The Tool Desk
Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →In its July 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), USDA raised its forecast for 2024/25 U.S. corn production and use, but trimmed projected ending stocks by 5 million bushels. The production increase reflected higher planted and harvested acreage—not a higher yield forecast. These were estimates for the 2024/25 marketing year, not final crop results or current forecasts.
What changed in USDA’s July 2024 corn forecast?
USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board described the 2024/25 outlook as “larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and slightly lower ending stocks.” The month-to-month changes were:
| Forecast item | July 2024 change |
|---|---|
| Production | Up 240 million bushels from June |
| Yield | Unchanged at 181.0 bushels per acre |
| Total use | Up 100 million bushels |
| Ending stocks | Down 5 million bushels |
| Season-average farm price | $4.30 per bushel, down 10 cents from June |
The production, use, stock, and price figures are USDA’s July 2024 forecasts for the 2024/25 U.S. corn marketing year, as reported in WASDE-650.
Why did production rise while ending stocks fell?
USDA increased its production estimate after incorporating June acreage data showing more planted and harvested area. It left the yield forecast unchanged at 181.0 bushels per acre, so the production revision came from acreage rather than an assumed improvement in yield.
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At the same time, USDA raised projected total use by 100 million bushels, including higher feed and residual use and exports. Ending stocks represent the supply left after projected use. Because use rose slightly more than supply at the margin, the projected carryover declined 5 million bushels even as the crop forecast grew.
How should the $4.30 price forecast be read?
The $4.30-per-bushel figure was USDA’s July 2024 season-average farm-price forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year, 10 cents below its June forecast. It was a projection, not a realized market price or a guarantee of what an individual farmer would receive.
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Why the report date matters
The July stock change was small, and later estimates should not be folded into that month’s outlook. USDA’s Economic Research Service reported in its January 2025 Feed Outlook that cumulative supply-and-use revisions in that month’s WASDE lowered the 2024/25 corn ending-stocks forecast by nearly 200 million bushels, to 1.5 billion bushels. That later estimate is a separate checkpoint, not the July 2024 figure.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to compare one WASDE report with another
For a meaningful month-to-month comparison, keep the marketing year fixed and examine the same balance-sheet lines in both editions:
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- Production, beginning stocks, imports, and total supply
- Feed and residual use, other domestic use, exports, and total use
- Ending stocks and the season-average farm-price forecast
Check acreage and yield separately when explaining a production revision. That distinction shows whether a change came from the area expected to be harvested or from the crop expected per acre.
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