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