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What WASDE tells farmers
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly WASDE report presents supply-and-demand forecasts for U.S. and world wheat, rice, feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley and oats), soybeans, cotton and sugar. Its U.S. outlooks also cover meat animals, poultry and dairy. USDA says these forecasts describe fundamental conditions in commodity markets and inform decisions by farmers, ranchers, businesses and governments.
WASDE is a national and global outlook, not a farm-level marketing plan. It cannot account for your local cash bid, basis, freight, storage costs, contract terms or cash-flow needs. Those factors still matter when deciding whether and when to sell.
How the estimates are prepared
The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) coordinates the process, chairs interagency commodity committees and issues WASDE. The Economic Research Service (ERS) and other USDA agencies contribute analysis. NASS provides most U.S. crop production forecasts and data for livestock production forecasts, along with price and other information. Inputs include NASS surveys, Agricultural Marketing Service market news, Commerce trade data, Foreign Agricultural Service reports and satellite imagery, WAOB weather analysis, Farm Service Agency program information, models, statistical analysis and expert judgment.
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USDA describes the monthly projection process as a two-week, consensus-based effort. WASDE is generally released between the 8th and 12th of the month at noon Eastern Time. That is the usual pattern, not confirmation of a particular future January release date.
Why January deserves close attention
January often brings several USDA releases that can update the information behind supply-and-demand estimates. The exact schedule varies by year, so use the relevant year’s official calendar rather than assuming that reports will appear on a familiar date.
Grain Stocks adds an inventory check
NASS’s quarterly Grain Stocks report combines estimates of stocks held off farms with estimates of stocks held on farms. It is published in January, March, June and September. The January report’s stocks reference date is December 1. The inventory estimate helps show how much grain remains after the first quarter of the marketing year; implied disappearance can, in turn, inform estimates of use.
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For example, in its January 2026 Feed Outlook, ERS cited NASS data showing 13.3 billion bushels of corn in all positions on December 1, 2025, up 10 percent from a year earlier. ERS also reported indicated corn disappearance of 5.3 billion bushels during September–November 2025, the highest for any quarter on record in that report. These are dated historical figures, not estimates for a later January.
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The January Crop Production Annual Summary can update final crop estimates. In the January 2026 example, NASS production data drew on operator-reported surveys collected December 4–27, 2025, with a sample of approximately 73,000 farmers. ERS said the estimates also incorporated field survey information, Farm Service Agency acreage data, and FSA/Risk Management Agency failed-acre information. That sample size describes the inputs for that report; it should not be assumed for every year.
Other reports may arrive alongside them
In the 2026 calendar, NASS listed Crop Production, the Crop Production Annual Summary, Grain Stocks, Rice Stocks, and Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings together for January 12 at noon Eastern Time. That date is historical context only. Check the current calendar to confirm the schedule for the January you are following.
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Prepare your farm’s position before the release
Writing down your position first makes it easier to distinguish a change in the national outlook from a change in what your farm needs to do.
- Choose the relevant commodities and marketing years. WASDE covers multiple commodities and marketing years. Focus on the rows tied to your production, inventory, sales or input exposure.
- Record your farm’s commitments and flexibility. Note expected production, unsold inventory, forward sales, delivery commitments, available storage, storage costs and the timing of cash needs. This is a practical planning checklist, not a USDA-prescribed worksheet.
- Compare the balance-sheet components. Track production and beginning stocks on the supply side, then domestic use, exports and ending stocks. Ask which component changed and whether the change alters the overall balance, rather than reacting to one headline figure.
- Set national figures beside local terms. Compare the outlook with current local cash bids and basis, freight, storage costs and contract terms. Apply your own risk tolerance and cash-flow requirements; a national estimate cannot make that farm-specific judgment for you.
- Verify the release time. Consult the current WAOB/WASDE and NASS calendars for the exact date and time. The general WASDE release window and a prior January schedule are not substitutes for the current year’s listings.
How to read a possible price reaction
Production, inventories, domestic use, exports and ending stocks all help describe market supply and demand. A report that shifts expectations about those factors can matter to prices, but the direction and size of any move cannot be inferred from the report date alone. Markets may already have anticipated an estimate, and other information can affect prices at the same time.
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“This report does not imply that NASS reports are solely responsible for changes to the price level for commodities referenced in the publication.”
— USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Price Reactions After USDA Crop Reports, March 2026
Make month-to-month comparisons consistent
When comparing WASDE editions, keep the commodity and marketing year constant and check the same parts of the balance sheet: production, beginning stocks, domestic use, exports and ending stocks. If a price estimate is relevant, note the assumptions behind it. When translating the national outlook into a farm decision, separately account for local basis, freight, storage and contract conditions.
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