Thanksgiving week is a multi-day selling opportunity, not just Black Friday: shoppers spread activity across Thanksgiving weekend and Cyber Monday. For 2026, the five-day event runs November 26–30. The latest observed benchmark is from 2025, when 202.9 million consumers shopped during those five days; that national participation signals a busy period, not a guarantee that any individual business will sell more.
When is Thanksgiving week in 2026?
The National Retail Federation (NRF) defines the winter holiday season as November 1 through December 31. Its five-day Thanksgiving shopping event begins on Thanksgiving Day and runs through the following Monday. For 2026, that means November 26–30:
- Thanksgiving: Thursday, November 26
- Black Friday: Friday, November 27
- Small Business Saturday: Saturday, November 28
- Cyber Monday: Monday, November 30
NRF notes that shoppers increasingly spread purchases across the holiday season and that retailers have responded with earlier deals. The five-day window is therefore one part of a longer selling season, not its entire duration. NRF’s winter holiday FAQs explain its seasonal definition.
What the latest Thanksgiving-week sales data show
The latest observed results available here are for 2025, reported by NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics. A record 202.9 million consumers shopped from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday. The online and in-store counts overlap: shoppers could use both channels, so they should not be added together as unique consumers.
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| Day or period | Online shoppers | In-store shoppers | What the figures indicate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Five-day event, 2025 | 134.9 million | 129.5 million | Broad activity across both channels; counts are not mutually exclusive. |
| Black Friday, 2025 | 85.7 million | 80.3 million | The busiest day in both channels. |
| Small Business Saturday, 2025 | 63 million | 62.7 million | Substantial participation online and in stores. |
| Sunday, 2025 | not stated (NRF, December 2, 2025) | 32.6 million | In-store shoppers were up 27% from 25.6 million in 2024. |
| Cyber Monday, 2025 | 75.9 million | not stated (NRF, December 2, 2025) | The second-most popular online shopping day of the event. |
Black Friday led, but Saturday and Sunday also drew shoppers, and Cyber Monday remained a major online occasion. The practical takeaway is to compare performance across the full window rather than assume demand is concentrated on one day. See NRF’s December 2, 2025 post-event results.
What shoppers planned versus what they reported buying
NRF’s pre-event survey is evidence of stated intentions, not completed purchases. In a survey of 8,000 adults conducted October 31–November 6, 2025, 70% planned to shop on Black Friday and 40% planned to shop on Cyber Monday. The stated margin of error was plus or minus 1.1 percentage points. Among potential Saturday shoppers—not all consumers—80% said they were considering shopping to support local businesses and Small Business Saturday. Details appear in NRF’s November 20, 2025 pre-event survey release.
Gift-category figures also differ by measure. In the pre-event survey, planned gifts included clothing and accessories (50%), gift cards (43%), and toys (32%). NRF’s post-event report instead described purchases consumers reported making: clothing and accessories (51%), toys (32%), and books and other media (28%). Do not combine the planned-gift percentages with the observed-purchase percentages as if they describe the same behavior.
These national categories are broad signals, not a product forecast for a particular shop. A category’s popularity across U.S. shoppers does not establish that it fits your customers, inventory, or margin.
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How to assess Black Friday sales opportunities and Small Business Saturday ideas
Use the national figures as context, then make decisions from your own business data. Before choosing an offer, compare the following across the same dates in prior years, where records are available:
- Traffic and conversion: Track visits or footfall separately from completed purchases. More visitors do not necessarily mean more sales.
- Channel mix: Compare online orders with in-store transactions, and identify whether customers move between channels.
- Inventory and margin: Check which items are available and calculate what remains after discounts, payment costs, and fulfillment expenses.
- Fulfillment capacity: Determine whether staff, shipping, and pickup operations can handle the orders a promotion could generate.
- Day-by-day results: Measure Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Cyber Monday separately so a strong day does not obscure a weak one.
For Small Business Saturday, supporting local businesses was a stated consideration for many potential Saturday shoppers in NRF’s 2025 survey. A seller can use that as a reason to make its local identity, store hours, and shopping options clear; it is not evidence that a particular promotion will increase sales.
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How to interpret Cyber Monday shopping trends
Cyber Monday drew 75.9 million online shoppers in 2025, while Black Friday had the largest online participation of the five-day period at 85.7 million. This supports treating both days as relevant online opportunities, not assuming Cyber Monday is the only day to prepare for web demand.
Check your own past order volume, conversion rate, inventory position, and delivery or pickup capacity by date. If those records do not show a meaningful difference between days, national participation alone is not a sound reason to shift a large share of stock or discounting to one of them.
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What the 2026 retail forecast can—and cannot—tell sellers
NRF forecast 4.4% annual U.S. retail sales growth in 2026, to $5.6 trillion. That is a full-year projection, not a forecast for Thanksgiving week or the November–December holiday season. It should not be used as an estimate of an individual seller’s sales growth or as a target for a specific event.
For context only, NRF’s November 2025 forecast projected $1.01 trillion–$1.02 trillion in U.S. November–December retail sales, up 3.7%–4.2% over 2024. That was a historical forecast, not a final sales result. These estimates differ in period and status from the consumer participation counts and survey findings. See NRF’s 2025 holiday sales forecast and its 2026 annual retail forecast.
Quick Recap
A practical way to plan the five-day window
- Set the scope: Mark November 26–30, 2026 on the calendar and include the rest of the holiday season in any inventory or cash-flow plan.
- Establish a baseline: Pull your own traffic, sales, conversion, inventory, and margin figures by day and channel. Keep online and in-store results distinct.
- Choose offers selectively: Use category interest as a prompt to review your own customers’ purchasing history, not as a directive to discount every item or stock a nationally popular category.
- Check operational limits: Confirm inventory availability, staffing, shipping, and pickup capacity before promoting an offer.
- Review results by date: Compare actual outcomes with your baseline after the event; treat 2025 national figures as context, not a forecast of your 2026 results.
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