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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →For 2026, USDA forecasts higher U.S. crop receipts but lower inflation-adjusted farm income and rising production expenses; crop and trade conditions vary sharply by commodity, and the record-crop claim applies specifically to 2025 corn—not every crop in 2026.
What the 2026 farm-income forecast says
USDA Economic Research Service (ERS), in a forecast updated September 3, 2026, projects calendar-year 2026 net farm income at $158.4 billion. That is $4.3 billion, or 2.6%, below the 2025 estimate in nominal dollars. After inflation, the forecast decline is $9.1 billion, or 5.5%. If realized, net farm income would nevertheless remain above its 2006–25 average measured in 2026 dollars. These are forecasts, not final results. USDA ERS’s farm-sector forecast distinguishes nominal changes from inflation-adjusted ones.
Net farm income and net cash farm income are different
Net farm income is a broad measure of farm-sector profits. Net cash farm income, which ERS forecasts at $176.4 billion for 2026, is expected to rise $0.7 billion (0.4%) nominally from 2025 but decline $4.6 billion (2.5%) after inflation. It counts cash receipts and farm-related cash income, including federal government payments, minus cash expenses. It excludes noncash items such as inventory changes, economic depreciation and imputed rental income from operator dwellings. The two measures answer different questions, so an increase in net cash farm income does not mean the broader profit measure is also increasing.
Crop receipts are only part of the picture
USDA forecasts nominal crop cash receipts of $253.0 billion in 2026, up $14.6 billion (6.1%) from 2025. Corn, soybeans and cotton receipts are projected to increase, while rice and sugar-crop receipts are projected to decline. Meanwhile, animal and animal-product receipts are forecast to fall to $287.3 billion. Total farm cash receipts are projected to decrease $1.7 billion (0.3%) to $540.3 billion. A stronger crop-receipt outlook therefore does not describe the whole farm sector.
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Costs are forecast to rise
Total farm production expenses are forecast at $492.8 billion in 2026, up $21.2 billion (4.5%) from the 2025 estimate of $471.6 billion. In inflation-adjusted terms, the increase is forecast at $7.1 billion (1.5%). Fertilizer, lime and soil conditioner expenses are projected to rise $5.3 billion (15.3%), while fuel and oil expenses are projected to rise $4.8 billion (28.8%). Higher expected receipts do not by themselves establish how much individual farms will retain after expenses.
Government payments are a separate component
Direct government farm payments are forecast at $47.4 billion in 2026, $19.5 billion above 2025. ERS attributes much of the expected increase to commodity-linked payments and supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance. The agency’s direct-payment measure excludes Federal Crop Insurance Corporation indemnities and USDA loans, so it is not a total of every form of federal support.
Why trade conditions differ by commodity
Trade exposure is shaped by more than tariffs or any single policy decision. USDA ERS identifies trade policies, global supplies and prices, exchange rates, population and income, economic growth, and government support as factors affecting agricultural trade. As ERS puts it, “Global economic conditions drive demand for food and agricultural products, providing the foundation for U.S. agricultural trade.”
For wheat, USDA ERS’s page updated September 18, 2026 forecasts global wheat trade in marketing year 2026/27 to be 6% below the previous year’s record. Black Sea transit complications contribute to higher prices, while larger crops among key importers in North Africa and the Middle East reduce their import needs. U.S. wheat exports are forecast at a three-year low, with limited domestic supplies linked to drought and the smallest planted area since records began in 1919. The ERS wheat outlook describes these interacting supply and demand pressures.
For broader trade figures, USDA ERS and the Foreign Agricultural Service published an August 2026 quarterly outlook covering fiscal years 2026 and 2027. A U.S. fiscal year runs from October 1 through September 30; those figures are not directly interchangeable with calendar-year farm-income estimates. The report’s landing page confirms its horizon but does not reproduce detailed forecast tables, so it does not support a specific export or import total on its own. The August agricultural trade outlook page provides the report information.
For observed trade values and destinations, ERS’s Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States (FATUS) page offers monthly and year-to-date export and import tables, trade balances, and leading export markets by volume for wheat, corn, soybeans and cotton. Its data page was updated September 8, 2026, and listed October 9 as the next update. Any destination or value claim should identify the commodity, month and measure; the data page alone does not establish the effect of a particular tariff. Check the FATUS tables for the latest available trade data.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What “record crops” means in the current outlook
“Record crops” needs a crop and a year attached. USDA’s January 2026 annual summary estimated U.S. corn-for-grain production for 2025 at a record 17.0 billion bushels, 14% above 2024. This is a retrospective estimate of the 2025 crop, not a confirmed record for 2026. USDA NASS’s 2025 Crop Production Summary reports the estimate.
Wheat production fell in 2026
USDA NASS’s September 30, 2026 Small Grains Annual Summary estimated 2026 U.S. all-wheat production at 1.53 billion bushels, down 23% from revised 2025 production. Harvested area was down 15%, and estimated yield was down 10% year over year. Those production estimates show why the 2025 corn record cannot be generalized to all 2026 crops.
Soybean estimates moved higher
In its September 18 outlook, USDA ERS reported that the latest Crop Production report raised the 2026/27 soybean yield estimate from 52.7 to 52.8 bushels per acre, and raised planted and harvested acreage by 0.1 million acres each. The production forecast increased by 16 million bushels to 4.5 billion bushels; the export forecast rose 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion. These are upward revisions, not evidence that soybean production set a record. The ERS soybean and oil-crops outlook covers the forecast.
Stocks are inventories, not harvests
USDA NASS reported that old-crop corn stocks on hand September 1, 2026 totaled 2.10 billion bushels, up 35% from September 1, 2025. Soybean stocks were down 3% and all-wheat stocks down 14% year over year. Stocks are inventories measured at a date; they are not production estimates or a measure of that year’s harvest. The same September 30 release contains the grain-stocks figures alongside crop estimates. Read USDA NASS’s Grain Stocks report.
Quick Recap
How to read the figures without conflating them
- Check the time period. Farm-income forecasts refer to calendar year 2026; trade outlooks may use fiscal years, while crop estimates refer to a crop year or marketing year.
- Check the measure. Net farm income, net cash farm income, cash receipts, production expenses, production, stocks and exports are not interchangeable.
- Check whether it is a forecast or an observed figure. The 2026 income and expense numbers are forecasts; the 2025 corn record and 2026 wheat estimate are production estimates; stocks report inventory on a specified date.
- Check the basis. A nominal dollar change differs from an inflation-adjusted change, and a national forecast does not determine the outcome for every farm or commodity.
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