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What Cassidy’s plan would do
Cassidy’s proposal would create an investment fund separate from Social Security’s trust funds, modeled on the National Railroad Retirement Investment Fund. His office says the fund could cover 60% to 70% of the projected shortfall. That estimate is an advocacy claim; the cited materials do not provide an independent actuarial validation of the fund’s expected returns or its projected contribution. The proposal is not enacted law. Cassidy’s October 5, 2026 statement describes the proposal and his warning about benefit reductions.
What the PROMISE Act does—and does not do
The PROMISE Act is a separate bipartisan proposal intended to establish a congressional process for considering options and acting on Social Security solvency. It does not itself mandate Cassidy’s investment fund, prescribe a benefit formula, or specify a particular mix of tax increases and benefit changes. Cassidy’s office described the act on August 5, 2026.
What the 28.5% figure means
The 2026 Trustees Report presents a scenario in which scheduled benefits for all current and future beneficiaries are reduced by 28.5% beginning in 2034. Under the report’s assumptions, that illustrative change would achieve 75-year solvency. It is one possible adjustment, not a decision by Congress, a benefit reduction already in force, or a prediction that each person will receive exactly 28.5% less on a particular date. Revenue increases or a combination of measures are other possible approaches. The Social Security Administration’s 2026 Trustees Report gives the scenario and its assumptions.
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Why the depletion dates and payable shares differ
Social Security has two relevant trust-fund measures: Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI), which pays retirement and survivors benefits, and the combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance funds (OASDI). The Trustees project different depletion dates and different shares of scheduled benefits payable from continuing income:
| Measure | Projected reserve depletion | Scheduled benefits payable at depletion |
|---|---|---|
| OASI | Fourth quarter of 2032 | 78% |
| Combined OASDI | Third quarter of 2034 | 83% |
These are projections in the 2026 Trustees Report, not fixed deadlines. The SSA’s 2026 Fast Facts & Figures summary also reports combined OASDI depletion in 2034, with income then sufficient for about 83% of costs.
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What happens if reserves are depleted
Reserve depletion does not mean Social Security has no income. Payroll taxes and other continuing income would still be collected, but under the Trustees’ projections that income would not cover all scheduled benefits. The report estimates the payable shares shown above. Any change to benefits or revenue would depend on legislation; the 28.5% scenario is one possible long-range adjustment and should not be confused with the separate OASI depletion projection for 2032.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to assess Cassidy’s proposal
The proposal’s stated mechanism is investment returns from a fund outside the Social Security trust funds. To judge its likely effect against other solvency options, readers would need comparable estimates of expected returns, risk, administrative structure, the duration of any solvency improvement, and who would bear costs or receive protection. The available descriptions establish Cassidy’s concept and his office’s estimate, but do not provide a complete apples-to-apples comparison with revenue increases, benefit changes, or combined approaches.
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