India’s broad GST rate changes took effect on 22 September 2025, and Elara Securities executive vice president Karan Taurani argued the cuts could support discretionary spending and consumer-company earnings. In an interview updated 23 September, he highlighted Nykaa, Trent and United Spirits, alongside quick-service restaurants (QSRs). His figures are analyst estimates, not realized results or current stock recommendations.
What changed, and when did it take effect?
The 56th GST Council’s general rate changes for goods and services took effect on 22 September 2025. There is an important exception: cigarettes, chewing tobacco products such as zarda, unmanufactured tobacco and beedi retained their existing GST and compensation cess until a later notified date linked to repayment of compensation-cess loan and interest liabilities. The government’s FAQ on the Council’s decisions sets out the effective-date and transition details; the Council’s recommendations provide the policy context.
The tax change is the policy event; whether it lifts a company’s sales or earnings depends on how much of the tax reduction reaches customers, how demand responds, and how the business manages costs and competition. Alcohol also has state-duty exposure, so its tax picture is not uniform across India.
How large is the consumer-spending opportunity?
Taurani estimated that the changes could generate nearly ₹96,000 crore in additional consumer spending through a multiplier effect, according to The Economic Times interview updated 23 September 2025. This is his projection, not a government spending commitment or a measured outcome. He estimated food services could capture ₹6,000–7,000 crore and fashion ₹5,000–6,000 crore.
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His reported analysis said obligatory spending takes 40% of consumer wallets and necessities another 25%. The interview does not identify the underlying study or methodology for those shares, so they should be read as part of Taurani’s analysis rather than as universal household-budget statistics. His broader thesis is that lower tax costs may leave consumers with more to spend, with discretionary categories positioned to receive a meaningful share.
What could the GST changes mean for the named stocks?
Nykaa: hair-care growth, offset by valuation and competition
Taurani linked a GST reduction on hair care to a category he said was growing online by 35–40% annually. He projected a 0.7–0.8% revenue upgrade for Nykaa; the interview also described a possible 2–2.5% FY27 revenue uplift and 4–5% EBITDA upgrade after factoring in hair-care GST changes. These are dated estimates, not reported company results.
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The same interview identified material risks: Taurani described Nykaa as trading at nearly 90 times FY27 beauty and personal care (BPC) earnings and warned that quick-commerce competition could challenge growth. The projected operating benefit therefore does not, by itself, establish that the stock is attractively valued.
Trent: fashion demand, with execution risks at Zudio
Taurani expected fashion to benefit from increased discretionary spending and said Trent remained attractive over the long term. He also pointed to aggressive competition facing Zudio from entrants such as Style Union and said the company’s ability to sustain margins in upcoming quarters would matter. The long-term view is conditional, not an unconditional buy call.
United Spirits: possible earnings uplift, but state duties matter
Taurani estimated United Spirits and alcohol peers could see EBITDA upgrades of 1–1.5%. He also flagged state-duty increases as a potential volume headwind. Because the interview does not provide state-by-state tax details, its estimate should not be read as evidence of a uniform alcohol-tax reduction or a predictable effect in every state.
Why did Taurani also highlight QSRs?
He described QSRs as potential beneficiaries because of their high gross margins and the operating leverage that can follow a modest revenue increase. Taurani said QSR chains’ gross margins were 70–75% and estimated that a 1–2% revenue upgrade could translate into a 4–5% EBITDA upgrade. He named Jubilant FoodWorks as well positioned, citing cheese as nearly 30% of its costs and its delivery exposure. He contrasted QSR economics with the thinner contribution margins of food aggregators.
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The interview separately discussed a proposed 18% GST on delivery charges. Taurani said that, if enforced, it could add ₹12–13 per order and potentially affect orders below ₹200. This was presented as a proposal in the interview, not as a confirmed final rule.
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| Company or category | Potential earnings route in Taurani’s September 2025 view | Risks or qualifications he identified |
|---|---|---|
| Nykaa | Hair-care GST change; projected revenue and EBITDA upgrades | Nearly 90 times FY27 BPC earnings, as described in the interview; quick-commerce competition |
| Trent | Fashion spending and potential long-term growth | Competition at Zudio, including Style Union; margin sustainability |
| United Spirits | Estimated 1–1.5% EBITDA upgrades for the company and alcohol peers | State-duty increases could weigh on volumes; state tax conditions vary |
| QSRs | Operating leverage; estimated 4–5% EBITDA upgrade from a 1–2% revenue upgrade | Delivery-charge GST discussion was a proposal, not an established final rule |
Taurani also expected staples and white goods to see milder, premiumisation-driven growth of 3–5%, rather than the stronger discretionary opportunity he saw in areas such as fashion and food services.
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What should investors take from these forecasts?
- Treat the figures as dated estimates. The projections were reported in September 2025 and do not establish subsequent results or current analyst ratings.
- Separate policy from company performance. A national GST change does not guarantee full consumer price pass-through, higher demand or improved margins.
- Assess each business on its own risks. Nykaa’s valuation and competition, Trent’s margin execution and United Spirits’ state-duty exposure can alter the outcome even if consumer demand improves.
- Check current company disclosures before making an investment decision. The interview does not provide updated results, price targets or current stock recommendations.
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