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Recent U.S. egg-price spikes were driven chiefly by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), or bird flu, which reduced the number of laying hens and the supply of eggs. Strong seasonal demand added pressure, while grocery prices typically adjust more slowly than wholesale prices. The latest USDA data available here, however, show retail prices falling year over year in August 2026—not continuing to soar.
Why did egg prices rise so sharply?
Bird flu disrupted the supply side of the market. When HPAI infects a flock, affected birds may die or be depopulated to contain the outbreak. Either way, fewer productive laying hens mean fewer eggs available. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) identifies HPAI-related reductions in laying flocks and production as a key driver of recent U.S. egg-price increases. USDA ERS’s Food Price Outlook explains the link between the outbreak and prices.
The scale of the 2024–early 2025 wave was substantial: 50.7 million egg-laying hens were depopulated from mid-October 2024 through early March 2025, according to USDA ERS. That figure describes that specific outbreak period; it is not a count of hens lost in 2026. USDA ERS’s June 2025 analysis of retail egg prices details those losses.
How flock losses turn into higher grocery prices
- Outbreaks reduce the laying flock. Deaths and depopulation leave producers with fewer hens producing eggs.
- Supply tightens. With fewer eggs available, demand has to be met from a smaller supply.
- Wholesale prices react. Seasonal demand and supply disruptions can cause wholesale prices to fluctuate sharply.
- Retail prices follow, often with a delay. Retailers’ contracts and pricing strategies can soften or postpone the effect of short-term wholesale movements.
Timing amplified the 2024–early 2025 disruption: the loss of hens coincided with the approach of winter holidays, when egg demand is traditionally strong. USDA ERS identifies seasonal demand and supply disruptions as sources of wholesale volatility. The agency’s analysis also explains why a wholesale-price swing need not show up immediately at the grocery store.
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Why wholesale and grocery-store prices move differently
Wholesale prices tend to vary more than retail prices. USDA ERS author Grace Grossen writes that wholesale egg prices “tend to vary more than retail egg prices, frequently fluctuating in response to factors such as seasonal demand and supply chain disruptions.” Retail prices are influenced by wholesale prices, but contracts and pricing decisions can mute short-term changes. As a result, a sharp wholesale increase or decline does not guarantee an equally sharp, immediate change on a store shelf. USDA ERS describes this retail-price transmission.
Are egg prices still soaring?
Not in the latest national year-over-year comparison reported here. USDA ERS’s August 2026 summary says retail egg prices were 23.0% lower than in August 2025, although they rose 3.5% from July to August 2026. Those figures are not contradictory: one compares prices with the prior month, the other with the same month a year earlier. The same ERS summary reports that retail egg prices increased 21.9% over 2025. USDA ERS publishes the underlying price comparisons.
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Longer-term annual changes show how quickly the picture can shift: USDA ERS reports retail egg prices rose 32.2% in 2022, 1.4% in 2023, 8.5% in 2024, and 21.9% in 2025. These are U.S. retail figures for the stated years, not predictions or a description of prices at a particular store. A national average can differ from what a shopper sees depending on location, retailer, egg grade, and production method.
Will prices keep falling?
USDA ERS’s September 18, 2026 Poultry & Eggs Market Outlook revised projected 2026 table-egg production upward as the domestic laying flock rebuilds and lowered its projected average egg price for the third quarter based on recent prices. That points to an expected supply recovery, not a guarantee of lower prices at every store or a specific future shelf price. See USDA ERS’s Poultry & Eggs Market Outlook.
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What the available figures do—and do not—show
USDA’s evidence supports HPAI-related flock losses as the primary explanation for the recent multi-year U.S. increases, with seasonal demand and the way retail prices respond to wholesale movements also relevant. It does not assign a precise percentage of the increase to bird flu, demand, retailer pricing, or any other individual factor. Nor do national figures establish what a specific shopper should expect to pay for a particular carton.
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