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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Government borrowing costs rise when investors require a higher yield to hold its bonds. That yield can increase because investors expect higher short-term interest rates, inflation or real rates; demand more compensation for the risks of holding a long-term bond; or see the supply of government debt grow relative to demand. These forces can operate together, and their importance varies by country, maturity and date.
How a bond yield translates into borrowing cost
A government bond promises payments according to its terms. Its market price determines the return implied by those payments: when the price falls, the yield generally rises; when the price rises, the yield generally falls. The yield on newly issued debt is therefore influenced by the returns investors can get on comparable bonds in the market.
For a long-term nominal government bond, a useful framework is to separate the yield into two parts: the expected average path of short-term interest rates over the bond’s life, and a term premium. The expected-rate component is shaped in turn by expectations about real interest rates and inflation.
The term premium is the additional compensation investors require to hold a longer-duration bond rather than repeatedly investing in short-term bills. It can reflect exposure to changing interest rates and inflation, among other influences. In a 2019 speech, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida described it as compensation for taking on the greater interest-rate and inflation volatility associated with a long-duration asset. Clarida’s speech
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What can push government yields higher?
Expectations for short-term rates
If investors expect short-term interest rates to average more over the life of a bond, the expected-rate component of a longer-term yield may rise. Those expectations respond to the outlook for inflation and economic activity, as well as to anticipated monetary-policy decisions. A long-term yield is not simply a forecast of the central bank’s next policy rate: it reflects a longer horizon and includes a term premium.
Inflation and real-rate expectations
Investors generally require a higher nominal return when they expect inflation to erode the purchasing power of future bond payments. Expectations about real rates—the return after accounting for inflation—can also change with the economic outlook and influence nominal yields. The Federal Reserve’s discussion of long-term rates distinguishes expected inflation and real rates from the compensation captured by the term premium. Federal Reserve speech on long-term interest rates
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A larger term premium
Investors may ask for more compensation to hold long-term bonds when uncertainty about future interest rates or inflation increases. The premium can also change as the bonds’ value as a portfolio hedge changes or as investors’ appetite for duration shifts. A higher term premium can therefore lift long-term yields even if expectations for short-term rates have not risen by the same amount.
More debt relative to investor demand
If a government is expected to issue more long-term debt than investors are willing to absorb at prevailing prices, yields may need to rise to attract buyers. The reverse can apply when demand for government securities is strong. Safe-haven demand and central-bank asset purchases have, in some circumstances, put downward pressure on yields. Issuance is one influence among several, not a mechanical predictor of a yield increase.
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Global conditions
Investors allocate money across markets, so foreign demand, policy uncertainty and the amount of debt being issued in multiple countries can affect yields and term premia. The Bank of England cited these forces among the factors behind rising term-premium estimates for advanced economies in its July 2026 report.
Why the term premium is an estimate, not a market quote
A market screen shows a bond’s yield, not a directly observable split between expected future rates and the term premium. Analysts estimate those components using term-structure models and assumptions. Different model definitions and methods can produce different estimates; the Federal Reserve’s model documentation also notes that some definitions may include a convexity premium.
The Federal Reserve describes its three-factor nominal term-structure model as a staff research product, not an official statistical release. Estimates may be delayed, revised or changed when methods change. The documentation also cautions that long-horizon forward rates may not adequately represent expected future short rates. Federal Reserve three-factor model documentation
For that reason, an estimate can help explain a yield move, but it should not be treated as a certain, directly measured causal share. When a report attributes part of a change to the term premium, the country, period and model context matter.
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What recent reports show—and what they do not
United Kingdom: gilts through June 2026
The Bank of England’s July 2026 Monetary Policy Report said 10-year gilt yields rose by around 350 basis points from the start of quantitative tightening in February 2022 to the end of June 2026. Its term-structure estimates attributed around 200 basis points of the increase to term premia, with the remainder accounted for by higher expected rates. The Bank identified a structural reduction in future domestic demand for long-term government debt, economic-policy uncertainty and high issuance across countries as term-premium drivers. These are UK observations and model estimates for that period, not a universal breakdown. Bank of England, July 2026 Monetary Policy Report
United States: Treasury yields through the July 2026 assessment
The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 Monetary Policy Report said nominal Treasury yields had risen since the start of 2026 by about 60 basis points for 2-year securities and around 35 basis points for 10-year securities. It reported that short-term inflation compensation rose sharply after the onset of the Middle East conflict and later retraced; longer-horizon inflation compensation was a touch lower and remained consistent with the Federal Open Market Committee’s inflation objective. These figures describe the report’s midyear assessment, not yields on a later date. Federal Reserve Board, July 2026 Monetary Policy Report
How to compare yields without mixing unlike measures
A yield comparison is most useful when it holds the key reference points steady. Check that the bonds have the same issuer, currency, maturity, yield measure and observation date. Then consider what changed in expectations for policy rates, inflation and real rates; whether estimated term premia shifted; and how issuance, investor demand and market conditions compare.
Short- and long-maturity bonds need not move for the same reasons. Nor does a yield comparison between countries isolate a single cause: each market has its own monetary institutions, currency and inflation outlook. Treat an estimated decomposition as one model-based explanation of a particular move, not a timeless rule.
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