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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesUzbekistan recorded a $13.4 billion trade deficit in the first half of 2026: exports were $15.4 billion and imports $28.8 billion. That gap can increase demand for foreign currency, but it does not by itself predict a weaker sum or higher inflation. The broader current account, the way the gap is financed, exchange-rate policy and other market forces all matter.
What the latest figures show
The Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan’s external-sector review, published September 29, 2026, reports that first-half exports fell 8.6% year on year to $15.4 billion, while imports rose 24% to $28.8 billion. The resulting trade deficit was $13.4 billion. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, H1 2026 review
The headline export decline does not describe every export category. The Central Bank says lower gold exports drove much of the fall in total exports; non-gold exports rose 27% and services exports rose 45%. Import growth reflected machinery and equipment, vehicles, chemical and mineral products, and food, amid sustained investment activity and strong domestic consumer demand. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, H1 2026 review
For context, the Central Bank’s 2025 annual report recorded $32.3 billion in goods-and-services exports, up 23%, and $52.2 billion in imports, up 20%. The full-year trade deficit was $19.9 billion. These are full-year 2025 figures, not a directly comparable period to the $13.4 billion deficit recorded in just the first six months of 2026. The half-year figure should not be annualized into a forecast. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, 2025 annual report Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, 2025 annual report
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Why is Uzbekistan importing more than it exports?
Imports can rise for different reasons, and the headline total alone does not identify their long-term effect. The Central Bank links recent growth to both investment activity and strong consumer demand. Machinery and equipment imports may accompany investment in productive capacity, while imported consumer goods can reflect household demand. The figures do not establish that any particular investment import will raise future production or exports.
Export totals also depend on what is being sold and on commodity prices, not just on how much the economy produces. In the first half of 2026, gold’s decline weighed on total exports even though non-gold and services exports grew. For 2025, the Central Bank noted higher global commodity prices and growth in services exports including travel, transport and IT. A change in the overall export value can therefore reflect prices and export mix as well as production volumes. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, H1 2026 review Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, 2025 annual report
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Trade deficit and current-account deficit are not the same
The trade balance compares exports and imports of goods and services over a specified period. It is negative when imports exceed exports. The current account is broader: alongside trade, it includes primary income and secondary income, such as transfers and remittances. Positive income flows can offset part of a trade deficit.
That distinction is visible in both periods reported by the Central Bank. In the first half of 2026, positive primary-income and secondary-income balances of $1.9 billion and $5.3 billion partly offset the $13.4 billion trade deficit. The current-account deficit was approximately $6.2 billion. In 2025, net secondary income of $13.7 billion and net primary income of about $371 million helped offset the $19.9 billion trade deficit; the current-account deficit was $5.8 billion, or 3.9% of GDP. It was $5.7 billion, or 4.7% of GDP, in 2024. A trade deficit and a current-account deficit can move differently because they measure different flows. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, H1 2026 review Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, 2025 annual report
Will a trade deficit make the Uzbek sum weaker?
Importers paying overseas suppliers may need foreign currency. If demand for foreign currency to pay for imports grows faster than its supply from exports, remittances, investment and other inflows, that imbalance can put pressure on the sum. But the trade balance alone does not determine whether the sum weakens, when it might happen or how much it might move. Foreign-currency supply, policy, market expectations and other balance-of-payments flows also influence the exchange rate.
The recent record is a reminder not to treat the relationship as automatic. IMF staff reported that the sum appreciated 6.9% against the U.S. dollar in 2025. That same year, end-year inflation fell to 7.3% from 9.8% in 2024. The IMF attributed disinflation to several factors, including fading effects of the May 2024 energy-price increases, currency appreciation and tight monetary policy. Those observations do not show that the trade deficit caused either the appreciation or the decline in inflation; they show that other forces can shape both outcomes. IMF, April 2026 staff statement
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Could a weaker sum make prices rise?
If the sum weakens, imported goods and imported inputs used by local businesses may become more expensive in local currency. Businesses may pass some of those higher costs on to customers, but the effect is not necessarily immediate or uniform. It can depend on sellers’ pricing decisions, inventory bought at earlier exchange rates, competition, administered prices and monetary conditions. The trade-deficit figures do not establish a specific price increase for any product.
Inflation forecasts should also be separated from reported outcomes. The IMF’s April 2026 statement said inflation was expected to remain above the Central Bank’s 5% target in 2026 and reach that target in 2027. That is an outlook, not a reported inflation result. IMF, April 2026 staff statement
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Does a deficit mean Uzbekistan’s economy is in trouble?
Not on its own. A deficit says that imports of goods and services exceeded exports over the period; it does not explain whether the imports were financed sustainably or what they will contribute to the economy. Imports linked to investment and imports linked to consumer demand have different purposes, and the Central Bank’s figures do not prove that any particular import will generate future income.
Nor does the trade balance show how the external gap is being funded. A current-account deficit is matched in balance-of-payments accounting by financial flows, reserve transactions or other entries. The Central Bank says Uzbekistan’s first-half 2026 current-account deficit was financed mainly through direct, portfolio and other investment flows. Its H1 review states: “The current account deficit was financed mainly through transactions involving direct, portfolio and other investments, as well as other sources.” Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, H1 2026 review
Financing matters because the source and durability of inflows affect how the country meets external payments over time. A deficit financed by sustained investment flows is different from one that cannot be covered without pressure elsewhere, but the reported figures alone do not settle that broader assessment.
What to watch in future releases
- Trade balance and its composition: Check goods and services separately, and distinguish gold from non-gold exports. This helps show whether a headline move reflects a particular export category or broader change. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, H1 2026 review Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, 2025 annual report
- Current account: Read it alongside trade because income flows can reduce or widen the overall external gap. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, H1 2026 review Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, 2025 annual report
- Remittances and other income: These flows can help fund imports and offset the trade gap; the 2025 secondary-income balance illustrates their scale. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, 2025 annual report
- Financing flows: Look at whether investment and other flows continue to cover the current-account deficit, and what sources are involved. Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, H1 2026 review
- Exchange rate, reserves and inflation: Follow new Central Bank releases and IMF updates rather than infer these outcomes from the trade gap. In its June 2026 assessment, the IMF projected reserves above twelve months of imports by the end of 2026; that was a forecast, not an observed end-2026 result. IMF, June 2026 Article IV assessment IMF, June 2026 Article IV assessment
The IMF’s June 2026 outlook projected a current-account deficit of 3.2% of GDP in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027, after 3.9% in 2025. The 2026 and 2027 values are projections, not observed outcomes. IMF, June 2026 Article IV assessment
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