The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is October 27–28, 2026—not this week. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% in September, citing elevated inflation, while weak September jobs data have made another hike less certain. A hike remains possible, but a pause is also a serious possibility; neither the Fed nor the available evidence establishes the outcome.
For readers asking whether the Federal Reserve will hike rates later this month, the key issues are whether new inflation data show progress toward the Fed’s 2% goal, how policymakers weigh weaker employment, and how the evidence compares with the Fed’s published projections. Futures-market odds are only a dated snapshot, not a Fed forecast or a guarantee.
What changed since the September Fed meeting
On September 16, the FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the federal funds rate target range by a quarter percentage point, to 3.75%–4.00%. The Fed said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace and inflation remained elevated. This is the latest official decision available as of October 5, 2026.
Since then, employment data have pointed to a more complicated trade-off. The Associated Press reported that employers added 29,000 jobs in September, below the roughly 90,000 expected by economists it surveyed. Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, and revisions removed 60,000 jobs from July and August combined. The AP also noted that inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% target. Weaker hiring may weigh against another hike, while elevated inflation argues against assuming the inflation problem is solved.
The Fed’s September Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) provides context, not a promise. Its median projection for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026 was 4.1%. The projections are participants’ individual assessments, not a decision signal for October.
Hike or hold? The main possibilities
The October decision is genuinely open. The September rate increase and elevated inflation leave another hike on the table; weaker employment and falling market-implied hike odds make a pause a serious alternative. The evidence available here does not support certainty about the vote.
| Option | Evidence to weigh | What to keep in mind |
|---|---|---|
| Another hike | The September statement said inflation remained elevated. New inflation releases before the meeting could affect the decision. | A hike is possible, not established. Do not treat the September SEP projection as a commitment. |
| Hold rates steady | September payroll gains were weak and unemployment increased, while reported futures odds of a hike fell. | A hold would not mean inflation is back to target or that future policy is settled. |
On October 2, Kiplinger reported CME FedWatch futures-implied odds of a 25-basis-point October hike at 22.7%, down from 64.2% a week earlier. This is a time-stamped market calculation, not the Fed’s forecast, and it can change as data and expectations move. Kiplinger quoted Bill Adams, chief economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank, saying: “Their next decision in late October is live,” and that it “will probably be swayed by the September CPI and PPI reports, geopolitical developments, and prices at the pump between now and then.”
What Fed projections do—and do not—tell you
The September SEP’s median 2026 projections were 2.3% real GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, 3.7% PCE inflation, and a 4.1% federal funds rate. These are medians of participants’ projections, not observed outcomes, promises, or a forecast of the October vote. Source for these figures: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 16, 2026 SEP.
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What to watch before and during the meeting
- Check new inflation releases. The September statement said inflation remained elevated. The inflation data available before October 27–28 may help show whether price pressures are progressing toward the Fed’s 2% goal. The set of releases and dates was not verified in this research, so check the latest official calendar and data before relying on any particular release.
- Follow employment evidence. September payrolls and unemployment were weaker than expected, according to the Associated Press. Watch whether subsequent evidence reinforces or changes that picture.
- Read market odds with their timestamp and source. The October 2 figure reported by Kiplinger was 22.7% for a quarter-point hike. It is not a fixed probability or a statement by the Fed.
- Read the Fed’s decision materials. Look at the FOMC statement, vote, implementation note, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. The October meeting is not marked as an SEP meeting on the Fed’s calendar, so do not expect a new dot plot based on the current schedule.
- Use the September minutes as background, not a current-data update. The Fed scheduled the minutes of its September 15–16 meeting for October 7. They can explain participants’ discussion, but predate later data.
Why the statement and press conference matter
The statement and press conference explain how the Committee interprets incoming evidence and its policy decision. They can clarify how officials weigh elevated inflation against employment risks, but avoid reading a single phrase as a promise about the next rate move. The October meeting’s conclusion should be judged against the data available to policymakers at that time.
The Fed’s September statement said: “The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.” Source: Federal Open Market Committee, September 16, 2026 statement.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.FAQ
When is the next Fed meeting?
The next scheduled FOMC meeting is October 27–28, 2026, according to the Federal Reserve’s meeting calendar. It is later this month, not the week of October 5.
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Will the Fed raise interest rates in October?
The outcome is not certain. The September hike and elevated inflation leave another increase possible, while weak September employment data and lower reported futures odds make a pause a serious possibility.
What is the current federal funds rate target range?
Following the September 16 decision, the target range is 3.75%–4.00%, according to the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement.
Does the October meeting include a new dot plot?
The Federal Reserve’s 2026 calendar does not mark the October 27–28 meeting as one associated with an SEP. The December 8–9 meeting is marked for SEP materials. Check the Fed calendar for any later change.
Are market-implied rate odds the Fed’s forecast?
No. They are futures-market calculations and can change. The 22.7% chance of an October hike reported by Kiplinger was an October 2 snapshot, not an official Fed forecast.
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