H.R. 7004 would restrict certain federal officials and employees from trading government- or politics-related prediction-market contracts when they possess, or could reasonably obtain through their official duties, relevant material nonpublic information. It would not prohibit military action or every public employee’s prediction-market trading. Introduced in January 2026, the bill was listed as a proposal referred to House committees, not enacted, in the official record consulted here.
What is the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026?
H.R. 7004, the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, was introduced by Representative Ritchie Torres on January 9, 2026. The introduced bill would make it unlawful for a covered person to knowingly engage in a covered transaction while possessing relevant material nonpublic information, or where the person may reasonably obtain such information while performing official duties. The introduced bill text is a proposal, not an enacted statute.
The bill defines a prediction-market contract broadly as a financial instrument, contract, or derivative tied to whether a future event occurs and offered by a platform engaged in interstate commerce. A covered transaction is the purchase, sale, or exchange of a contract related to government policy, government action, or a political outcome. The text therefore focuses on specified trades and information access, rather than banning prediction markets outright.
Would it ban government officials from betting on Polymarket?
Not across the board. The introduced text covers federal elected officials, House and Senate employees, political appointees, and employees of executive agencies. It applies to government- or politics-related contracts when the covered person knowingly trades while possessing relevant material nonpublic information or could reasonably obtain it through official duties. The bill does not say that every covered person is barred from every prediction-market trade.
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Polymarket is the platform at the center of the reported example, but the bill’s definition is broader than one named company: it refers to prediction-market contracts offered by platforms engaged in interstate commerce. The proposal regulates financial transactions under its stated conditions; it does not prohibit military action or directly constrain a president’s decision to use force.
What was the reported Maduro-related bet?
In a January 2026 announcement, Torres’s office said a new Polymarket account placed more than $30,000 on Nicolás Maduro being removed from office by the end of January and reported a $400,000 payout after the U.S. operation that captured him. Those figures are the sponsor’s account of the wager and payout, not an independently established finding about the trader’s identity or knowledge. The announcement does not establish that the bettor had inside information or committed insider trading. Torres’s release presents the episode as the impetus for the bill.
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Torres’s office said 30 House Democrats joined as co-sponsors at introduction. That figure and the rationale are reported by the bill sponsor, rather than an independent assessment of the alleged trade. The sponsor’s announcement also includes comments from legal and economics scholars. Associated Press reporting later described suspiciously timed wagers around Iran-related events, reported profits, and Torres’s call for a CFTC investigation. Suspicious timing can prompt questions, but does not by itself prove that a trader used material nonpublic information. The AP report should be read as reporting on allegations and concerns, not a finding of wrongdoing.
Has H.R. 7004 become law?
No, based on the official Government Publishing Office record consulted for this article: it listed H.R. 7004 as introduced and referred to two House committees, with the listed action dated January 9, 2026. The live record can change, so readers should check the official entry for any later action. The GPO bill record identifies the proposal and its status.
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Why supporters say prediction-market trading by officials is a concern
Torres described the intersection of prediction markets and federal government as a potential setting for insider trading and self-dealing. The release also quotes Melinda Roth, a visiting associate professor of law at Washington and Lee University School of Law, saying that using material nonpublic information to trade event contracts is wrong, as it is for other financial investments. These are views presented in the sponsor’s announcement, not findings about the Maduro-related account.
Economist Eric Zitzewitz of Dartmouth College emphasized a market-quality concern: in the sponsor’s release, he said profits typically come from participants providing liquidity through limit orders, and that insider trading can reduce liquidity or impair the usefulness of prediction markets as indicators of event probabilities. His comments explain one argument for restricting informed trading; they do not establish that a specific trade involved inside information.
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