Regional jets are expected to remain a way for U.S. airlines to connect smaller markets with larger hubs, but the fleet is projected to grow while shifting toward larger aircraft. The Federal Aviation Administration’s 2026 forecast projects the regional-carrier fleet rising from 1,429 aircraft in 2025 to 2,189 in 2046, with 70–90-seat jets taking a larger role as 50-seat jets leave service. That is a long-range fleet forecast, not a guarantee that any particular city will keep or gain flights.
What will regional jets do in the U.S. airline system?
Regional jets connect markets with comparatively lower demand to larger airline hubs, where passengers can transfer to other flights. They help extend an airline network beyond the routes served by its larger aircraft. Their role is therefore both local and network-wide: a regional flight can provide a community’s scheduled air link while also bringing passengers into a hub’s connecting network.
In a common capacity-purchase arrangement, the regional operator supplies the aircraft and operates the flight, while its major-airline partner controls decisions such as routes, schedules, and pricing. Republic Airways describes this model in its 2025 filing. It says its flights use American Eagle, Delta Connection, or United Express branding. The arrangement helps explain why a regional jet’s presence in a market depends not just on the operator, but also on the larger airline’s network decisions and contract.
Republic reported operating 275 regional jets in 2025, serving about 130 cities with roughly 1,300 daily flights. Those are company-specific figures, not a count of the entire U.S. regional fleet.
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What does the FAA forecast for the regional fleet?
The FAA’s FY 2026–2046 forecast projects a larger regional-carrier fleet, with growth concentrated in regional jets. The figures below are forecasts for the stated years, not delivery commitments or schedules for individual routes.
| Measure | 2025 | 2046 | What the FAA projects |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regional-carrier aircraft | 1,429 | 2,189 | Average annual fleet growth of 2.1% over the forecast period |
| Regional jets | 1,407 | 2,182 | Growth as operators remove 50-seat jets and add larger regional jets |
| Turboprops with at least 31 seats | 22 | 7 | The forecast falls to seven in 2026 and remains at that level through 2046 |
The FAA expects the regional fleet to move toward 70–90-seat jets, particularly Embraer ERJ-175s and Bombardier CRJ550s, as 50-seat jets and older small turboprop and piston aircraft are removed. The projection describes the FAA’s modeled outlook; it does not establish which airlines will acquire which aircraft or where they will fly them.
The projection sits within a broader forecast shaped by near-term constraints. The FAA reports that the total U.S. commercial fleet contracted by 135 aircraft in 2024, then forecasts growth from 6,949 aircraft in 2025 to 10,677 in 2046. It cites higher aircraft utilization, production issues, and continuing supply-chain constraints as limits on near-term growth. The agency prepares forecasts using statistical models for planning and publishes separate tables for U.S. regional carriers, so long-range estimates should be read as expectations subject to assumptions.
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Why is the fleet shifting from 50-seat jets to larger aircraft?
The FAA’s projected change is a change in the size mix, not simply a prediction of more flights. A 70–90-seat jet can carry more passengers on each departure than a 50-seat jet, while the best fit for a particular market depends on demand and operating conditions. The supplied figures do not establish that a larger aircraft will be cheaper to operate, produce lower emissions, or be viable on every route.
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|---|---|---|
| Retain or operate 50-seat regional jets | The FAA expects operators to remove 50-seat jets from the regional fleet. | It does not give route-level costs, fares, fuel burn, or emissions for 50-seat service. |
| Shift toward 70–90-seat regional jets | The FAA expects additions in this size range, especially ERJ-175s and CRJ550s. | It does not identify specific routes, frequencies, or communities that will receive these aircraft. |
Upgauging—a move to larger aircraft—can change the trade-off between capacity per departure and the number of departures or destinations an airline can support. The outcome depends on market demand, airport and runway conditions, operating costs, aircraft availability, contractual limits, and the airline’s network choices. The cited sources do not provide route-by-route thresholds for choosing a regional jet over a mainline aircraft or no scheduled service.
Will regional jets keep serving small cities?
Regional airlines can be especially important to smaller airports. Republic’s 2025 filing cites Regional Airline Association (RAA) figures for 2024 saying regional airlines performed 32% of scheduled U.S. airline flights, carried about 134 million passengers, and exclusively served 64% of U.S. airports with scheduled passenger service. These are RAA figures as reported by Republic, rather than independently verified counts in the filing.
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The figures indicate that regional service has a substantial role in scheduled aviation and that many airports rely on it exclusively. They do not show that every currently served community will retain service. Route decisions remain with airline networks and are affected by whether a market can be served with available aircraft, crews, and contracts.
How could pilot supply affect regional service?
The Government Accountability Office’s 2026 review describes pressure and recovery in the regional-pilot workforce. After the pandemic, larger network and low-cost carriers hired pilots from regional airlines. Selected stakeholders told GAO that those departures contributed to regional-service reductions in small communities.
GAO also found that pilot certifications grew about 10% from 2017 through 2024, with most of the increase occurring from 2021 onward. Stakeholders said slower hiring by larger airlines—partly associated with aircraft delivery delays—may have helped regional airlines retain staff and move toward pre-pandemic staffing. These findings point to a workforce that can be affected by hiring patterns across the industry, not a fixed supply pipeline.
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As of February 2026, FAA officials told GAO that the agency had established Enhanced Qualification Program requirements internally and set up the national oversight office for Designated Pilot Examiners. The agency had not established public timelines for issuing the requirements or for its first required report. GAO recommended that the FAA establish and publicly communicate those timelines; the status update is not evidence that the programs have already increased regional pilot supply.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What limits the aircraft airlines can use?
Regional aircraft are also shaped by scope clauses: provisions in major-airline pilot-union contracts that limit the number or size of aircraft operated by regional affiliates. Testimony at a June 2026 House hearing described common limits of 50, 70, or 76 seats and a maximum takeoff weight of 86,000 pounds. These are contractual limits discussed in testimony, not federal seat limits.
The Regional Airline Association’s testimony argued that scope clauses can complicate modernization and affect aircraft availability for smaller communities, as well as influence which aircraft manufacturers have reason to build. That is a stakeholder’s policy argument, not an independent causal study. Contract limits may constrain options, but they do not alone determine whether a particular route is viable or whether a community will lose service.
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What could slow or reshape the forecast?
A forecast fleet must be delivered, staffed, and deployed before it can translate into service. The FAA identifies production and supply-chain constraints as factors limiting near-term fleet growth. Republic’s filing also identifies staffing, aircraft deliveries, parts availability, financing, partner-airline contracts, and fuel-price volatility as factors that can affect operations.
- Aircraft and parts: Production delays or unavailable parts can affect when aircraft enter service and how reliably they operate.
- Airline contracts and network plans: A regional operator may fly under a major airline’s brand, but the partner’s route and scheduling choices shape where the aircraft are used.
- Crews: Hiring by larger airlines can draw pilots from regional operators; changes in hiring can ease or intensify that pressure.
- Market and airport fit: Demand, airport conditions, and costs influence whether a given aircraft size works for a route.
These dependencies explain why projected fleet growth and community-level access are different questions. The FAA forecasts the number and mix of aircraft across a broad period; the forecast does not promise a specific frequency, route, or airport outcome.
How should the global aircraft outlook be read?
Embraer’s Market Outlook 2026 forecasts demand for 8,500 jets with up to 150 seats over the next two decades. Embraer is an aircraft manufacturer, and its forecast covers a broader geography and aircraft category than U.S. regional-carrier jets. It provides global market context, not an independent count of U.S. regional-jet demand or proof that the FAA’s fleet projection will materialize.
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