Fertilizer prices are being pushed higher by disruption to exports and shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, along with elevated energy and input costs. The World Bank’s latest monthly update in this coverage, published October 2, 2026, said its global fertilizer index rose 0.4% in September. Separately, the Bank’s April outlook forecast a 31% increase for 2026 as a whole, including a 60% rise in urea. Those are forecasts, not final annual results, and the September move alone does not establish whether the full-year projection will be met.
What the latest fertilizer-price figures mean
The figures describe different time periods and should not be treated as contradictory. The World Bank’s October 2, 2026 update reported a 0.4% month-over-month increase in its global fertilizer index for September. In April, the Bank had forecast that the index would rise 31% over 2026, with urea prices increasing 60%. The latter figures are projections made earlier in the year, not reported final outcomes.
The Bank also reported that its fertilizer index had increased more than 12% quarter over quarter in the first quarter of 2026. A small September increase does not erase earlier gains, nor does one monthly reading establish the direction of prices for the rest of the year. The index is a global benchmark; it is not a current quote for a particular fertilizer grade, country, retailer, farm, or delivery route. World Bank commodity data
Why fertilizer prices rose
Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz
The World Bank linked the early-2026 surge to export disruption following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The route matters for fertilizer trade and for shipments of inputs used to make fertilizer. Disruptions can therefore affect both the products farmers buy and the materials needed to produce them. World Bank, April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook
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Energy and feedstock costs
Nitrogen fertilizer production is sensitive to natural-gas and other energy costs, so an energy shock can raise the cost of making nitrogen products. Phosphate production can also be exposed to supplies of sulfur and ammonia as well as shipping conditions. When energy, feedstocks, and freight are all under pressure, the effects can spread beyond the fertilizer that is most directly disrupted.
Demand and modeled oil-price spillovers
The Bank also cited resilient global demand as a source of pressure. Its April 2026 outlook estimated that a geopolitical supply shock raising oil prices by 10% can push fertilizer prices to a peak more than 5% higher, typically about a year after the initial oil shock. This is a modeled spillover estimate, not a prediction that every oil shock will produce the same fertilizer-price change or timing. World Bank commodity analysis
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Why fertilizer types have not moved alike
| Fertilizer or measure | What the World Bank reported or projected | What that indicates |
|---|---|---|
| Overall fertilizer index | More than 12% higher quarter over quarter in 2026 Q1; forecast to rise 31% over 2026 in the April outlook; up 0.4% in September, according to the October 2 update. | The index shows broad pressure, but its monthly reading and full-year forecast refer to different periods. |
| Urea | Forecast to rise 60% during 2026 in the April outlook. | Urea had the largest projected increase among the products highlighted, helping drive the broader index forecast. |
| Potash (MOP) | Up more than 5% in 2026 Q1 and nearly 17% year over year, according to the Bank. The April outlook forecast a 12% rise for 2026 followed by a 6% decline in 2027. | The Bank described supply as comparatively comfortable through 2026 and 2027, with stronger supply from several origins and less exposure to Middle East disruption. Forecasts are not final annual results. |
These differences matter when comparing supplier offers: a rise in the overall index does not mean every nutrient formulation has risen by the same amount. The product, formulation, delivery terms, region, and purchase date all affect the price a buyer sees. World Bank commodity data
How the current increase compares with earlier spikes
The World Bank said fertilizer prices rose more than 100% in 2021 and 55% in 2022 amid supply disruptions in Russia and Belarus and high input costs. It characterized the increase projected for 2026 as smaller than those earlier spikes. That comparison does not mean the current rise is painless: higher input costs can still strain farm budgets and affordability. World Bank historical comparison
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Could fertilizer prices come down in 2027?
The World Bank’s April 2026 outlook expected prices to ease in 2027 as exports recovered and new supply came online. That is a conditional outlook, not a guarantee that every product or local price will fall. Local retail or farm-gate costs also depend on formulation, freight, regional availability, and the terms of a buyer’s purchase.
The Bank identified risks that could keep prices higher than its easing path: elevated energy prices, prolonged shipping constraints around the Strait of Hormuz, damage to production or export facilities, renewed Chinese export restrictions, and tight sulfur or ammonia supplies. A recovery in exports and added capacity would support easing; persistent disruption would work against it. World Bank supply-risk analysis
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How to use global fertilizer data when budgeting
For a household budget or farm purchasing decision, treat a global index as context rather than as the price you should expect to pay. Compare offers for the same nutrient formulation and delivery terms, and note when each quote was made. A home-garden bag price is not a reliable stand-in for bulk agricultural input costs.
For farmers, the useful comparison is between like-for-like supplier quotes for the needed grade, quantity, timing, and delivered location. Energy and shipping exposure, regional supply, and export policy can help explain why two products or regions do not track the global index exactly. The World Bank’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics, Indermit Gill, said in the April 28, 2026 press release: “The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation, which will push up interest rates and make debt even more expensive.” World Bank press release, April 28, 2026
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