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The 39% figure was a forecast for 2020: direct government payments were projected to equal 39% of U.S. net farm income. It was not a share of farms’ production costs, nor a current estimate. The distinction matters because a separate calculation that included crop-insurance indemnities put the total at 44%.
What the 39% figure measured
In a December 3, 2020 report, Successful Farming said USDA forecast $46.5 billion in direct government payments for that year. The payments were projected to represent 39% of net farm income. In other words, the denominator was farm-sector net income—not gross receipts, total production costs, or the income of a typical individual farm. Read the 2020 report.
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Because the article described a forecast, the figure should be read as what USDA expected in 2020, not as a final observed result or a statistic for 2026. It also does not mean every farm received government support equal to 39% of its own income.
Why the same story also cited 44%
The report gave a second calculation: $52.5 billion, or 44% of farm income, when it added $6 billion in federally subsidized crop-insurance indemnities to the $46.5 billion in direct payments. Crop-insurance indemnities are a distinct category; the report explicitly did not count them as direct payments.
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| Figure in the 2020 report | What it includes | Share and denominator |
|---|---|---|
| $46.5 billion | Forecast direct government payments | 39% of net farm income |
| $52.5 billion | Direct payments plus $6 billion in crop-insurance indemnities | 44% of farm income, as reported |
These figures are not competing estimates of an identical category. The numerator changes when insurance indemnities are included, so comparisons should identify which support programs are counted.
How the forecast compared with earlier years
The 2020 report described the projected 39% share as the largest since 2001, when the corresponding share was 41%. It also cited 65% in 1983 as the highest share in the historical comparison. These are historical comparisons reported in 2020, not current-year measurements.
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A different historical perspective comes from a National Academies review published in 2010. Looking at the decade discussed in that report, it found that government payments averaged roughly 7% of gross farm returns and 27% of net farm income. Those figures use different denominators and a different period from the 2020 forecast, so they should not be treated as directly interchangeable. The review also found that payments varied among farm types and regions; only 38% of farms reported receiving government payments in the 2007 Census of Agriculture. See the National Academies review.
Are farm subsidies still 39% of farm income?
The 39% figure alone cannot answer that. It refers to the 2020 forecast and a specific definition of direct payments. For current U.S. farm-sector figures, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) maintains the Farm Income and Wealth Statistics series, including historical estimates and current-year forecasts. ERS says releases occur three times a year; its late-August or early-September release updates the current-year forecast, and estimates may be revised as new information arrives. The page, updated September 3, 2026, scheduled the next forecast for December 2, 2026; release schedules and figures can change. Check USDA ERS Farm Income and Wealth Statistics.
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When comparing any newer number with the 2020 headline, check four things: whether it counts direct payments alone or also insurance indemnities; whether the denominator is net income, gross receipts, or production costs; whether the figure is a forecast or a later estimate and for which year; and whether it describes the farm sector as a whole or payments received by individual farms.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the figure does—and does not—say about an individual farm
A sector-wide share is an aggregate ratio, not a payment formula or a promise of support to each producer. The National Academies’ finding that only 38% of farms reported receiving payments in the 2007 Census illustrates why an overall farm-income statistic should not be read as a typical farm’s experience. That participation figure is dated and does not establish the share of farms receiving payments today.
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