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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minutePitchBook’s December 2024 forecast called the U.S. venture-capital outlook for 2025 “moderately positive,” but the year’s reported figures tell a mixed story. Funding and exit value rose by some measures, while deal counts fell, capital clustered in AI and a small number of large funds, and liquidity pressures persisted. The forecast was about a possible improvement—not a broad recovery for every startup or investor.
What PitchBook forecast for U.S. venture capital in 2025
In its December 2024 outlook, PitchBook wrote: “As a team, our outlook on US VC is moderately positive for 2025.” The forecast anticipated more exits and a moderate uptick in large technology IPOs, which could lift exit value and distributions to limited partners (LPs), the investors who commit money to venture funds.
That optimism was qualified. PitchBook said the bar for improvement was low, expected flat and down rounds to continue, and warned that more companies could shut down or drop out of the funding cycle. Its outlook reflected expectations and risks discussed in late 2024—including inflation, interest rates, public markets, economic growth, unemployment, tariffs and geopolitics. Those were inputs to a forecast, not proof that any one factor caused the results that followed. PitchBook’s 2025 US Venture Capital Outlook was published in December 2024.
How the market looked entering 2025
The National Venture Capital Association’s 2025 Yearbook, published in March 2025 using PitchBook data, put 2024 U.S. venture investment at $215.4 billion across 14,320 deals. U.S. venture firms raised $76.8 billion across 538 funds that year. The same release reported $307.8 billion in available deployable capital and $98 billion in exits across 1,147 deals. These are different measures: investment went to companies, fundraising went to venture funds, deployable capital was available to invest, and exits generated proceeds from sales or listings. NVCA’s 2025 Yearbook release identifies PitchBook as the data provider.
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Was venture capital picking up in 2025?
It depends on what is being measured. Two later reports show more dollars in important categories, but neither supports the claim that financing broadly became easier.
| Measure | Reported result | What it shows |
|---|---|---|
| Startup funding on Carta | Carta reported that startups on its platform raised $119.5 billion in 2025, up 16.9% year over year. | Funding dollars increased in Carta’s platform data. |
| New rounds on Carta | Carta counted 4,859 new rounds in 2025, the lowest annual total in at least six years and 41% below the 2021 activity high. | The higher dollar total came alongside fewer financings, not a broad increase in round activity. |
| Venture-backed exits | NVCA reported $217.1 billion across 1,463 exits in 2025, more than double the prior year’s exit value. | Exit value rose substantially, but NVCA said it was not enough to clear the growing backlog of private companies. |
The funding and round figures above are from Carta’s 2025 year-in-review report, based on activity on Carta. The exit figures are from NVCA’s 2026 Yearbook release, which uses PitchBook data. Their scopes and datasets differ, so the amounts should not be combined as if they were one market-wide series.
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Why funding can rise while deal counts fall
A dollar total can increase even as fewer companies receive financing if capital is concentrated in larger rounds. That distinction matters to founders: a rising aggregate does not show that a typical startup had more access to capital. Carta’s 2025 figures make the contrast visible—funding on its platform rose year over year while its annual round count reached a six-year low.
Concentration also appeared in NVCA’s 2026 Yearbook data. AI captured more than 65% of all venture investment in 2025. That share indicates how strongly one area shaped the aggregate; it does not mean that other sectors received no funding or that every AI company found it easy to raise.
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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchDid exits and fundraising restore liquidity?
Higher exit value did not, by itself, resolve the liquidity problem. NVCA reported $217.1 billion in venture-backed exits across 1,463 deals in 2025, but said the total still did not clear the backlog of private companies awaiting an exit. Its president and CEO, Bobby Franklin, described the contrast as “strong investment on one hand, constrained liquidity on the other,” and said a recovery in exits was critical to restoring balance.
Fundraising was also uneven. NVCA reported that traditional VC fundraising reached $67 billion across 585 funds in 2025. The ten largest funds took $22 billion, or 32.9% of that total, while first-time fund formation fell to 101 funds. A large fundraising total therefore did not mean capital was distributed evenly among fund managers or vintages.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What founders and investors should take from the outlook
- For founders: headline investment totals are not a reliable proxy for the odds of raising a round. Round counts and concentration provide important context.
- For LPs: exit proceeds and distributions are distinct. More exit value does not establish that funds returned enough cash to meet LP liquidity needs.
- For fund managers: aggregate fundraising can mask a difficult market for smaller funds and first-time managers, as the distribution of 2025 fundraising illustrates.
- For market watchers: specify the dataset and measure. Carta platform funding, NVCA/PitchBook investment estimates, fund fundraising, available deployable capital and exit proceeds describe different parts of the market.
For ongoing market analysis, PitchBook describes its platform as covering companies, investors, funds, investments, exits and people. It is an optional specialist research tool, not a prerequisite for understanding the figures here. NVCA and PitchBook also publish the quarterly Venture Monitor; its live series covers 2026 and should not be mistaken for the December 2024 forecast.
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