There is no month that is reliably best for every corn grower. A 2026 Southern Ag Today analysis points to December through March as a historically stronger window for marketing the 2027 crop if the 2026/27 corn supply outlook remains near its projected average range. That is a conditional seasonal signal, not a price forecast. Your breakeven, expected production, local basis, insurance, cash needs, and storage costs should determine how much to price and when.
What the seasonal evidence says
Julio Bellodi Cortarelli and Grant Gardner examined daily settlement prices for December corn futures over 35 contract years, 1990–2024. They called a settlement a “good marketing day” if it fell in the top quarter of that contract year’s prices, then measured what share of trading days in a period met that definition. The result is a historical frequency measure—not the chance a farm will make a profit, and not a comparison of local cash prices.
The seasonal pattern differed by supply category. Their corn windows were December–March for winter, April–July for the growing season, and August–December for harvest.
| Corn supply category | Harvest-window share of “good marketing days” | Seasonal pattern reported by Cortarelli and Gardner (2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Tight; ending stocks near 9% of annual use | 38% | Harvest was stronger than the study’s 25% benchmark; winter was much less favorable. |
| Average | 7% | Favorable days were concentrated in winter; a separate winter hit-rate figure is not stated in the analysis. |
| Comfortable; stocks roughly twice the tight-stock level | 1% | Winter and the growing-season window were stronger periods; separate hit-rate figures for those windows are not stated in the analysis. |
The 25% benchmark follows directly from defining a “good” day as a settlement in the top quarter of a contract year’s prices. The authors reported that the September 2026 WASDE projected 2026/27 corn stocks-to-use near 10%, which they placed in their average-supply group. Their resulting December–March signal is for the 2027 crop and depends on the balance sheet staying near that range. A change in projected supplies could change the historical seasonal context; it does not establish what prices will do.
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Translate the outlook into your farm’s numbers
Estimate production before committing bushels
Start with yield history and current crop conditions to estimate saleable production. Iowa State Extension discusses using actual production history (APH) as a yield estimate before pollination and grain fill, and considering crop insurance before committing bushels. Price only a share that you can deliver without taking on unacceptable production or contract risk.
Set a breakeven and a target return
Work out your breakeven cash price and the return you want after production, storage, interest, and marketing costs. Iowa State Extension recommends using cost of production, expected yield, and a reasonable return to establish price objectives. Include local basis: a futures price alone does not tell you what a buyer near your farm will pay.
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Use supply projections as context
Check the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) stocks-to-use projection when reviewing a seasonal plan. Supply estimates are revised, and final ending stocks are not known in advance. Treat the 2026 analysis’s average-supply label as a snapshot of the outlook reported at that time, not a permanent classification or a timing rule.
Write down the decision before the market moves
A written plan can keep a pricing decision from becoming an all-or-nothing bet on one date. For each planned sale, record a target price, a date or period for action, the portion of expected bushels involved, the pricing tool, and what you will do if the target is not reached. Iowa State Extension recommends considering futures prices, basis, crop-insurance projected prices, farm breakeven, and a reasonable return when setting objectives.
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Staging sales over time can reduce dependence on identifying a single perfect day. Extension guidance describes considering a portion before planting, another during spring rallies, and the balance around harvest, with shares tailored to the operation. Those are planning examples, not fixed allocations or a promise of a better average price.
Compare what each marketing choice actually prices
These choices differ in whether they fix the cash price, futures, or basis—and in whether they require delivery. Read the contract for quantity, quality, location, delivery timing, fees, and what happens if production is short.
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| Choice | What it establishes | Key exposure or obligation |
|---|---|---|
| Cash or spot sale | The current local cash price. | The offer reflects local basis; sale is immediate. |
| Forward cash contract | A cash price for specified grain and future delivery. | Commits quantity, quality, location, and timing; a production shortfall can leave a delivery obligation unmet. |
| Basis contract | Local basis. | Futures remain open, so the final price changes with the futures price selected later. |
| Hedge-to-arrive (HTA) contract | Futures price. | Basis remains open; check fees, delivery, and rollover terms. |
| Futures hedge | Futures-market price exposure. | Requires a broker and liquidity for margin requirements or margin calls; basis still affects the final cash price. USDA Economic Research Service (2020) gives 5,000 bushels as the size of a standard corn futures contract, which may be too large for a small pricing increment. |
| Put option or minimum-price structure | A price floor with potential to retain some upside, depending on the structure. | Premiums or fees and the exact instrument terms matter; verify the product and counterparty. |
| Store and sell later | Grain ownership and a later sale opportunity. | Later prices are uncertain; storage, shrink, handling, interest, and basis risk affect the result. |
A deferred-pricing agreement may transfer grain title to the elevator before the price is set. Understand who owns the grain and what service charges apply. For any contract, compare the risk you are fixing with the risk you are leaving open.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Decide whether storage is worth its cost
Storage is a separate economic decision from whether a seasonal chart looks favorable. Compare the expected later cash price with storage, shrink, handling, and interest costs, while accounting for basis risk. Iowa State Extension notes that storage and interest are not free and that basis improvement and futures carry need not occur at the same time. A seasonal tendency by itself does not show that storing will pay.
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Review the plan as production and supply estimates change
- Revisit projected yield and the number of bushels you can safely commit as crop conditions develop.
- Update the supply context when USDA publishes a new WASDE estimate rather than relying on one stocks-to-use category for the whole marketing year.
- Check local basis and delivery terms before choosing a contract; a favorable futures move may not translate into the same cash result at every location.
- Keep enough liquidity for any margin requirements if using futures, and do not commit more grain than you can reasonably deliver.
For a grain-marketing primer, Iowa State Extension’s Marketing Tools Workbook covers common tools and their use.
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