Quick wins for a faster PC:
Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →When the labor market cools, employers generally post fewer openings or hire less briskly, workers change jobs less often, and job seekers may find it harder to turn applications into offers. That can happen without a wave of layoffs or a sharp jump in unemployment. The clearest picture comes from looking at vacancies, hires, quits, layoffs, job starts and labor-force growth together—not relying on one headline number.
What a cooling labor market looks like
“Cooling” describes a loss of momentum in labor demand and worker movement; it is not a precise threshold or a synonym for recession. Employers may still be hiring, but at a slower pace, and workers may have fewer opportunities to move to a better job. Openings are not guaranteed hires: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) counts a position as open only if work is available, it could start within 30 days, and the employer is actively recruiting for it. BLS JOLTS glossary
As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.
For context, the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) release available here covers August 2026 and was published September 29, 2026. The BLS reported 7.1 million openings, 5.2 million hires, 5.1 million total separations, 3.1 million quits, and 1.6 million layoffs and discharges. Most measures were little changed over the month; these figures do not show a one-month collapse. Monthly estimates are preliminary and can be revised. BLS August 2026 JOLTS release
| August 2026 JOLTS measure | Level | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Job openings | 7.1 million | 4.3% |
| Hires | 5.2 million | 3.3% |
| Total separations | 5.1 million | 3.2% |
| Quits | 3.1 million | 1.9% |
| Layoffs and discharges | 1.6 million | 1.0% |
Openings count positions available on the last business day of the month, while hires and separations count payroll changes over the month. The BLS describes vacancies as a complement to unemployment because they measure unmet labor demand. JOLTS and the BLS payroll employment survey use different methods and reference periods, so hires minus separations need not match the short-term change in payroll employment. BLS August 2026 JOLTS release BLS JOLTS glossary
#1 Best Overall
Are employers hiring less, or are fewer people looking?
Both sides can change at once. In January 2026, the BLS reported that the 2025 annual average was 7.1 million openings, 571,000 fewer than in 2024, and that the average openings rate fell from 4.6% to 4.3%. Annual hires declined by 1.5 million to 63.0 million, and annual quits fell by 1.3 million to 38.0 million. Layoffs and discharges rose by 1.2 million to 21.2 million. These are annual averages and totals reported in the earlier release, not the latest monthly estimates. BLS annual 2025 JOLTS data
Employers’ vacancy and hiring measures do not by themselves reveal how many people are seeking work. The Federal Reserve’s 2025 household survey adds a worker-side view: 13% of adults said they started a new job in 2025, down from 15% in 2022, while the share applying for new jobs did not change. The Fed interprets stable applications alongside fewer job starts as evidence that moving into a new job had become harder. These are survey responses, not BLS employer counts. Federal Reserve 2025 household survey
Why a job search can feel harder before layoffs surge
With fewer hires and fewer job starts, applicants may face more competition or wait longer to land a role even if employers are still recruiting. Quits also matter: when fewer people leave jobs voluntarily, fewer positions may open up through turnover. The BLS says the quits rate can indicate workers’ willingness or ability to leave their jobs. In the Fed survey, 8% of adults said they left a job voluntarily in 2025, down from 9% in 2024; 7% said they were laid off, up from 6% in 2024. Among adults under 30, 15% were not working and said they could not find work, compared with 13% in 2024 and 11% in 2023. Those figures describe different groups and measures, so they should not be read as one common unemployment rate. BLS August 2026 JOLTS release Federal Reserve 2025 household survey
The Tool Desk
Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Job seekers should distinguish difficulty finding an offer from a broad increase in layoffs. The August 2026 JOLTS release reported 1.6 million layoffs and discharges, alongside 5.2 million hires; one monthly reading cannot establish an individual’s prospects or predict how long conditions will last. A cooling market can mean fewer easy transitions without making every search unsuccessful.
What cooling may mean for raises and promotions
When outside options are less plentiful, employees may have less leverage to negotiate a raise or leave for a better-paying job. The Fed’s household survey found that 50% of workers reported receiving a raise or promotion in 2025, three percentage points below 2022; 17% said they had asked for one. These measures describe workers’ reports of raises, promotions and requests. They are not the economy-wide rate of wage growth, and they do not mean every worker’s pay fell. The available figures do not establish a current aggregate wage-growth rate. Federal Reserve 2025 household survey
Among adults who changed jobs, 60% said their new job was better in 2025, down from 72% in 2022 and similar to 2024. That is a self-reported assessment of job quality, not an earnings comparison. Federal Reserve 2025 household survey
Rank #4
Why unemployment may move only a little as hiring slows
The unemployment rate depends on both employment and the number of people participating in the labor force. If labor-force growth slows alongside job growth, unemployment may rise only modestly even while hiring momentum weakens. A San Francisco Fed analysis of the period from 2023 through mid-2025 found that job-growth and labor-force-growth trends stepped down together. From the first half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, its adjusted average monthly job-growth measure fell by about another 80,000, while average unemployment rose from 3.9% to 4.1%. The authors attribute the relatively small unemployment change in part to the similarly paced slowdown in labor-force growth. These are the researchers’ adjusted series and analysis, not an unrevised BLS headline series. San Francisco Fed Economic Letter, January 12, 2026
That relationship is why a stable unemployment rate alone cannot show that job-finding conditions are unchanged. The San Francisco Fed authors noted that much of the job growth in the first half of 2025 was concentrated in education and health services, while other broad sectors were flat or contracting; they also pointed to declining labor-force participation as a contributor to slower labor supply. Their analysis cautions that an apparently even stepdown can still conceal fragility.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Should you quit your job while hiring is cooling?
There is no universal answer, and the national figures cannot tell you whether a particular employer or occupation is hiring. If you are considering leaving, separate the decision to pursue a move from the decision to resign. You can explore openings and apply while employed, then weigh a specific offer against your income needs, benefits, savings and tolerance for a gap in pay. Fewer job starts alongside stable applications in the Fed survey is a reason to avoid assuming that a search will be quick, not proof that you should stay in every job.
Quick Recap
- Check demand in your occupation and location rather than treating the national openings count as a personal forecast.
- Compare a written offer’s pay, benefits, schedule and stability with your current role before giving notice.
- If you have no offer, consider whether your savings and essential expenses can cover a longer-than-expected search.
- For a raise or promotion, make a specific request based on your responsibilities and results; the survey shows workers do ask, but it cannot predict an individual employer’s response.
How to read labor-market headlines
- Look at openings and hires alongside layoffs, rather than treating fewer vacancies as evidence of mass job loss.
- Read quits and job starts with applications: fewer moves despite unchanged applications can signal a tougher search.
- Keep wage-growth statistics separate from survey reports about raises, promotions and requests.
- Consider labor-force growth when interpreting unemployment, and note differences by age and industry where available.
- Check each figure’s reference period and release date. JOLTS estimates can be revised as new reports arrive, and annual updates can revise prior years.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
